Labor trending down in Newspoll before Albanese's stumble

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 6-9 from a sample of 1,506, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down one), 36% Coalition (steady), 10% Greens (steady), 4% UAP (up one), 3% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all Others (steady).

52% were dissatisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance (steady), and 42% were satisfied (steady), for a net approval of -10. Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped two points to -3. Morrison’s lead as better PM increased to 44-39 from 43-42 last week. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger^[1].

It’s a concerning trend for Labor that they’ve lost two points from the early March Newspoll^[2] that gave them a 55-45 lead. That Newspoll gave Labor 41% primary, and they’ve lost four points since – two to the Greens, one to the Coalition and one to UAP. This is the Coalition’s best Newspoll^[3] since December.

Albanese had been urging Morrison to call the election for days before Sunday’s announcement of the May 21 poll. Analyst Peter Brent thought this could be perceived as arrogance by Albanese.

Politically engaged people, particularly Labor supporters, wanted the election as soon as possible, but the large majority of voters are not politically engaged and do not like elections.

Labor will be hoping that Albanese does not make more damaging stumbles^[4] like not remembering the Reserve Bank’s cash rate or the unemployment rate on Monday. This will play into Coalition claims that Labor is weak on the economy. All polling in this article was taken before this stumble.

Morgan: Labor retains 57-43 lead, but primary vote tumbles

A Morgan poll^[5], conducted April 4-10 from a sample of 1,384, gave Labor a 57-43 lead, unchanged on the previous week. Primary votes were 36% Labor (down 3.5), 32.5% Coalition (down 0.5), 12.5% Greens (up 1.5), 5% One Nation (up 1.5), 1.5% UAP (up 0.5), 8.5% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (up one).

Labor’s primary vote in Morgan was up four last week, so they’re now 0.5 points above their primary vote two weeks ago^[6]. Morgan is using respondent preferences for its two party estimate. By last election preferences, analyst Kevin Bonham^[7] gets 55.3-44.7 to Labor, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since last week.

Resolve state breakdowns

The Age has state breakdowns^[8] of the three Resolve federal polls conducted from January to April. Only primary votes are provided as Resolve does not give any two party estimates. Since the 2019 election, the biggest swings to Labor are in WA and SA.

Seat polls

I’ve said before that seat polls have been unreliable at past elections. Redbridge conducted four federal seat polls of Bass (Tas), Greenway (NSW), Longman (Qld) and Paterson (NSW). The polls were conducted by robopolling April 4-6 from samples of 880 to 1,000 per seat. Only primary votes were given.

In Longman^[9], the LNP had 34%, Labor 33%, One Nation 9%, the Greens 7% and UAP 7%. The LNP would hold Longman. This is the second poll^[10] with the LNP holding Longman, a seat they gained in 2019.

In Bass^[11], the Liberals have 36%, Labor 36%, the Greens 11%, One Nation 6% and UAP 3%. In contrast to an earlier Bass poll, Labor would gain it.

In Greenway^[12], the Liberals had 40%, Labor 38%, the Greens 6%, One Nation 5% and UAP 5%. This would be a Liberal gain, though 15% were undecided on the voting intentions question.

In Paterson^[13], Labor had 38%, the Liberals 33%, One Nation 9%, the Greens 7% and UAP 3%. Labor would retain it.

There was also a uComms poll in Mackellar for independent Sophie Scamps, which implies she would defeat Liberal incumbent Jason Falinski by 55-45 according to The Poll Bludger^[14]. Polls released by candidates are very prone to be biased to that candidate. This poll was conducted April 5 from a sample of 833.

A Greeens-commissioned uComms federal poll of SA, reported by InDaily^[15], gave Labor a 58-42 lead, from primary votes of 39.4% Labor, 33.2% Liberal, 9.6% Greens, 3.6% UAP and 3.1% One Nation. This poll was done April 5 from a sample of 1,052.

French presidential first round election

I covered Sunday’s French presidential first round election for The Poll Bludger^[16]. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron (with 27.8%) and the far-right Marine Le Pen (with 23.2%) advanced to the April 24 runoff, with the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon a close third with 22.0%. Mélenchon overperformed his polls, while other right-wing candidates underperformed, so Macron is the clear favourite to win the runoff.

Also covered: the landslide re-election of the far-right Fidesz in Hungary, which was a disaster for both the opposition and the polls.

References

1. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
2. ^{^} early March Newspoll (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} best Newspoll (theconversation.com)
4. ^{^} damaging stumbles (www.abc.net.au)
5. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
6. ^{^} two weeks ago (theconversation.com)
7. ^{^} Kevin Bonham (twitter.com)
8. ^{^} state breakdowns (www.theage.com.au)
9. ^{^} Longman (redbridgegroup.com.au)
10. ^{^} second poll (theconversation.com)
11. ^{^} Bass (redbridgegroup.com.au)
12. ^{^} Greenway (redbridgegroup.com.au)
13. ^{^} Paterson (redbridgegroup.com.au)
14. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
15. ^{^} InDaily (indaily.com.au)
16. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)