The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
The Times Real Estate

.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

  • Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 12–15 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 55–45 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger[1].

Labor’s gain came despite a two-point fall in their primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition also down one to 34%. The Greens and One Nation benefitted, with both up a point, to 12% and 7% respectively, and all Others were also up one to 11%.

In the last two Newspolls, Labor may have been unlucky in the two party rounding given the primary votes. This time Labor was probably lucky to get their 55–45 lead from the primary votes.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings were nearly unchanged, with 52% satisfied (steady) and 41% dissatisfied (down one), for a net approval of +11. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval was down two points to -13. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 54–29, up from 52–32 previously.

The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since the first Newspoll of this term in July 2022. Newspoll data is from The Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack[2]. Points on the graph are individual poll results, with a trend line fitted using the statistical software Minitab.

Albanese net approval in Newspoll.

Albanese’s net approval is well down from the over +30 he had in late 2022. It’s likely concerns about high inflation and interest rates have contributed to Albanese’s slide.

While Labor’s lead in Newspoll increased, it dropped in last week’s Essential[3] and Morgan polls. Overall Labor continues to hold a commanding poll lead.

Support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament dropped again in Newspoll, with “no” to the Voice now ahead by 48–41, from a 47–43 “no” lead three weeks ago. Here is an updated version of the 2023 Voice polls by pollster graph that I first published last week[4].

Voice polls.

Morgan poll: 54.5–45.5 to Labor

In last week’s Morgan federal poll[5], conducted July 3–9 from a sample[6] of 1,410, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 35% Coalition, 34.5% Labor, 12.5% Greens and 18% for all Others.

LNP holds Fadden at byelection with small swing to LNP

At Saturday’s federal byelection[7] for the Queensland seat of Fadden, the Liberal National Party defeated Labor by 63.2–36.8, a 2.5% swing to the LNP since the 2022 federal election.

Primary votes were 48.9% LNP (up 4.3%), 22.1% Labor (down 0.3%), 8.9% One Nation (up 0.3%), 7.4% Legalise Cannabis (new) and 6.2% Greens (down 4.5%). None of the remaining eight candidates won more than 1%. This was a dismal result for the Greens, while One Nation failed to benefit from the absence of the UAP (6.6% in 2022).

Analyst Kevin Bonham[8] said the average swing at an opposition-held seat at a byelection that is contested by both major parties is about 1% to the opposition. The average swings in government-held seats are higher owing to the loss of the sitting MP’s personal vote. So the LNP outperformed the average.

In April, Labor’s gain of Aston at a federal byelection was only the second time a federal government had gained a seat from the opposition at a byelection. The two party swing to Labor at Aston[9] of 6.4% contrasts with the small swing to the LNP in Fadden.

Read more: Labor and Albanese gain in Newspoll after Aston byelection triumph[10]

Aston is located in metropolitan Melbourne, and Labor’s upset win was a continuation of a trend against the Liberals in Australia’s big cities. The Liberals lost four Melbourne seats at the 2022 election, two to Labor and two to teal independents.

Fadden is based on the Gold Coast and is not part of Brisbane. While Australia’s big cities are trending to the left, the rest of Australia is not. Overall, the left trend in our big cities is favourable to Labor, owing to the high percentage of Australia’s population that lives there.

Read more: Will a continuing education divide eventually favour Labor electorally due to our big cities?[11]

Turnout at the Aston byelection was 85.6%, while in Fadden turnout is currently 67.5% and is likely to only make the low 70s.

UK byelections and Spanish election upcoming in next week

I wrote for The Poll Bludger [12]last Wednesday that there will be three United Kingdom byelections in Conservative-held seats this Thursday. While the Conservatives won all three seats by large margins at the 2019 election, there has been a massive national swing to Labour since.

The Spanish election is next Sunday, and the right-wing parties (People’s and Vox) are expected to defeat the governing left-wing parties (Socialists and Sumar). The right is also ahead in New Zealand, where an election is due in October. The June Greek election was a disaster for the left.

References

  1. ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
  2. ^ BludgerTrack (www.pollbludger.net)
  3. ^ Essential (theconversation.com)
  4. ^ published last week (theconversation.com)
  5. ^ Morgan federal poll (www.roymorgan.com)
  6. ^ sample (www.roymorgan.com)
  7. ^ federal byelection (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)
  8. ^ Kevin Bonham (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
  9. ^ Aston (results.aec.gov.au)
  10. ^ Labor and Albanese gain in Newspoll after Aston byelection triumph (theconversation.com)
  11. ^ Will a continuing education divide eventually favour Labor electorally due to our big cities? (theconversation.com)
  12. ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)

Read more https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-2pp-despite-primary-slide-lnp-wins-fadden-byelection-easily-209686

The Times Features

Why You Need an Expert Electrician for Your Business’s Electrical Upgrades and Repairs

When it comes to maintaining and upgrading your business’s electrical systems, it’s essential to call in a professional. Electrical work in any commercial setting requires the ex...

Why Is It Crucial to Have a Building Inspection Done Before Buying a New Home?

Purchasing a new property is a big financial decision that can impact your future for years. Whether you are a first-time buyer or an investor, good or bad, it is essential to en...

Online Application for Sick Leave Certificate: Understanding When and How to Secure One

A sick leave certificate is an official document issued by a healthcare professional to verify an individual's inability to attend work due to illness. It typically includes the ...

A No-Fuss Guide to an Effective Beauty Routine

Taking care of the skin and appearance need not be complicated; it need not even consume your hours of time. Smart and simple approaches can give one that glow and fresh look witho...

Safe & Effective Tattoo Removal in Auckland – What You Need to Know

If you're looking for tattoo removal in Auckland, modern laser technology offers the safest and most effective way to fade or completely remove unwanted ink. Whether it's an outd...

Fleece-Lined Tights vs. Regular Tights: What’s the Difference?

When temperatures drop, choosing the right pair of tights can make a significant difference in comfort, warmth, and durability. Whether you wear tights for fashion, work, or outdoo...

Times Magazine

The Ultimate Guide to Apple Watch Faces & Trending Wallpapers

In today’s digital world, personalization is everything. Your smartwatch isn’t just a timepiece—it’s an extension of your style. Thanks to innovative third-party developers, customizing your Apple Watch has reached new heights with stunning designs...

The Power of Digital Signage in Modern Marketing

In a fast-paced digital world, businesses must find innovative ways to capture consumer attention. Digital signage has emerged as a powerful solution, offering dynamic and engaging content that attracts and retains customers. From retail stores to ...

Why Cloud Computing Is the Future of IT Infrastructure for Enterprises

Globally, cloud computing is changing the way business organizations manage their IT infrastructure. It offers cheap, flexible and scalable solutions. Cloud technologies are applied in organizations to facilitate procedures and optimize operation...

First Nations Writers Festival

The First Nations Writers Festival (FNWF) is back for its highly anticipated 2025 edition, continuing its mission to celebrate the voices, cultures and traditions of First Nations communities through literature, art and storytelling. Set to take ...

Improving Website Performance with a Cloud VPS

Websites represent the new mantra of success. One slow website may make escape for visitors along with income too. Therefore it's an extra offer to businesses seeking better performance with more scalability and, thus represents an added attracti...

Why You Should Choose Digital Printing for Your Next Project

In the rapidly evolving world of print media, digital printing has emerged as a cornerstone technology that revolutionises how businesses and creative professionals produce printed materials. Offering unparalleled flexibility, speed, and quality, d...

LayBy Shopping