Thu Jan 23

Coalition has lead in most polls as Dutton gains five-point preferred PM lead in Resolve

Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Resolve poll ^[1] for Nine newspapers, conducted January 15–21 from a sample of 1,610, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead using 2022 election preference flows, unchanged from the early December Resolve poll. The Coalition had a wider 52–48 lead by respondent preferences.

Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 27% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (steady), 10% independents (down one) and 6% others (up one). Labor’s primary vote fell three points to 27% in December.

Peter Dutton held a 39–34 lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred PM, after they were tied at 35% each in December. This is easily Dutton’s biggest lead in any poll on this measure, which usually favours the incumbent relative to voting intentions.

Albanese’s net approval ^[2] improved four points ^[3] to -22, with 55% rating him poor and 33% good. However, this came after a 12-point slump in December. Dutton’s net approval surged eight points to +6.

Inflation and the cost of living is still the major cause of Labor’s problems. By 50–17, respondents expected inflation to get worse in the near future. By 46–29, they said their income would not keep up with inflation this year.

The Liberals led Labor by a large 42–23 on economic management (41–23 in December). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 37–22 (38–22 previously).

I explained the chart below in Monday’s article ^[4]. Since Monday, Morgan, Essential and Resolve polls have been released, and none have been good for Labor. The latest Freshwater and Resolve polls occupy the same space on the chart.

Labor 2PP in polls.

There have been five polls released in the last week. By 2022 election flows, the Coalition leads in four, with Essential tied. Actual preferences will probably be better for the Coalition than in 2022, so Labor is probably further behind.

Although Labor’s position is poor, they’re not behind by 55–45. If Labor can use the lead-up to the election to increase fears about a Coalition government, they can still win the next election. The federal election is due by May.

But on current polling, the Coalition will probably win the two-party count, though not necessarily a majority of House of Representatives seats.

Essential poll good for Labor except on voting intentions

A national Essential poll ^[5], conducted January 15–19 from a sample of 1,132, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead by respondent preferences including undecided, unchanged since mid-December.

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up two), 30% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down four) and 5% undecided (steady). These primary votes would give about a 50–50 tie by 2022 election preference flows, a two-point gain for the Coalition.

However, Albanese’s net approval jumped 11 points to net zero, with 45% both approving and disapproving. This is his highest net approval in Essential since October 2023, and his highest from anyone since a May 2024 Newspoll. Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -1.

By 46–38, respondents thought Australia is on the wrong track (51–31 in December), This is the smallest margin for wrong in this poll since May 2023.

On whether Australia should have a separate national day ^[6] to recognise Indigenous Australians, 40% (steady since January 2024) did not want a separate day, 30% (down one) supported a separate day and keeping Australia Day and 19% (up one) supported a separate day to replace Australia Day.

By 42–27, respondents supported banning TikTok in Australia (45–25 in March 2024). By 54–12, they thought social media companies should be regulated more (57–9 in March 2024). By 77–7, respondents thought dental and oral healthcare should be included in Medicare.

Morgan poll: Coalition gains clear lead

A national Morgan poll ^[7], conducted January 13–19 from a sample of 1,564, gave the Coalition a 52–48 lead by headline respondent preferences, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the January 6–12 poll.

Primary votes were 42% Coalition (up 1.5), 28.5% Labor (down 1.5), 13% Greens (up 0.5), 4% One Nation (down 0.5), 8.5% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (up 0.5).

Using 2022 election flows, the Coalition led by 52–48, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition. This is the worst Morgan poll for Labor by this measure this term, beating the 51.5–48.5 to the Coalition in mid-December.