Two Victorian polls have One Nation at 23–24%, but differ on which party is in the lead

Two Victorian polls have One Nation at 23–24% with Labor on top on primary votes in one and the Coalition in the other. Labor has a huge lead in New South Wales as the right vote is split under optional preferential voting. A record number of candidates will contest the March 21 South Australian election.

The Victorian election is in late November. A Freshwater poll^[1] for The Herald Sun, conducted February 19–23 from a sample of 1,030, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (down two since the November Freshwater poll^[2]), the Coalition 27% (down ten), One Nation 23% (not previously asked for), the Greens 13% and all Others 9%. After preferences, Labor and the Coalition were tied at an unchanged 50–50.

The close result on voting intentions comes despite Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s -33 net approval (down one point). Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s net approval was steady at +15, and Wilson led Allan as preferred premier by 46–30 (47–31 previously).

By 59–25, respondents thought the government is doing a bad job running Victoria. The Poll Bludger^[3] said that by 74–7, respondents supported a royal commission into alleged corruption within the CFMEU.

A Victorian Redbridge and Accent Research poll^[4] for The Australian Financial Review, conducted February 18–27 from a sample of 2,165, gave the Coalition 28% of the primary vote (down 12 since the December Redbridge poll^[5]), Labor 25% (down six), One Nation 24% (not previously asked for), the Greens 13% (up one) and all Others 10% (down seven).

By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 52–48, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Labor led One Nation by 53–47.

By 59–25, respondents did not think the Allan government has the right focus and priorities (59–26 previously). But by 44–27, they did not think Wilson and the Coalition have done enough to deserve to win the next election (43–25 previously). By 65–21, they thought Victoria was headed in the wrong direction.

While these polls both give One Nation 23–24% of the primary vote and have it just behind both major parties, they don’t replicate the Victorian SMS mid-February Morgan poll^[6] that had One Nation on 26.5% and first on primary votes.

It’s over eight months until the election, but current polls imply a Coalition government dependent on One Nation support is a distinct possibility. I believe Allan’s dismal ratings will drag Labor further down.

Labor has huge lead in a NSW state poll

The New South Wales state election is in March 2027. A DemosAU and Premier National poll^[7] for The Daily Telegraph, conducted February 24 to March 4 from a sample of 1,032, gave Labor 34% of the primary vote (down three since the October DemosAU poll^[8]), the Coalition 23% (down seven), One Nation 21% (not previously asked for), the Greens 15% (up two) and all Others 7% (down 13).

After preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 61–39, a two-point gain for Labor. NSW is currently the only Australian jurisdiction with single-member seats to use optional preferential voting. This hurts the right in this poll as the two right-wing parties are at 21–23% and many of their preferences would exhaust.

Labor Premier Chris Minns had a +21 net positive rating, with 38% positive and 17% negative. Liberal leader Kellie Sloane was at net +3 (22% positive, 19% negative). Minns led Sloane by 48–24 as preferred premier (44–25 vs Mark Speakman in October).

Half of the 42 upper house seats will be up for election using proportional representation with preferences. Upper house voting intentions were 29% Labor (down one), 22% One Nation (up seven), 21% Coalition (steady), 13% Greens (steady) and 15% for all Others (down six).

This poll contrasts with a Morgan SMS NSW poll^[9], conducted February 16–19 from a sample of 2,108, that gave One Nation 30% of the primary vote, Labor 25%, the Coalition 19%, the Greens 12.5% and all Others 13.5%. I’ve previously written^[10] that SMS polls may have too many motivated respondents.

Record number of candidates to contest SA election

It’s less than two weeks until the March 21 South Australian state election. ABC election analyst Antony Green^[11] said a record 388 candidates will contest the 47 lower house seats, far exceeding the previous record of 302 candidates in 2002. That’s an average of 8.3 candidates per seat. Labor, the Liberals, One Nation, the Greens and the Australian Family Party will contest every seat and Family First 35 seats.

Eleven of the 22 upper house seats will be elected using statewide proportional representation with preferences. There are 47 candidates for the upper house in 17 columns, down from 50 candidates and 20 columns in 2022.

The Liberals will recommend preferences^[12] to One Nation above Labor in all seats on their how to vote material. One Nation will not be recommending preferences.

NT Nightcliff byelection: Labor gains from Greens

A byelection occurred Saturday^[13] in the one Greens-held Northern Territory seat of Nightcliff. Labor gained from the Greens, defeating them by 51.9–48.1, a 2.3% swing to Labor since the 2024 NT election. This gives Labor five seats^[14] out of 25 in the NT parliament.

Primary votes were 33.5% Greens (up 11.5%), 28.9% Labor (down 3.9%), 20.3% for the governing Country Liberal Party (down 3.4%) and 17.3% for a teal independent (new). In 2024 another independent had won 19.2%. Labor won despite the big swing to the Greens on primary votes by improving their share of preferences.

Federal Morgan poll and further Redbridge results

A national Morgan poll^[15], conducted February 23 to March 1 from a sample of 1,554, gave Labor 30.5% of the primary vote (down 0.5 since the February 16–22 Morgan poll), the Coalition 23.5% (down 0.5), One Nation 22% (up 1.5), the Greens 11.5% (down one) and all Others 12.5% (up 0.5).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 56–44, a 1.5-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election flows, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.

I previously reported^[16] the late February Redbridge poll for The Financial Review. The Poll Bludger reported^[17] that Barnaby Joyce’s net favourability was up two points since January^[18] to -17 and Nationals leader David Littleproud was up one to -13.

Cost of living, healthcare, housing affordability and immigration were rated the most important issues^[19]. The Coalition and One Nation combined led Labor and the Greens combined by 37–31 on cost of living, 33–30 on housing and 54–21 on immigration. The left’s one lead was on healthcare by 38–32.

Respondent preferences suggest that in a contest^[20] between Labor and the Coalition, One Nation preferences would split 77–23 to the Coalition. However, if it’s Labor vs One Nation, Coalition preferences only split to One Nation by 69–31.

References

1. ^{^} Freshwater poll (www.heraldsun.com.au)
2. ^{^} November Freshwater poll (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
4. ^{^} Victorian Redbridge and Accent Research poll (www.afr.com)
5. ^{^} December Redbridge poll (theconversation.com)
6. ^{^} Victorian SMS mid-February Morgan poll (theconversation.com)
7. ^{^} DemosAU and Premier National poll (www.dailytelegraph.com.au)
8. ^{^} October DemosAU poll (demosau.com)
9. ^{^} Morgan SMS NSW poll (www.roymorgan.com)
10. ^{^} previously written (theconversation.com)
11. ^{^} election analyst Antony Green (antonygreen.com.au)
12. ^{^} recommend preferences (www.abc.net.au)
13. ^{^} byelection occurred Saturday (www.abc.net.au)
14. ^{^} gives Labor five seats (www.abc.net.au)
15. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
16. ^{^} previously reported (theconversation.com)
17. ^{^} Poll Bludger reported (www.pollbludger.net)
18. ^{^} since January (theconversation.com)
19. ^{^} most important issues (www.afr.com)
20. ^{^} preferences suggest that in a contest (www.afr.com)