Liberals desperate for a path out of purgatory

The Albanese government in question time on Monday was already targeting Angus Taylor as likely Liberal leader, while the aspirant’s supporters were grappling with the mechanics of organising the challenge.

Sunday’s appalling Newspoll, showing the Liberals on a primary vote of 15% (with the Nationals 3%) and Sussan Ley’s net satisfaction rating at minus 39, has seemed a tipping point for a challenge.

Liberal backbencher Jane Hume, who voted for Taylor last year, put the position starkly. “This is disastrous for the Liberal Party. It’s disastrous for the Coalition.

"Unless something changes, we will be wiped out. I’ve been looking at the numbers, just running a ruler over the pendulum. And I don’t think that at this point there will be a single [Liberal] member of the House of Representatives from Victoria. There won’t be a single member of the House of Representatives from New South Wales. Something has to give.

"We had our lowest primary vote ever at the last election, and it’s now nearly halved. So something has to change and it has to change quickly,” Hume told Sky, also raising the prospect of the election being early.

“I would imagine that the next election will be in about 18 months time. We need to claw back a lot of favour with the electorate just in order to survive.”

“My message to my leaders is that if you have a rabbit in your hat, it’s time to reach for that bunny, because we cannot continue this way.”

As the unfortunate Liberals know, whatever they do, no rabbits are likely to emerge.

Another leader might have stayed in the shadows on a day like this. Ley, however, was out in the media with multiple interviews even though she must know she can’t cut through the fog of this warfare.

Taylor supporters on Monday thought his numbers to dislodge Ley were probably there.

Victorian senator Sarah Henderson, a Taylor backer, said the leadership question needed to be sorted “this week, preferably”.

But Ley plays the tactical battle hard and the path for a spill this week is messy.

An ordinary Liberal party meeting will be held first thing on Tuesday morning. But because this is Senate estimates week, there is a collective apology from all Liberal senators.

So that rules out a spill motion at that meeting.

The Taylor camp would like a special meeting to be held on Friday. But Ley has to facilitate a special meeting, and her opponents fear she might not.

They don’t think she would go to the length Malcolm Turnbull did in 2018 when he demanded his opponents drum up the numbers (in writing) required to petition for a special meeting. But they are concerned Ley could tell them, “there’s been a meeting this week, so wait until parliament returns (at the start of March)”. Ley supporters discount the possibility she’d do this, which would only have the potential to worsen her position.

Another issue preoccupying the insurgents is who would be deputy under Taylor (who post election notoriously had Jacinta Nampijinpa Price as potential running mate). This is not directly within his gift, but it would be important to the “look” of a new team.

Present deputy Ted O'Brien would be expected to run again, and if successful opt to retain his position of shadow treasurer (the deputy gets the call on their portfolio, in normal circumstances).

But a middle aged male deputy backing up a middle aged male leader might not be the best look for a party needing to appeal to female voters.

Potential female candidates include Zoe McKenzie (from Victoria), Melissa McIntosh (New South Wales) and Angie Bell (Queensland). None has stood out.

Victorian Tim Wilson – the Liberal who actually beat a teal – could also be in the deputy field. ………

The deputy job is vital, especially in opposition. The deputy needs to be the “point person” for the leader, watching their back, giving them their troops’ feedback, and often also being something of a “head kicker” against the government.

And of course, sometimes deputies step up to be leaders, for better or worse. As did Ley.