American politics has become weekly high drama.

Donald Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt^[1] last weekend. Now Joe Biden has COVID^[2], and is under ever-increasing pressure to stand aside as the Democratic candidate for November’s presidential election.

We’re joined on the podcast by former Australian Ambassador to Washington, Joe Hockey, who’s at this week’s Republican convention.

Summing up the convention’s mood, Hockey says:

Frankly, there’s an energy that I wasn’t expecting after last Saturday’s attempted assassination […] People are positive. They’re not aggressive, they’re just positive and they’re very energised.

The “enormous support” for Trump has been a marked contrast from the divisions Hockey witnessed at the 2016 Republican convention. Yet Hockey agrees the former US president seems unusually subdued this week.

People I’ve spoken with, who have spoken to him, say it is a different Donald Trump. He’s obviously had a near-death experience, and his hand has dampened a lot of the usual aggression that pervades Democrat and Republican conventions. So, I think there’s no doubt he’s been significantly affected by the attempted assassination.

Biden’s most likely replacement

On the calls for Biden to step aside as candidate, Hockey says that up until now, he thought the president would fight on and stay. But the Biden office’s push over the past 48 hours to speed up the confirmation process has backfired.

All that’s done is just hastened the demand of Democrat leaders to have Joe Biden step down. Now, how [do] they do it? It’s uncharted territory. Clearly in Australia, we know – with unfortunate regularity – how to bring down the leaders of our own parties. In America, they just don’t do it.

Biden’s COVID diagnosis, coupled with his declining performances, means it’s now looking more like the president will have to go.

I saw two interviews that he did where it’s just, it’s depressing. I think it’s really interesting that no one here is celebrating or dancing on Joe Biden’s ill-health. I mean, no one’s mentioning it. No one’s even talking about it because we’ve all had parents, grandparents, that have gone through this cognitive decline.

Who’s mostly like to replace Biden? Hockey says he would be “dumbfounded” if Vice President Kamala Harris didn’t step up – particularly because, as of today, she’s already out-polling Biden against Trump.

What it means for Australia

On Australia’s relationship with a possible second Trump term, Hockey lays out what Prime Minister Anthony Albanese should do on his first phone call.

Albanese should give him something in that call to show that we are serious. It could be the next down-payment on the submarines - to bring it forward. It could be something else. But Donald Trump is a person of action.

I think it’ll be important to remind him that we have already given a cheque for $3 billion to the US for Virginia subs, and we’re doing our heavy lifting. And look […] the starting point for Donald Trump is Australia is a great country and a great friend.

A divided America affects the world

On the trajectory of what is happening in the United States, Hockey says:

I think there’ll be plenty to worry about. I mean, America still, in my mind, represents the biggest sovereign risk to companies that are operating outside of Australia. And that’s because there is so much uncertainty in America, I mean, the key thing […] we’ve all got to understand is that in America, the political divide is chiselled on policy. There is a policy divide between the Republicans and the Democrats.

There are deep divisions from taxation, where there’s different tax rates between Trump and Biden, through to regulation and of course, climate change is a big one. […] So there are big, deep divisions between the parties, which is why the parties are so fired up about the election.

References

1. ^{^} assassination attempt (theconversation.com)
2. ^{^} has COVID (theconversation.com)