Australia

Mon Mar 10

Anthony Albanese gains in Newspoll, but the race remains neck-and-neck

Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll ^[1], conducted March 3–7 from a sample of 1,255, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all Others (down two).

Newspoll is using a stronger One Nation preference flow to the Coalition than occurred at the 2022 election. By 2022 preference flows, this poll would be near a 50–50 tie.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval jumped nine points to -12, with 53% dissatisfied and 41% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval dropped four points to -14. Albanese extended his better PM lead over Dutton to 47–38 (45–40 previously).

This is the first time Albanese has had a better net approval than Dutton since September 2024, and also his biggest better PM lead since then. It’s not always the case, but sometimes movements in leaders’ ratings come before a gain in voting intentions.

In the other polls released in the last week, Labor gained a 51–49 lead in a YouGov poll, but the Coalition regained a narrow lead in both the Essential and Morgan polls.

The graph below shows Labor’s two-party vote in national polls. While still narrowly behind, Labor is doing better than they were two weeks ago.

Labor Two Party Preferred Vote in national polls.

This is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term. The plus signs are the data points and a trend line has been fitted. The trend line will need a sustained improvement for Albanese before it turns up.

Albanese Newspoll ratings.

In an additional Newspoll question, by 55–45 respondents said they were not confident that the Dutton Coalition is ready to govern Australia.

Labor gains lead in a YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll ^[2], conducted February 28 to March 6 from a sample of 1,504, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the February 21–27 YouGov poll. This is the first Labor lead in YouGov since July 2024. YouGov will be releasing weekly voting intentions until the election.

Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (up three), 13% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (down one), 1% for Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots (steady) 10% independents (steady) and 2% others (steady). YouGov is using preference flows that are weaker for Labor than at the 2022 election, and by 2022 election flows Labor would lead by more than 52–48.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved three points ^[3] to -9, with 51% dissatisfied and 42% satisfied. Dutton’s net approval slid two points to -4. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 45–39 (42–40 previously).

Essential poll: Coalition takes narrow lead

A national Essential poll ^[4], conducted February 26 to March 2 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided using respondent preferences (a 48–48 tie in mid-February). The Coalition has been narrowly ahead since early December except for the previous poll.

Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 29% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 8% One Nation (down one), 1% UAP (steady), 10% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (up one). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about an unchanged 51–49. Essential should have replaced UAP with Clive Palmer’s new Trumpet of Patriots party.

Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -8, with 49% disapproving and 41% approving. Dutton’s net approval was up one to -3. By 49–34, voters thought Australia was on the wrong track (51–31 previously).

Essential’s party trusted to handle issues ^[5] were better for Labor than other issue polls by Resolve and Freshwater. Labor led the Coalition by 33–27 on addressing cost of living pressures and only trailed by 30–29 on managing the economy.

Overall, 52% said they were committed to their vote, including 65% of Coalition supporters and 52% of Labor supporters.

Morgan poll: Coalition retakes narrow lead

A national Morgan poll ^[6], conducted February 24 to March 2 from a sample of 1,673, gave the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the February 17–23 Morgan poll that was probably a pro-Labor outlier.

Primary votes were 40% Coalition (up 3.5), 28.5% Labor (down three), 13.5% Greens (steady), 4% One Nation (down one), 10.5% independents (up 0.5) and 3.5% others (steady). By 2022 election flows, there was a 50–50 tie, a three-point gain for the Coalition.

By 52–31.5, respondents thought the country is going in the wrong direction (49.5–34.5 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index ^[7] fell 2.1 points to 87.7.

Economy has best quarterly growth for two years

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the December quarter GDP report ^[8] last Wednesday. The economy grew 0.6% in December, up from 0.3% in the September quarter. This was the best growth since December 2022, when the economy grew 0.7%.

There was much media attention ^[9] on the 0.8% annual growth rate after the September quarter GDP was released in December. The annual growth for the year to December was 1.3%, after the weak December 2023 quarter (0.1% growth) was replaced with this stronger quarter.

GDP per capita ^[10] rose 0.1% in the December quarter, after dropping in the seven quarters from March 2023 to September 2024.

Carney wins Canadian Liberal leadership

Mark Carney has been elected Canadian federal Liberal leader today and will replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister. I covered this for The Poll Bludger ^[11]. The Liberals have surged back from way behind the Conservatives in the Canadian polls.

I also wrote about US, Austrian and German electoral developments.