DemosAU gives Labor one of its worst poll results this term

A DemosAU poll has Labor down three points on primary votes since February to just 26%, with Labor and One Nation now tied. The total vote for the Coalition and One Nation was steady at 49% while the total for Labor and the Greens was down two points to 39%.

Other recent federal polls^[1] have been much better for Labor than this DemosAU poll, and a Morgan poll that was taken last week gave Labor a big lead.

DemosAU could be an anti-Labor outlier, or it may be picking up a shift against Labor in the last week. We will need to wait for more polls to know what is happening.

This article also includes age and gender breakdowns from a large-sample Redbridge poll, coverage of international electoral events and further analysis of the March 21 South Australian election.

The Poll Bludger reported^[2] a national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief that was conducted April 8–14 from a sample of 1,439. Primary votes were 26% Labor (down three since the February DemosAU poll^[3]), 26% One Nation (down two), 23% Coalition (up two), 13% Greens (up one) and 12% for all Others (up two).

No two-party estimate was given, but The Poll Bludger said “a seat projection suggests Labor would likely be left scrambling for a minority government with the support of Greens and independents”. Applying 2025 election preference flows would give Labor below a 51–49 lead over the Coalition, their worst result from any poll this term.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped six points to -20, with 46% giving him a negative rating and 26% a positive rating. Angus Taylor’s initial net approval was -3 (28% negative, 25% positive). Pauline Hanson’s net approval was steady at -5 (39% negative, 34% positive).

By 47–28, respondents did not think the United States was a reliable military ally for Australia. By 59–22, they thought the government should distance itself from President Trump rather than closely support him (45–36 in January 2025 at the beginning of Trump’s term).

Morgan poll

A national Morgan poll^[4], conducted April 6–12 from a sample of 1,512, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (down 0.5 since the early April Morgan poll), One Nation 24.5% (up three), the Coalition 22.5% (down 1.5), the Greens 12.5% (up 0.5) and all Others 10.5% (down 1.5).

No Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate was provided. Labor led the Coalition by an unchanged 56–44 using respondent preferences. They led by 54–46 on 2025 election preference flows, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.

Large-sample Redbridge poll

The Poll Bludger reported^[5] on a Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review. This poll was conducted March 6–19 from a large sample of 5,563. It did not give a national headline figure, instead focusing on demographic breakdowns.

With young men (Gen Z), Labor had 39% of the primary vote, the Greens 24%, One Nation 19% and the Coalition 12%.

Among young women, the Greens had 38%, Labor 26%, the Coalition 14% and One Nation 11%.

With Millennial men, Labor had 36%, One Nation 26%, the Coalition 16% and the Greens 13%. With Millennial women, Labor had 28%, One Nation 27%, the Coalition 19% and the Greens 15%.

For Gen X men, One Nation had 35%, Labor 32%, the Coalition 18% and the Greens 6%. For Gen X women, One Nation 31%, Labor 29%, the Coalition 21% and the Greens 9%.

For Baby Boomer men, One Nation had 31%, the Coalition 30%, Labor 27% and the Greens 4%. For Baby Boomer women, Labor 33%, One Nation 32%, the Coalition 24% and the Greens 3%.

Combining the Labor and Greens votes against the One Nation and Coalition votes gives the left a 63–31 lead among Gen Z men and a 64–25 lead among Gen Z women. Millenial men gave the left a 49–42 lead, but Millenial women gave the right a 46–43 lead.

Gen X men gave the right a 53–38 lead and Gen X women gave the right a 52–38 lead. Baby Boomer men gave the right a 61–31 lead and Baby Boomer women gave the right a 56–36 lead.

Farrer byelection has 12 candidates

The Farrer federal byelection to replace Liberal sussan Ley will be held on May 9. There are 12 candidates for this byelection^[6], with One Nation, independent Michelle Milthorpe and the Liberals the main prospects. Labor is not contesting.

Coverage of US, Canadian and Hungarian electoral events

On Friday AEST, US Democrats retained a federal seat^[7] in New Jersey, but the 11-point swing in margin from the 2024 presidential election results in that seat was much less than the 25-point swing in Georgia in the April 7 special election. I covered this for The Poll Bludger^[8].

Since the 2025 Canadian federal election, the centre-left Liberals have gained five MPs in the House of Commons by defections. On Monday, they won three byelections in seats they already held, and now have 174 MPs, two above the 172 needed for a majority. In swing terms from the 2025 election, the Conservatives performed dismally in all three byelections.

At the Hungarian April 12 election, Viktor Orbán’s far-right Fidesz that has governed for the last 16 years was thumped by a conservative and pro-European party. I covered these events for The Poll Bludger^[9].

More on the SA election

ABC election analyst Antony Green^[10] has posted about the final lower house results of the March 21 South Australian state election. I previously covered^[11] these results. Only 13 of the 47 seats were “classic” Labor vs Liberal contests, while 25 were Labor vs One Nation.

Labor had big swings in its favour in Liberal and Labor-held seats on narrow margins, but One Nation had big swings against the old Labor vs Liberal margin in safe Labor seats. Labor won Light against One Nation by just 51.6–48.4, down from a 70.1–29.9 margin against the Liberals in 2022.

Preference flows suggest 80–85% of Greens preferenced Labor above either the Liberals or One Nation. Of One Nation’s preferences, 65–70% favoured the Liberals above Labor, while 55–65% of Liberal preferences went to One Nation ahead of Labor.

The primary vote leader won 45 of the 47 seats, with independents winning Finniss (from fourth on primary votes) and Kavel (from second).

We won’t get an official statewide two-party preferred result, but analyst Kevin Bonham estimates^[12] Labor won by 57.9–42.1 against the Liberals and by 58.2–41.8 against One Nation. This would be a 3.3% swing to Labor against the Liberals since the 2022 SA election^[13].

In an embarrassment for the electoral commission^[14], 81 additional votes for Narungga were discovered on Thursday in a neighbouring electorate. Narungga was the closest seat at the election, with One Nation defeating the Liberals by just 58 votes.

The extra votes increased One Nation’s lead^[15] to 74 votes.

References

1. ^{^} recent federal polls (theconversation.com)
2. ^{^} Poll Bludger reported (www.pollbludger.net)
3. ^{^} February DemosAU poll (theconversation.com)
4. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
5. ^{^} Poll Bludger reported (www.pollbludger.net)
6. ^{^} 12 candidates for this byelection (www.abc.net.au)
7. ^{^} retained a federal seat (www.pollbludger.net)
8. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (theconversation.com)
9. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
10. ^{^} election analyst Antony Green (antonygreen.com.au)
11. ^{^} previously covered (theconversation.com)
12. ^{^} analyst Kevin Bonham estimates (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
13. ^{^} 2022 SA election (en.wikipedia.org)
14. ^{^} embarrassment for the electoral commission (www.abc.net.au)
15. ^{^} increased One Nation’s lead (www.ecsa.sa.gov.au)