One Nation’s rise turns around as Newspoll and Resolve both have Labor well ahead
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Has One Nation reached its polling peak? That’s the intriguing question from the latest batch of polls.
On Friday I covered a DemosAU poll[1] that was one of Labor’s worst since the 2025 election. Newspoll and Resolve give Labor clear leads, and both have the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition at 45% (down two in Newspoll and down one in Resolve). That’s four points lower than in DemosAU.
There is disagreement between these polls on Angus Taylor’s ratings. In Newspoll, Taylor is down six to a -13 net approval, but he’s up six to a +15 net approval in Resolve. Taylor trails Anthony Albanese as better PM by nine points in Newspoll but just one point in Resolve.
Albanese’s net approval is poor in both polls at -15 in Resolve and -17 in Newspoll. But voters are blaming US President Donald Trump for the current high petrol prices, and that is protecting Labor.
An early April Spectre Strategy poll is more encouraging for the right as it has the overall right vote at 50%, one point higher than in DemosAU. But Newspoll and Resolve are more recent and have a better record at elections.
A national Newspoll[2], conducted April 13–16 from a sample of 1,235, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote (steady since the previous Newspoll[3], three weeks ago), One Nation 24% (down two), the Coalition 21% (steady), the Greens 13% (up one) and all Others 11% (up one).
With One Nation still ahead of the Coalition, no two-party estimate was given. Applying 2025 election preference flows to the primary votes would give Labor just under a 55–45 lead, a one-point gain for Labor.
Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -17 (57% dissatisfied, 40% satisfied). Taylor’s net approval was down six points to -13 (46% dissatisfied, 33% satisfied). He has fallen ten points since his first Newspoll as Liberal leader in late February. Albanese led Taylor as better PM by 46–37 (44–36 previously).
This graph shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll. The plus signs show the data points and a smoothed line has been fitted. While Albanese improved one point since the previous Newspoll, he’s still at his worst net approval since February 2025.
Asked about ten proposals for increasing revenue, the most popular was increasing the petroleum resource rent tax (42% support), with 35% supporting reducing tax concessions for property investors.
Resolve poll
A national Resolve poll[4] for Nine newspapers, conducted April 13–18 from a sample of 1,807, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote (up three since the mid-March Resolve poll[5]), the Coalition 23% (up one), One Nation 22% (down two), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 6% (down two) and others 5% (steady).
By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 55–45 after this was not reported in March as One Nation was ahead of the Coalition. By 2025 election flows, Labor would have led by above 54–46, a one-point gain for Labor.
Albanese’s net approval was up two points to -15, with 52% giving him a poor rating and 37% a good rating. Taylor’s net approval was up six points to +15 (41% good, 26% poor). Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by just 33–32 (35–31 previously).
Net likeability (not net approval) of leaders had Taylor up three points since March to +16, Nationals leader Matt Canavan debuting at +8, Pauline Hanson down four points to +6, Greens leader Larissa Waters up three points to +2 and Albanese steady at -12.
Keeping the cost of living low was rated the most important issue by 42%, far ahead of any other issue, with housing on 8%, healthcare 7% and immigration 6%.
The Liberals led Labor by 31–25 on cost of living[6] (28–24 previously). On economic management, the Liberals led Labor by 34–27 (30–28 previously).
Spectre Strategy poll is more like DemosAU
A national Spectre Strategy poll[7], conducted April 2–8 from a sample of 1,002, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote, One Nation 26%, the Coalition 24%, the Greens 12% and all Others 10%. By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 51–49 and One Nation by 52–48.
Albanese was at -22 net approval, Taylor at +3 and Hanson at +4. In head to head contests, Albanese led Taylor by 41–32 as preferred PM and Hanson by 44–39.
Freshwater poll from late March
Results from a national Freshwater poll for News Australia can be downloaded here[8]. This poll was conducted March 27–29 from a sample of 1,050. It gave Labor 32% of the primary vote, One Nation 25%, the Coalition 23%, the Greens 12% and all Others 8%. By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 51–49 and One Nation by 55–45.
Albanese was at -17 net favourable, Taylor at +14, Pauline Hanson at +10 and Barnaby Joyce at +1. These figures are stronger than in other polls for right-wing figures, but Donald Trump was the exception with a net favourability of -45. Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 42–36.
By 60–20, respondents thought the Australian economy will have worsened in the next 12 months, rather than improved.
By 48–26, respondents opposed the US and Israel’s military campaign in Iran. On who is most responsible for starting the conflict, 40% blamed the US, 18% Iran and 14% Israel.
By 33–31, respondents were dissatisfied with the Albanese government’s response to the Iran war. By 59–22, they opposed Australia joining the war if requested by the US. By 47–28, they opposed Australia accepting refugees from the region. By 64–4, they thought the Iran war had increased the risk of terrorism in Australia.
On what was most responsible for the rise in fuel prices, 45% blamed the Iran war, 16% Australian reliance on imported oil and fuel and 12% price gouging by fuel companies and retailers. By 59–18, respondents were dissatisfied with the Albanese government’s response to this rise.
References
- ^ covered a DemosAU poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ Newspoll (www.theaustralian.com.au)
- ^ previous Newspoll (theconversation.com)
- ^ Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ mid-March Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ cost of living (www.smh.com.au)
- ^ Spectre Strategy poll (static1.squarespace.com)
- ^ downloaded here (freshwaterstrategy.com)
