Wed Jan 21

Morgan poll has One Nation surging at Coalition’s expense; Trump’s net approval in negative double digits

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

One Nation continues to surge after the Bondi terror attack, as a Morgan poll has them gaining six points at the Coalition’s expense.

A national Australian Morgan poll ^[1], conducted January 12–18 from a sample of 1,630, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5 lead by respondent preferences, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the January 5–11 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 28.5% Labor (down 1.5), 24% Coalition (down 6.5), 21% One Nation (up six), 13.5% Greens (steady) and 13% for all Others (up two). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 53–47, a one-point gain for Labor.

It’s very unlikely One Nation actually surged six points in one week, and much more likely the previous poll was a pro-Coalition outlier. Resolve is now the only poll that gives the Coalition a clear lead over One Nation (ten points), with all other recent polls now between a one-point lead for One Nation (Newspoll) and four-point Coalition lead (Fox & Hedgehog ^[2]).

Morgan also had a special SMS poll on Australia Day ^[3] that was conducted January 14–16 from a sample of 1,311. By 72–28, respondents thought January 26 should be known as “Australia Day”, not “Invasion Day” (68.5–31.5 two years ago). By 60.5–39.5, they thought Australia Day should not be moved from January 26 (58.5–41.5 previously).

Further results from Resolve poll

I covered the Australian national Newspoll and Resolve poll on Monday ^[4]. In further questions from the Resolve poll for Nine newspapers ^[5], supported a royal commission following Bondi by 61-10 (change from 48–17 in late December). By 37–35, respondents thought social cohesion was good rather than poor (37–30 in late December ^[6]).

On gun laws, 66% wanted them toughened (down ten since late December), 21% kept as they are (up 11) and 7% wanted gun laws relaxed (up one). A big majority still wants tougher gun laws, but right-wing voters are now more opposed than in late December. The Coalition’s opposition to Labor’s gun control laws ^[7] has probably contributed to increased public opposition.

NSW Resolve poll has strong support for post-Bondi measures

The New South Wales Resolve poll would normally have combined results from the early December and January federal Resolve polls. But the early December poll was pre-Bondi, and it appears The Sydney Morning Herald wants to wait for a complete post-Bondi poll before giving voting intentions.

What we have are questions from the January NSW sample ^[8] of 550. By 49–19, respondents thought Labor Premier Chris Minns and the state government had had a strong rather than weak response to Bondi. By 67–16, they supported the state government’s gun reforms.

Trump’s ratings in negative double digits after one year

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s US net approval has been in negative double digits since late October. Trump became United States president for a second time on January 20, 2025. A year into his second four-year term, Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls ^[9] is -13.0, with 55.0% disapproving and 42.0% approving.

Trump recorded a positive net approval in Silver’s aggregate at the start of his term, but his net approval went negative last March. Since late October, Trump’s net approval has been in negative double digits, with a low of -15.0 in November.

Silver has ratings for past presidents since Harry Truman. At this point in their presidencies, Trump’s net approval is ahead of only his own first term, with Joe Biden the next worst at -12.0 net approval.

On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -9.5 on immigration, -15.6 on trade, -15.9 on the economy and -25.2 on inflation. Recently, Trump’s net approval on immigration has dropped while his net approval on the other three issues has risen.

Trump’s ratings on immigration may have fallen because of the fatal shooting of Renee Good ^[10] by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent on January 7. On other issues, Trump’s ratings may have risen due to the continued strong stock market.

The benchmark S&P 500 stock market index ^[11] has risen 7.8% in the last six months, hitting a new peak on January 12, although it slumped 2.1% in last night’s session owing to Trump’s threats of tariffs ^[12] over Greenland. Trump’s ratings are unlikely to become very poor unless either the stock market or the broader US economy deteriorates markedly.

In a recent Ipsos poll for Reuters ^[13], by 47–17 Americans disapproved of US efforts to acquire Greenland, and by 71–4 they thought it was not a good idea to take Greenland using military force.

At midterm elections this November, all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election. In Fiftyplusone’s aggregate of the national generic ballot ^[14], Democrats lead Republicans by 43.6–39.8.

I wrote on January 7 that if Democrats ^[15] win the national popular vote by the 3.8 points they lead by in current polls, they would be very likely to gain control of the House, but not the Senate. The two senators per state rule skews Senate elections towards low-population, rural states.