Fri Mar 20

If you still need to fly amid global travel chaos, here’s what to know

Written by: Steven Leib, Associate Professor in Aviation, CQUniversity Australia

We are now three weeks into the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, which has grown to engulf much of the Middle East. There are few signs the conflict will slow down or stop anytime soon.

The situation has upended air travel. Missile and drone strikes have affected major airports ^[1], key routes through the Middle East have been shut down ^[2] and the cost of jet fuel ^[3] has shot up.

For airlines, these factors mean higher operating costs and reduced capacity. For many travellers, that means fewer options and higher prices.

Some travellers may be in a position to revise, delay or cancel upcoming travel plans. But many others who need to fly for work or personal reasons face high costs or may even be considering complex, unorthodox ^[4] routes.

There are some important implications for how global air travel functions, right now and in the future. But there are also some general practical tips for ordinary travellers to help navigate the uncertainty.

Jet fuel costs soar

For virtually every airline in the world, fuel and labour represent the two highest costs ^[5]. Since the beginning of the conflict, severe energy market disruption ^[6] means the average jet fuel price has nearly doubled ^[7], with little indication ^[8] relief is on the way.

And it’s possible the global energy market crisis could escalate further, as gas plants and gas fields in Qatar ^[9] and Iran ^[10] come under attack.

Right now, because of the increase in fuel prices for many airlines, jet fuel has likely surged to become the number-one cost (if it wasn’t already).

What’s happening with airfares?

Fuel costs aren’t the only factor. For Australians looking to travel to or through the Middle East, the removal of millions of airline seats ^[12] from flight schedules has pushed serious demand onto other routes.

Unsurprisingly, many major airlines have hiked their international fares significantly ^[13]. And they may go up further still. Qantas, for instance, this week said ^[14] it would review its international airfares every two weeks.

Airfares have spiked as a result of the conflict. Hanson Lu/Unsplash ^[15]

Some tickets have appeared at an extraordinarily high price. Cathay Pacific attracted attention ^[16] for advertising business class tickets from Sydney to London (via Hong Kong) for close to A$40,000 return.

This is obviously very expensive. However, it is a natural result of the way most airlines use “dynamic pricing ^[17]”. In essence, airlines are trying to identify (typically by analysing your flight searches) the highest price you’re willing to pay, so they can sell you a ticket at that price.

In a crisis, some might see this as taking advantage of vulnerable passengers. But airlines could argue the system ensures there is a seat there for someone who desperately needs it.

Unfortunately, they rely on the price consumers are willing to pay to demonstrate that level of “need”.

Stuck in a holding pattern

More broadly, the conflict has dramatically altered airlines’ ability to predict their costs. That’s a problem, because seats are usually for sale up to nearly a year in advance.

Will we see a shift in popular flight routes around the world if this conflict drags on? It’s hard to say.

The Middle East is geographically well-positioned to access nearly the entire world with a non-stop flight. It sits at the intersection of several popular international travel corridors, and its airline ownership models typically include government backing (which can help carriers stay operationally and financially stable).

However, if this conflict threatens those advantages in the long term, other airlines may step in, perhaps able to lower their fares over time by boosting their capacity.

If you still need to fly amid global travel chaos, here’s what to know

The Middle East is home to some of the world’s biggest travel hubs, such as Dubai International Airport. Adam Schreck/AP ^[18]

Going the longer way around

Airlines based in Asia are particularly well placed to serve Australians travelling to Europe, though high demand for these routes ^[19] has driven up airfares.

Another option is to sequence together multiple tickets on different carriers. This can lower costs and may add an element of “adventure”.

However, there are some significant risks that could undo any cost savings. For one, the “extras” can really add up. A sequence of self-organised tickets often means additional expenses for:

overnight transits
multiple baggage fees
more meals on the road.

Travellers should also be mindful of visa requirements in transit countries, and any visa fees that apply.

Crucially, the “do-it-yourself” approach often means you are not protected from the impacts of delays or cancellations across multiple tickets on different airlines.

Other general tips

For those who are planning travel in the next couple of months, most carriers based in the Middle East are selling tickets with a reduced flight schedule to accommodate operational restrictions.

But given ongoing uncertainty, these schedules may not be as reliable as passengers would typically expect.

Buying flexible fares and travel insurance ^[21] can help alleviate the effects of travel disruptions. But they introduce added costs.

What about those already booked, but anxious about whether they’ll be able to fly? Some airlines have cancellation or rebooking policies for passengers affected by the conflict for travel within a specified window of time.

Airlines may offer fee waivers, free rebooking or penalty-free cancellations.

But those whose dates aren’t eligible shouldn’t proactively cancel their flights themselves ^[22]. Waiting for the airline to formally say, “we can’t take you there” gives you the best chance of ensuring it remains responsible for rebooking, a refund and other accommodations.