Despite fallout from the expenses scandal^[1] and Bondi, Labor still holds a 54–46 lead in Resolve, but Anthony Albanese’s ratings have slumped. Newspoll analysis has One Nation’s surge concentrated with voters of lower educational attainment.

A special national Resolve poll^[2] for Nine newspapers, conducted after the Bondi attacks on December 17–20 from a sample of 1,010 (well below the normal Resolve sample size of 1,800), gave Labor a 54–46 lead by respondent preferences, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the regular early December Resolve poll^[3].

Primary votes were^[4] 32% Labor (down three), 28% Coalition (up two), 16% One Nation (up two), 12% Greens (up one), 8% independents (steady) and 4% others (down two). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would have led by under 54–46, about a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition.

Albanese’s net approval slumped 15 points to -9, the lowest it has been in this poll since the May election, with 49% giving him a poor rating and 40% a good rating. Sussan Ley’s net approval also fell seven points to -4. Albanese led Ley as preferred PM by 38–30 (41–26 in early December).

There had been stories about the expenses scandal in the week before the Bondi attacks, and the Morgan poll below had Labor dropping on the expenses scandal. It’s not clear whether Albanese and Labor were damaged by the expenses, Bondi or both.

By 46–29, respondents in Resolve thought the federal government’s response to Bondi was weak rather than strong. By 37–30, they thought social cohesion was good rather than poor.

By 72–9, respondents thought there had been a rise in racism in Australia as a result of the Israel-Gaza conflict (69–12 when this question was last asked in January 2025). By 55–13, they thought there had been more antisemitism than Islamophobia in recent months (54–9 last January).

On gun laws^[5], 76% wanted them to be toughened, 10% kept as they are and just 6% thought they should be relaxed. Four of five proposals for toughening gun laws had over 80% support, with “restrict gun licences to Australian citizens” the exception at 72% support.

Asked to pick two priorities for the government, 49% selected preventing terrorism, 45% tackling crime generally, 35% restricting access to guns, 33% preventing extremism, 29% tackling antisemitism and 26% tackling hate speech.

By 66–9, respondents thought Australia needs stronger laws^[6] to ban hate speech on the basis of religion and faith. The most popular proposal for tackling antisemitism was tougher immigration screening to identify antisemitic views (76–7 support). Holding a Royal Commission was at 48–17 support.

In the small New South Wales subsample of around 300 voters, Labor Premier Chris Minns’ net likeability^[7] jumped eight points since November to +22.

In a post-Bondi YouGov national poll^[8] that was conducted December 15–22 from a sample of 1,509, 44% wanted personal guns like those used in the attacks made illegal, 48% wanted tighter gun laws and just 8% wanted no change to gun laws. By 81–19, respondents thought Ahmed al Ahmed, who disarmed one of the Bondi gunmen, deserved to be made Australian of the Year.

Labor slides in Morgan poll after expenses scandal

Morgan released its November 17 to December 14 national poll^[9] broken into two periods. For the first three weeks, November 17 to December 7, Labor had a 56–44 lead, similar to the 56.5–43.5 Labor lead in October to November.

For the last week, December 8–14 with a one-week sample of 1,574, Labor’s lead dropped to 54.5–45.5 by respondent preferences, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition from weeks 1–3.

Primary votes were 30.5% Labor (down 2.5), 27.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 17% One Nation (up two), 13% Greens (down 0.5) and 12% for all Others (down 0.5). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would have led by about 53–47, the lowest Labor lead by this measure of any poll since the last election.

The Redbridge poll^[10] suggested Labor had not been damaged by the expenses claims, but this poll contradicts that. All interviews were conducted before the Bondi attacks.

Read more: Labor maintains dominant lead in Redbridge poll despite expenses claims^[11]

The full four-week poll had a sample of 4,862. In state and demographic breakdowns, the Coalition regained the lead in Queensland by 50.5–49.5, but Labor led in the other five states. Labor led by 58.5–41.5 with women and 52.5–47.5 with men.

Labor led by 69.5–30.5 with those aged 18–34 and by 58.5–41.5 with those aged 35–49. The Coalition made its biggest gains with those aged 50–64 to lead by 50.5–49.5, a 4.5-point swing to the Coalition. The Coalition led with those aged 65 and over by 54.5–45.5. One Nation’s highest support was with those aged 50–64 (20.5%) and they had 22% in Queensland.

Newspoll aggregate data for September to November

The Australian released aggregate data^[12] for the three national Newspolls conducted between September 29 and November 20 on December 26. The total sample size was 3,774, with Labor holding an overall 57–43 lead. These polls were taken before the expenses scandal and Bondi.

Labor led by 58–42 in NSW, (a two-point gain for the Coalition since the September quarter Newspoll aggregate according to The Poll Bludger^[13]), 60–40 in Victoria (a two-point gain for Labor), 52–48 in Queensland (a one-point gain for Labor), 56–44 in Western Australia (a two-point gain for Labor) and 58–42 in South Australia (a three-point gain for Labor).

Among those without a tertiary education^[14], primary votes were 30% Labor (down two), 26% Coalition (down six), 20% One Nation (up nine) and 14% Greens (up one), for an unchanged 53–47 Labor lead. With TAFE educated, primary votes were 35% Labor (down two), 24% Coalition (down one), 19% One Nation (up seven) and 9% Greens (steady) for a 54–46 Labor lead (a three-point gain for the Coalition).

However, with the university educated, primary votes were 41% Labor (up three), 26% Coalition (down three), 13% Greens (down two) and 6% One Nation (up one), for a 62–38 Labor lead (a two-point gain for Labor).

Resolve likeabilty poll

Resolve’s poll of net likeability of federal politicians^[15] was taken in early December, before Bondi and the expenses scandal. Only two politicians had negative net likeability: Lidia Thorpe (-12) and Barnaby Joyce (-4).

Net likeability of prominent Labor politicians were Chris Bowen (net zero), Murray Watt (+4), Jim Chalmers (+5), Richard Marles (+6), Tony Burke (+7), Tanya Plibersek (+9) and Penny Wong (+11). David Pocock and Jacqui Lambie were on top with both at +15. Greens leader Larissa Waters was at +5.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s net likeability increased 16 points since December 2024 to +3, but was down five points since November^[16]. Joyce’s net likeability was up 18 since December 2024 and up four since November. Thorpe’s net likeability surged 29 points since December 2024.

Only one politician suffered a fall in net likeability since December 2024: Liberal Jacinta Price was down five points to +3.

References

1. ^{^} expenses scandal (theconversation.com)
2. ^{^} national Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
3. ^{^} early December Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
4. ^{^} Primary votes were (www.smh.com.au)
5. ^{^} gun laws (www.smh.com.au)
6. ^{^} Australia needs stronger laws (www.theage.com.au)
7. ^{^} Labor Premier Chris Minns’ net likeability (www.theage.com.au)
8. ^{^} YouGov national poll (au.yougov.com)
9. ^{^} November 17 to December 14 national poll (www.roymorgan.com)
10. ^{^} Redbridge poll (theconversation.com)
11. ^{^} Labor maintains dominant lead in Redbridge poll despite expenses claims (theconversation.com)
12. ^{^} released aggregate data (origin.theaustralian.com.au)
13. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
14. ^{^} tertiary education (www.pollbludger.net)
15. ^{^} net likeability of federal politicians (www.theage.com.au)
16. ^{^} five points since November (theconversation.com)