Trump’s ratings recover a little after slump; Australian Labor retains large poll leads

Donald Trump’s net approval is up a little after a slump to a term low on November 23, as Republicans hold a federal seat at a special election. In Australia, Labor continues to hold large leads in federal polls, but received just 8.3% at the Hinchinbrook Queensland state byelection.

In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate^[1] of United States national polls, Trump’s net approval is -13.5, with 54.8% disapproving and 41.3% approving. His net approval fell from -7.6 on October 20 to a term low of -15.0 on November 23. Since then, he has gained 1.5 points.

Trump’s net approval on the four issues tracked by Silver is -7.0 on immigration, -16.7 on trade, -19.8 on the economy and -32.5 on inflation. His net approval on the economy and inflation have both dropped since late October, with a slight recent rebound. On immigration, his net approval has dropped steadily since October.

Silver has historical ratings for presidents since Harry Truman. Trump’s net approval is only ahead of Trump’s own first term at this stage of past presidencies. Joe Biden’s net approval was the next weakest.

In November 2026 all 435 House of Representatives seats and one-third of the 100 senators will be up for election at midterm elections. In Fiftyplusone’s aggregate of the generic ballot^[2], Democrats lead Republicans by 4.2 points, a slight gain for Democrats since October.

The benchmark US S&P 500 stockmarket index^[3] had slumped 5.1% from its October 29 peak on November 20, but has rebounded strongly to just 0.9% below its peak. Stockmarket gains may explain Trump’s modest ratings recovery.

Republicans today retained a federal House seat in Tennessee^[4], although there was a large swing to the Democrats. With nearly all votes counted, the Republican led the Democrat by 53.9–45.1, an 8.8-point margin. Trump had defeated Kamala Harris in this district in 2024 by 22.3 points. I covered this special election and Canadian and Chile electoral events for The Poll Bludger^[5].

Large-sample Redbridge Australian poll gives Labor 54–46 lead

The Poll Bludger reported^[6] a national Australian Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted November 7–26 from a sample of 4,775, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the regular Redbridge November 7–13 poll^[7] (fieldwork dates overlap).

Primary votes were 35% Labor (down three), 26% Coalition (up two), 18% One Nation (steady), 10% Greens (up one) and 11% for all Others (steady). Labor led by 56–44 in New South Wales, 54–46 in Victoria and 58–42 in Western Australia, but trailed by 52–48 in Queensland.

In the youngest generation, the Greens had 37% of women and 18% of men, with Labor getting 44% among men and 31% with women, while the Coalition had 20% among men and 16% among women. In the second oldest generation, One Nation had 26% with men and 17% with women.

Labor retains 50–44 lead in Essential

A national Essential poll^[8], conducted November 19–23 from a sample of 1,020, gave Labor a 50–44 lead including undecided by respondent preferences, unchanged from the October Essential poll.

Primary votes were 36% Labor (steady), 27% Coalition (up one), 15% One Nation (steady), 11% Greens (up two), 7% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (steady). All Others had 15.0% at the 2025 election, but only get 7% in this poll. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about 55.5–44.5.

Most polls that have asked for respondent preferences have had Labor doing worse than by 2025 election preferences, but the recent large-sample Morgan poll^[9] had Labor doing 1.5 points better with respondent preferences than 2025 election flows.

Albanese’s net approval improved three points to +4, with 47% approving and 43% disapproving. Ley’s net approval slid two points to -13.

On climate change^[10], 53% (down one since March) thought climate change is happening and is caused by human activity, while 31% (down four) said we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. On addressing climate change, 36% (up one) thought Australia was not doing enough, 30% (down four) doing enough and 20% (up one) doing too much, a record high for this poll.

By 45–39, respondents did not think the world would be able to prevent dangerous levels of global warming.

On gambling advertising, 40% said the government should ban all gambling ads, 23% heavily restrict gambling ads, 28% moderately restrict gambling ads and 9% said the government doesn’t need to restrict gambling ads.

On best to lead the Liberals, Ley had 15% (up one since October), Jacinta Price 11% (up one), Andrew Hastie 8% (down two), Angus Taylor 5% (down two) and Tim Wilson 5% (up two), with 10% for someone else (down two) and 45% unsure (up three). Among Coalition voters, Ley had 21%, Hastie 17% and Price 12%.

Australian Election Study is flawed

The Australian Election Study^[11] (AES) released its report on the 2025 federal election on November 26. This used a sample of 2,070 taken months after the May election. However, the surprise Labor landslide at the election likely influenced the results, leading to a more negative opinion of then-Liberal leader Peter Dutton.

It would be far better for the AES to do this poll in the week before the election and use the election results to adjust poll estimates. United States exit polls do this, such as for the 2024 presidential election^[12].

The Poll Bludger had a wrap^[13] of the AES results.

LNP gains from Katter party at Queensland byelection

A byelection occurred on November 29 in the Queensland state seat of Hinchinbrook, after Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) member Nick Dametto resigned to successfully run for Mayor of Townsville. The Liberal National Party (LNP) gained Hinchinbrook^[14] from the KAP, winning by 53.8–46.2, a 16.9% swing to the LNP since the 2024 Queensland election.

Primary votes were 41.2% LNP (up 13.0%), 30.2% KAP (down 16.2%), 13.4% One Nation (up 8.8%), a dismal 8.3% for Labor (down 5.7%) and 3.5% Greens (up 0.3%). Hinchinbrook is a regional seat^[15] that hasn’t been held by Labor since 1957. It contains some of Townsville, and the federal Townsville-based seat of Herbert^[16] has swung strongly to the LNP since Labor won it very narrowly in 2016.

Liberals slide in Tasmanian EMRS poll

A Tasmanian state EMRS poll^[17], conducted November 17–21 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 34% of the vote (down four since August), Labor 25% (up one), the Greens 17% (up four), independents 19% (steady) and others 6% (steady). Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two-party estimate is not applicable.

Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s net favourability slumped 19 points to -1, while Labor leader Josh Willie’s net favourability slid eight points to -4.

Given a choice between the Liberals, Labor and Greens on best manager of various issues, most issues recorded gains for the Greens and “none of these” since August at the expense of both major parties.

References

1. ^{^} Nate Silver’s aggregate (www.natesilver.net)
2. ^{^} Fiftyplusone’s aggregate of the generic ballot (fiftyplusone.news)
3. ^{^} US S&P 500 stockmarket index (www.google.com)
4. ^{^} retained a federal House seat in Tennessee (www.nytimes.com)
5. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
6. ^{^} Poll Bludger reported (www.pollbludger.net)
7. ^{^} regular Redbridge November 7–13 poll (theconversation.com)
8. ^{^} Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
9. ^{^} large-sample Morgan poll (theconversation.com)
10. ^{^} climate change (essentialreport.com.au)
11. ^{^} Australian Election Study (australianelectionstudy.org)
12. ^{^} 2024 presidential election (edition.cnn.com)
13. ^{^} Poll Bludger had a wrap (www.pollbludger.net)
14. ^{^} gained Hinchinbrook (pollbludger.net)
15. ^{^} regional seat (www.abc.net.au)
16. ^{^} Townsville-based seat of Herbert (www.abc.net.au)
17. ^{^} Tasmanian state EMRS poll (www.emrs.com.au)