Mon Jul 17

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 12–15 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 55–45 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger ^[1].

Labor’s gain came despite a two-point fall in their primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition also down one to 34%. The Greens and One Nation benefitted, with both up a point, to 12% and 7% respectively, and all Others were also up one to 11%.

In the last two Newspolls, Labor may have been unlucky in the two party rounding given the primary votes. This time Labor was probably lucky to get their 55–45 lead from the primary votes.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings were nearly unchanged, with 52% satisfied (steady) and 41% dissatisfied (down one), for a net approval of +11. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval was down two points to -13. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 54–29, up from 52–32 previously.

The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since the first Newspoll of this term in July 2022. Newspoll data is from The Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack ^[2]. Points on the graph are individual poll results, with a trend line fitted using the statistical software Minitab.

Albanese net approval in Newspoll.

Albanese’s net approval is well down from the over +30 he had in late 2022. It’s likely concerns about high inflation and interest rates have contributed to Albanese’s slide.

While Labor’s lead in Newspoll increased, it dropped in last week’s Essential ^[3] and Morgan polls. Overall Labor continues to hold a commanding poll lead.

Support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament dropped again in Newspoll, with “no” to the Voice now ahead by 48–41, from a 47–43 “no” lead three weeks ago. Here is an updated version of the 2023 Voice polls by pollster graph that I first published last week ^[4].

Voice polls.

Morgan poll: 54.5–45.5 to Labor

In last week’s Morgan federal poll ^[5], conducted July 3–9 from a sample ^[6] of 1,410, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 35% Coalition, 34.5% Labor, 12.5% Greens and 18% for all Others.

LNP holds Fadden at byelection with small swing to LNP

At Saturday’s federal byelection ^[7] for the Queensland seat of Fadden, the Liberal National Party defeated Labor by 63.2–36.8, a 2.5% swing to the LNP since the 2022 federal election.

Primary votes were 48.9% LNP (up 4.3%), 22.1% Labor (down 0.3%), 8.9% One Nation (up 0.3%), 7.4% Legalise Cannabis (new) and 6.2% Greens (down 4.5%). None of the remaining eight candidates won more than 1%. This was a dismal result for the Greens, while One Nation failed to benefit from the absence of the UAP (6.6% in 2022).

Analyst Kevin Bonham ^[8] said the average swing at an opposition-held seat at a byelection that is contested by both major parties is about 1% to the opposition. The average swings in government-held seats are higher owing to the loss of the sitting MP’s personal vote. So the LNP outperformed the average.

In April, Labor’s gain of Aston at a federal byelection was only the second time a federal government had gained a seat from the opposition at a byelection. The two party swing to Labor at Aston ^[9] of 6.4% contrasts with the small swing to the LNP in Fadden.

Aston is located in metropolitan Melbourne, and Labor’s upset win was a continuation of a trend against the Liberals in Australia’s big cities. The Liberals lost four Melbourne seats at the 2022 election, two to Labor and two to teal independents.

Fadden is based on the Gold Coast and is not part of Brisbane. While Australia’s big cities are trending to the left, the rest of Australia is not. Overall, the left trend in our big cities is favourable to Labor, owing to the high percentage of Australia’s population that lives there.

Turnout at the Aston byelection was 85.6%, while in Fadden turnout is currently 67.5% and is likely to only make the low 70s.

UK byelections and Spanish election upcoming in next week

I wrote for The Poll Bludger ^[12]last Wednesday that there will be three United Kingdom byelections in Conservative-held seats this Thursday. While the Conservatives won all three seats by large margins at the 2019 election, there has been a massive national swing to Labour since.

The Spanish election is next Sunday, and the right-wing parties (People’s and Vox) are expected to defeat the governing left-wing parties (Socialists and Sumar). The right is also ahead in New Zealand, where an election is due in October. The June Greek election was a disaster for the left.