1. Asbestos contamination in children’s sand products & school shutdowns

What’s happened

In November 2025, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) issued a nationwide recall of children’s coloured play sand products after laboratory tests found traces of asbestos (specifically tremolite and chrysotile) in samples.

The products included brands like Kadink Sand, Educational Colours Rainbow Sand, Creatistics Coloured Sand, and were sold at major retailers such as Kmart, Target, Officeworks, and others between 2020 and 2025.

In the ACT alone, more than 70 public schools were temporarily closed to allow for product removal, testing and cleaning.

In South Australia, about 139 school sites have been identified as having the contaminated sand in some form (“contained” or “loose”). Other jurisdictions (NT, NSW, Tasmania) also reported affected sites and responded with alerts and limited closures.

Authorities emphasise that the risk remains low for airborne or respirable fibres if the sand hasn’t been disturbed. But because the sand was used in schools for sensory and craft play, the precautionary response has been significant.

Why it matters

• Health & safety: Asbestos is a known carcinogen and exposure (especially to fine fibres) poses serious health risks over long periods. Although no airborne fibres were confirmed yet, the use of the product in schools elevates concern.

• Supply chain & product safety trust: These are low-cost educational/arts materials widely distributed to children. A failure in quality control and import/retail oversight shakes trust in retailers, suppliers and regulators.

• Operational disruption & cost: Hundreds of schools and early-learning centres may face closures, remediation costs, professional removal services, and logistical disruption for students and staff.

• Equity and system resilience: Schools in less-resourced areas may struggle more with clean-up, alternate classrooms, learning loss. Also reflects how imported goods (and especially low-cost/discount items) may carry undisclosed risk.

• Regulatory and reputational risk: Retailers involved face recalls, brand damage, and possible litigation. Producers/importers may face regulatory action. For regulators, this incident underscores the importance of product-safety surveillance.

What to watch

• Whether full airborne fibre testing at all affected sites confirms no significant exposure risk, or if problem spots emerge.

• The cost of remediation: how many schools remain closed, how long the clean-up takes, who pays (government, vendor, retailer).

• Whether this triggers policy reform: stricter testing/import-controls for children’s sensory materials; tighter retailer accountability; more rigorous supply-chain transparency.

• How schools alter procurement: will there be a shift away from import-led cheap materials toward safer certified domestic products? Will consumers/parents pull back on low-cost craft kits?

• Legal or consumer-class-action responses: if any exposure or long-term health issues arise, whether parents or teachers pursue claims.

2. Coal-export vulnerability as South Korea and other markets shift

What’s happened

The South Korea government, speaking at the COP30 climate conference, announced it will phase out all domestic coal-fired power plants by 2040, and accelerate renewables/nuclear to back fill. The Guardian This is significant because South Korea has been one of Australia’s largest importers of thermal coal.

Meanwhile, independent analysts highlight that Australia’s thermal coal export outlook is increasingly bleak, with key markets signalling long-term decline in demand.

Data show that in recent months South Korea shifted large volumes of its imports away from Australia: e.g., August 2025 data show Australia’s supply to South Korea dropped significantly, with Russia and Indonesia gaining market share (Australia’s coal arriving at higher cost than competitors).

Why it matters

• Economic risk: Australia has been heavily reliant on fossil-fuel exports (including thermal coal) both for regional jobs, state revenue and export income. A major buyer phasing out coal by 2040 signals structural risk.

• Industrial transition urgency: If coal export markets contract, Australia must pivot toward other export growth sectors (e.g., green manufacturing, critical minerals, hydrogen) to prevent stranded-asset scenarios.

• Trade & competitiveness: Australia is facing competition (Russia, Indonesia) in coal markets due to cost/price pressures. The cost disadvantage and transport/port delays are eroding Australia’s competitive edge.

• Regional/community impact: Coal mining towns, regional economies dependent on exports may face job losses, infrastructure decline or need large-scale transition support.

• Policy & reputational implications: This intensifies the climate/energy debate domestically: if key markets are moving away from coal, then supporting coal-heavy domestic policy appears increasingly misaligned with global trends.

What to watch

• Whether the Australian government and mining/export industry accelerate plans for diversification: e.g., green exports (hydrogen, minerals), value-adding manufacturing, or repurposing coal infrastructure.

• How quickly coal-export contracts with countries like South Korea are wound down, renewed or replaced with newer commodity/business models.

• Whether regional state governments announce just-transition packages (job retraining, infrastructure investment, economic diversification) for coal-dependent areas.

• Port/infrastructure reforms: can Australian coal ports, margins and logistics costs be improved to retain competitiveness, or is structural disadvantage baked-in?

• Global market developments: if more major importers (Japan, Korea, parts of SE Asia) accelerate coal phase-outs, the window for thermal-coal exports may shrink rapidly.

3. Defence budget concerns: the AUKUS nuclear-submarine programme cost estimate

What’s happened

A recent report from the UNSW Canberra Naval Studies Group has strongly criticised the current cost estimate for Australia’s AUKUS Pillar I nuclear-submarine programme (approx. AUD $368 billion) as “inadequately” costed and under-accounting for the full demands on the defence budget.

The report points out that the defence budget is planned to rise to about 2.33 % of GDP by 2033-34, but that may still be insufficient to deliver the broad capability upgrades alongside the submarine programme.

Other analyses note that in recent years the programme’s forward estimate has increased by at least AUD $6 billion in just the forward years to 2029.

Why it matters

• National security & strategic posture: The submarine capability is part of Australia’s long-term strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific. Ensuring it is delivered on time and on budget is crucial.

• Budget/sustainment risk: Big defence procurement programs historically carry large cost overruns, delays and supply-chain issues. If this happens here, other parts of defence capability (or broader government spending) may be squeezed.

• Opportunity cost: Resources channelled into this programme may limit spending elsewhere — health, education, infrastructure, regional development. Questions arise about priorities.

• Transparency and accountability: With such large sums, public scrutiny is high. Ensuring independent auditing and transparent costing is critical for public trust.

• Industrial/workforce implications: The programme involves high-skill workforce, ship-building, nuclear infrastructure (which is new territory for Australia). Ensuring readiness and ramp-up is a major challenge.

What to watch

• Will the government commission a full, independent audit of the submarine programme cost and timeline (as recommended by UNSW)?

• How will the next Defence White Paper update budget and capability allocations? Will other projects be deferred to fund this?

• Are schedule delays or cost-overruns emerging early (which often portend larger issues)?

• What industrial strategy announcements will link to the submarine programme (shipyard build-up, nuclear regulatory regime, workforce training) and how will that roll out?

• What is the political framing: will opposition/political stakeholders raise concerns about defence priorities vs domestic needs?

4. Banking sector under scrutiny: the “big four” and parliament — interest rates, fees, practices

What’s happened

The House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics has convened public hearings where the CEOs of Australia’s “big four” banks (Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac Banking Corporation, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and National Australia Bank (NAB)) are facing questioning around practices such as use of artificial intelligence, scam prevention, fee refunds (particularly to low-income customers), and how interest-rates and home-loan deposit schemes are being managed.

In recent past the banks have faced major fines and regulatory actions (e.g., for misconduct, excess fees, incorrect reporting).

Why it matters

• Consumer vulnerability: Many Australians are under cost-of-living pressure; banking fees, interest rates, home-loan access all affect millions. If banks are perceived as unfair, that erodes trust.

• Competition & market dynamics: The “big four” dominate the banking space in Australia; questions of competition, pricing transparency, and innovation (or lack thereof) are central to broader fintech/regulatory debates.

• Regulation & oversight: Parliament’s scrutiny can lead to regulatory reforms: fee caps, refund obligations, improved AI/phone scams protections, better transparency.

• Macro financial stability: Banks are a core part of Australia’s financial system; poor governance practices can undermine confidence in the sector and trigger broader economic implications.

• Housing & lending interface: With home-loan deposit schemes (e.g., five-per-cent deposit first-home buyer schemes) and mortgage stress in parts of Australia, banks’ behaviour around lending is material for the housing market and broader economy.

What to watch

• What recommendations emerge from the committee hearings: fee reform, mandatory refund policies, enhanced scam prevention obligations.

• How banks respond: Will they proactively reform, announce refund schemes for impacted customers, or publicly push back?

• Whether government or regulator (Australian Securities & Investments Commission – ASIC) takes further action (enforcement, new rule-making) as a result.

• Impact on lending/housing: Will banks tighten or loosen criteria, adjust interest rates or deposit requirements in response to external scrutiny?

• Consumer sentiment: Will this lead to more switching of banks, uptake of fintech alternatives, or growth of challenger banks?

5. Domestic politics & the climate/energy policy culture war

What’s happened

Late in 2025 the Liberal Party of Australia formally announced it would abandon its previously committed target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 — a major departure from past policy.

Similarly, the National Party of Australia earlier formally moved to scrap the net-zero target, signalling that their emissions reduction strategy would instead be more aspirational and less target-driven.

The Opposition (Liberal/Nationals Coalition) unveiled a new “affordable energy” policy emphasising continued use of coal and gas, lifting or reconsidering bans on nuclear power, and focusing on energy-cost reduction over emissions targets.

Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull publicly criticised the Coalition’s stance, describing it as “fact-free, reality-free culture war” over climate.

Meanwhile, business and energy industry leaders warned that abandoning net zero does not equate to lower bills and may hamper investment certainty and grid transition.

Why it matters

• Policy certainty & investment climate: Energy and climate policy underpin major infrastructure, utility, mining and manufacturing investment decisions. A shift away from clear targets introduces uncertainty.

• Electoral & political consequences: Voters care about energy costs, climate change, jobs and regional outcomes. The politics of climate/energy is now a dividing line, especially between urban/younger voters and regional/fossil-fuel-dependent communities.

• Economic & industrial transition: Australia is at a crossroads: whether to lean into green manufacturing/exports or extend fossil-fuel lifetimes. The policy direction adopted now will affect Australia’s competitive positioning globally.

• International credibility: By moving away from net-zero commitments, Australia risks its standing in climate diplomacy and could impact trade, foreign investment, or reputation with global partners.

• Societal/cultural dimension: The debate is not solely technical but ideological — coal vs renewables, cost vs environment, urban vs regional. The framing as a “culture war” indicates deeper societal fault-lines.

What to watch

• Whether the government (Labor) responds with sharper policy steps to lock in emissions targets and transition pathways, or whether they moderate to avoid electoral backlash.

• The behaviour of private-sector investment: will energy companies continue large-scale renewables/storage builds, or will they hold back until policy clarity returns?

• Assessment of cost impacts: Given industry warnings, will electricity prices come down as the Coalition claims, or will disruptions/costs persist?

• Regional/industrial responses: How will coal/gas-dependent communities react? Will there be new initiatives for regional transition, or push-back?

• Major upcoming policy or regulatory announcements: e.g., changes to the energy market framework, subsidies/taxes for fossil fuels, nuclear legislation, new export/industrial strategy announcements.

Final thoughts

These five issues — product safety (asbestos in school sand), export-industry risk (coal export vulnerability), defence strategy and cost risk (AUKUS submarines), financial sector integrity (banking hearings) and the politics of energy/climate policy — may appear disparate, yet they share common threads:

• They all reflect structural change — in supply chains, export markets, national security, financial regulation, and energy transitions.

• They challenge trust — in institutions (retailers, regulators), in markets (coal export lifeline), in defence promises, in banking, and in political leadership.

• They carry interdependencies: For example, if coal export revenue declines (#2), regional economies suffer, which feeds into politics (#5) and budgets (affecting defence #3 and schooling/infrastructure #1).

• They matter for businesses and consumers alike: Whether you’re a retailer sourcing play sand, a coal-export miner, a defence contractor, a banking customer, or a household worried about electricity/bills — these issues ripple across society.