World

Wed Apr 22

Slump for Labor in YouGov survey, but not in other federal polls

Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

While a federal YouGov poll has Labor’s primary vote down three points to a tie with One Nation, that hasn’t been the case in any other federal poll ^[1] this week, with Newspoll, Resolve and Morgan all much better for Labor. A Farrer byelection poll has given One Nation’s David Farley a 52.7–47.3 lead over independent Michelle Milthorpe.

A Victorian state Resolve poll gives the Coalition a two-point primary vote lead over Labor with 21% for One Nation. The Coalition’s lead would probably be extended after preferences.

A national YouGov poll ^[2] for Sky News, conducted April 14–21 from a sample of 1,500, gave Labor 27% of the primary vote (down three since the early April YouGov poll ^[3]), One Nation 27% (up two), the Coalition 20% (steady), the Greens 14% (up one), independents 5% (down one) and others 7% (steady).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 52–48, a three-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 53–47, a two-point gain for the Coalition.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -19, with 57% dissatisfied and 38% satisfied. Angus Taylor’s net approval was down four points to -5 (43% dissatisfied, 38% satisfied). Albanese led Taylor as better PM by 44–39 (44–36 previously). Albanese led Pauline Hanson as preferred PM by 50–39.

By 63–13, respondents would be willing to spend $20 billion to boost Australia’s fuel reserves. By 57–21, they supported increasing gas and oil exploration despite net zero targets.

Morgan poll and additional Resolve questions

A national Morgan poll ^[4], conducted April 13–19 from a sample of 1,620, gave Labor 30.5% of the primary vote (up 0.5 since the April 6–12 Morgan poll), the Coalition 23% (up 0.5), One Nation 21.5% (down three), the Greens 13.5% (up one) and all Others 11.5% (up one).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 55.5–44.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.

I previously covered ^[5] the national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. In additional questions ^[6], US President Donald Trump’s net likeability has slumped 13 points since November 2025 to -43 with Australians (62% have a negative view, 19% positive).

On Trump, 17% said they liked him, 22% didn’t like him but thought him effective (down seven since November 2025) and 52% didn’t like him and didn’t think him effective (up “significantly”).

On Albanese’s national address, by 51–49 respondents said they had not watched it. By 63–34, they were not reassured by the address.

Farrer seat poll

The federal byelection in former Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer is on May 9. Michelle Grattan reported ^[7] a Farrer seat poll by uComms for independent Michelle Milthorpe’s campaign. This poll was conducted April 9–10 from a sample of 1,116. Seat polls are unreliable, and polls for a candidate will often be biased in that candidate’s favour.

This poll gave One Nation’s David Farley a 52.7–47.3 lead over Milthorpe, from primary votes of 30.9% Farley, 30.0% Milthorpe, 16.1% Liberals, 7.1% Nationals and 3.8% Greens with 7.9% undecided. If this poll is accurate, Farley and Milthorpe will be the top two, with Farley likely to win after preferences.

Victorian Resolve poll

The Victorian state election is in late November. A Resolve poll ^[9] for The Age, conducted with the federal March and April Resolve polls from a sample of 1,047, gave the Coalition 29% of the primary vote (down one since the February Resolve poll ^[10]), Labor 27% (down one), One Nation 21% (up ten), the Greens 10% (down two), independents 7% (steady) and others 6% (down five).

The Victorian Resolve polls are an average of polling in two months. In January, Resolve didn’t list One Nation as a separate option, so they were just in “others”. A graph of the individual monthly readings from February to April (samples just over 500) had One Nation at 22% in February, 19% in March and 23% in April.

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls. Applying preference flows from the 2025 federal election would give the Coalition about a 51.5–48.5 lead over Labor.

Liberal leader Jess Wilson had an unchanged 39–20 preferred premier lead over Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan. Wilson’s net likeability rose four points to +18, making her the most popular Victorian Liberal since Resolve started polling five years ago.

In a question on preferred Labor leader, 18% selected Allan, 13% Deputy Premier Ben Carroll and 10% Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams, while 59% didn’t select any Labor candidate.

By the November election, Labor will have governed in Victoria for the last 12 years and 23 of the last 27. It’s likely an “it’s time” factor will help the Coalition.

The byelection for the Victorian Liberal-held seat of Nepean ^[11] is on May 2. At the 2022 state election, the Liberals defeated Labor in Nepean by 56.4–43.6. Labor is not contesting the byelection, with the main contenders likely to be the Liberals, a teal independent and One Nation.