Wed Jan 7

Trump wants Greenland. Europe’s tepid response is putting NATO and global security at risk

Written by: Shannon Brincat, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, University of the Sunshine Coast

Europe stands at a precipice. Following the US military operation in Venezuela, President Donald Trump and his close advisers have reiterated that Greenland – currently an autonomous territory of Denmark – will be next ^[1].

“We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security, and Denmark is not going to be able to do it,” Trump told reporters this week. “Let’s talk about Greenland in 20 days.”

The threat is not mere hyperbole. Trump has appointed Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry, who publicly supports US annexation, as special envoy to Greenland ^[2].

And Katie Miller, wife of top Trump adviser Stephen Miller, recently posted an image of Greenland in US flag colours ^[3] with the caption “SOON”.

These are not random provocations but coordinated pressure tactics against a sovereign territory.

Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen responded by saying “That’s enough now. No more pressure. No more insinuations. No more fantasies of annexation.”

Danish leaders have warned a US attack on Greenland would signal “the end of NATO ^[4]” and of post-second world war security ^[5].

Threats against NATO members (such as Denmark) could also embolden Russia even more and lead to more uncertainty for Europe.

So why are European leaders not more forcefully calling out Trump’s threats against Greenland – as well as his government’s shocking intervention in Venezuela? And what’s at stake?

Europe’s weak response

NATO’s Article 5 commits members ^[6] to treat an attack on one as an attack on all. If the US were to attack Greenland, Denmark would expect NATO’s collective defence mechanisms to activate against the US.

European leaders have been forced to confront a reality they hoped to avoid: the US, NATO’s founding member, may become the alliance’s gravest threat.

But so far, the response across the continent to both the Greenland threats and the US’ actions in Venezuela has been feeble and confused.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer admitted he wanted to speak to President Trump before he condemned the attacks ^[7], epitomising Europe’s subordination.

A letter signed by the Danish prime minister and the leaders of France, Germany, Spain, the UK, Italy, and Poland, has affirmed only Greenland and Denmark should determine Greenland’s future ^[8]. The European Union has pledged to defend members’ territorial integrity.

But they didn’t articulate any solid counter-threat to Trump’s comments about Greenland. They could, for instance, have reiterated their long-term partnership, the potential collapse of the biggest alliance in human history, or the costs in losing cooperation (both economic and security) with Europe that directly benefits the US.

And such vague declarations about Greenland ring hollow when the same governments hesitate to condemn US violations of international law in Venezuela ^[9].

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said ^[10] the “legal classification of the US intervention [in Venezuela] is complex” and that Germany needed time to consider this.

Such equivocation on the most basic, foundational concept of international law not only signals incredible weakness. It also undermines Europe’s credibility when invoking the “rules-based order” against Russia and its actions in Ukraine, making it near impossible to mobilise Global South support, sustain sanctions coalitions, or claim principled restraint.

When European leaders respond so cautiously to the Venezuela operation – stressing respect for international law while avoiding direct criticism of Washington – their principles are exposed as highly selective.

Russia benefits

Russia understands this dynamic perfectly. Moscow has already characterised US actions as “armed aggression ^[12]” while pointing to Western hypocrisy.

Moscow benefits from this in fundamental ways. First, Western hypocrisy validates Russia’s narrative that international law is merely a tool the powerful use against the weak. The vacillation on condemning US action in Venezuela or threats against fellow NATO members contradicts the European narrative against Putin’s war.

Second, NATO’s potential collapse or paralysis would hand Moscow a strategic victory that Russian military power alone has been unable to secure.

If the United States annexes Greenland, Denmark would face an existential choice: accept the violation and remain in a compromised NATO or leave an alliance that no longer protects its members. All other members would face the same choice.

The NATO alliance cannot function if its members no longer share fundamental values about sovereignty and law.

Trump has forced Europe to confront whether it will defend these principles universally or accept a world where might makes right.

Appeasement all over again?

This moment recalls Europe’s crisis of the Munich agreement ^[13]. In 1938, Britain and France sacrificed Czechoslovakia’s sovereignty to appease Nazi Germany ^[14], excluding Prague from negotiations over its future while negotiating away its territory.

Only later would the democratic powers discover that appeasing aggression – however politically convenient at the time – would only invite yet more aggression.

Today, Europe faces a parallel dilemma: how to respond when its most powerful ally directly threatens an EU and NATO member state.

Europe is edging toward another Munich agreement moment, with concessions dressed up as stability and peace a euphemism for appeasement. The events in the coming weeks will largely determine the very future of Europe.

The continent faces a choice between political expediency or rules-based international order built on the prohibition of aggressive war, respect for sovereignty, and collective security.

Will its leaders be prepared to confront their own hypocrisy or timidly accept the erosion of the rules they claim to defend?