Wed Nov 19

One Nation’s surge continues in Redbridge poll, but Labor dominant

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

One Nation surges to a new record 18% in a federal Redbridge poll as the Coalition falls to 24%, but Labor dominates with 38%. In Victoria, the final poll of Brad Battin’s Liberal leadership had the Coalition narrowly ahead.

A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll ^[1] for The Financial Review, conducted November 7–13 from a sample of 1,011, gave Labor a 56–44 lead by respondent preferences, a two-point gain for Labor since the September Redbridge poll.

Primary votes were 38% Labor (up four), 24% Coalition (down five), 18% One Nation (up four), 9% Greens (down two) and 11% for all Others (down one). The Coalition’s primary vote matched the record low they had in the late October Newspoll ^[2], while One Nation’s 18% is a new record high for them in any national poll.

By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about 56.5–43.5. Anthony Albanese led Sussan Ley as preferred PM by 40–10, with 28% for “neither”, 9% “about the same” and 13% unsure.

Favourable ratings were given for Albanese (39–37 unfavourable), Ley (34–13 unfavourable), One Nation leader Pauline Hanson (45–32 unfavourable) and Greens leader Larissa Waters (13–6 unfavourable). It’s likely these included neutral or never heard of ratings that were not disclosed.

Instead of Labor versus Coalition issue questions, this poll asked which of Labor, the Coalition, One Nation or the Greens would be best to handle various issues. On cost of living, Labor had 30%, the Coalition 21%, One Nation 11% and the Greens 7%.

One Nation led on rate of immigration with 27%, with Labor at 20%, the Coalition 19% and the Greens 4%. The Greens led on climate change with 27%, with Labor at 18%, the Coalition 11% and One Nation 9%.

The Coalition led One Nation by just six points in this poll. In the late October Newspoll, the Coalition led by nine points, but the early November Resolve poll still had the Coalition ahead of One Nation by 17 points.

This poll was conducted during a period when the Liberals were debating their approach to net zero, but before the decision to abandon the net zero emissions target by 2050 was announced ^[3].

Additional federal Resolve and Newspoll questions

I previously covered the early November national Resolve poll ^[4] for Nine newspapers. In additional questions regarding net zero by 2050 ^[5], 26% thought Australia should adhere to the target and do its utmost to meet it, 28% keep it as an aspiration but not a binding law, 19% abandon the target but still take action on emissions where affordable and 12% abandon the target and take little action.

Overall, that’s 54–31 in favour of keeping net zero, but Coalition voters favoured abandoning net zero by 47–41. By 49–22, respondents did not think Australia would achieve its target of reducing carbon emissions by 43% by 2030.

One Nation’s surge continues in Redbridge poll, but Labor dominant

Federal Labor, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, remains dominant in the polls. James Ross/AAP ^[6]

By 43–28, respondents were in favour of Australia becoming a republic ^[7] (38–25 in September). This is the highest support for a republic since Resolve started tracking this question in January 2022.

King Charles’ net favourability improved eight points since September to +16, but former prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s net favourability was -46. By 61–14, respondents thought Andrew should be removed from the line of succession.

In additional questions from the late October Newspoll, 64% wanted Australia to accept fewer immigrants than now ^[8], 26% the same number as now and just 10% more immigrants than now. On the impact of immigration, 23% thought it beneficial for most Australians, 20% harmful for most Australians and 55% said there was a mix of benefit and harm for most Australians.

Freshwater October poll

Full details of a national Freshwater poll for The Daily Telegraph can be downloaded here ^[9]. This poll was taken October 15–20 from a sample of 1,530. It gave Labor a 55–45 lead by respondent preferences, from primary votes of 33% Labor, 31% Coalition, 14% Greens, 10% One Nation and 11% for all Others.

Freshwater’s final poll before the 2025 election ^[10] gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote (actual 31.8%). It overstated the Coalition’s primary vote by more than any other pollster.

Albanese led Ley by 48–31 as preferred PM. Albanese’s net favourable was -7, while Ley’s was -5. Other politicians and parties asked for were between net zero and -8 net favourable, with the exceptions of Liberal MP Andrew Hastie (+4), National MP Barnaby Joyce (-11), the federal Greens (-15) and Donald Trump (-36).

Final Victorian poll before Battin dumped as Liberal leader

On Tuesday Jess Wilson replaced Brad Battin ^[11] as Victorian Liberal leader after a leadership spill. The Herald Sun released a Freshwater poll ^[12] that day that gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, from primary votes of 37% Coalition and 30% Labor, with no other primary votes given. This poll was conducted November 14–17 from a sample of 1,217.

Battin had a net favourability of +15 while Labor premier Jacinta Allan was at -28. Battin led Allan as preferred premier by 45–34. By 60–26, respondents thought the Allan government was doing a bad job. Only 34% thought Labor deserved to be re-elected, while 54% said it was time to give Battin and the Liberals a chance.

The next Victorian election is in November 2026. Despite dismal ratings for Allan and a preferred premier deficit to Battin, Labor has been competitive in Victorian polls since Labor’s surprise landslide at the May federal election. Normally the preferred premier/PM measure favours incumbents compared with voting intentions.

By the next election, Labor will have governed in Victoria for the last 12 years and 23 of 27 years since 1999. There is probably an “it’s time” factor.