Wed Sep 10

Polling shows Donald Trump’s ratings are poor – but they could be worse

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

It’s nearly eight months since Trump’s second term as United States president began. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls ^[1], Trump’s net approval is currently -7.4, with 51.6% disapproving and 44.2% approving.

Trump’s net approval was initially positive, but fell to -9.7 in late April, soon after the “liberation day” tariffs were announced. His net approval recovered to -3.6 in early June, but slid to a low of -10.3 in late July. Since a slight recovery from that position, his ratings have changed little.

Silver has ratings for presidents since Harry Truman (president from 1945–53), so Trump’s ratings can be compared against other presidents at this point in their terms. Trump’s ratings are only better than his own at this point in his first term, and he’s roughly even with Gerald Ford (president from 1974–77).

On issues, Trump is at net -3.8 on immigration, -14.4 on the economy, -15.9 on trade and -27.0 on inflation. There was a second successive weak US jobs report ^[2] last Friday, but the benchmark US S&P 500 stock index ^[3] rose to a new record high last night.

Until and unless something goes badly wrong with either the real US economy or the stock market, Trump’s ratings are likely to be sustained at about their current level.

Midterm elections for all of the US House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will occur in November 2026. In analyst G. Elliott Morris’ aggregate of the national generic congressional ballot ^[4], Democrats lead Republicans by 44.3–41.4. Democrats have led Republicans narrowly since April.

I covered a special election in a safe Democratic federal seat that Democrats retained with a swing in their favour today for The Poll Bludger ^[5]. I also wrote about Republican gerrymandering in Texas and retaliatory Democratic gerrymandering in California, and electoral events in Norway and France.

Australian Morgan poll and further Resolve and DemosAU questions

A national Australian Morgan poll ^[6], conducted July 28 to August 24 from a sample of 5,001, gave Labor a 56.5–43.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the July Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 34% Labor (down 2.5), 30% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 9% One Nation (up two) and 15% for all Others (up 1.5). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 55.5–44.5, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since July.

Labor’s two-party vote gender gap widened to 8.5 points from five points in July, with women giving Labor a 60.5–39.5 lead, while men gave them just a 52–48 lead.

The age gap also widened, with people aged under 50 swinging to Labor from July, while those aged over 50 swung to the Coalition. The Coalition gained a 50.5–49.5 lead with those aged 50–64 and extended its lead to 56.5–43.5 with those aged 65 and over.

In further questions from the August 11–16 Resolve poll ^[7] for Nine newspapers that gave federal Labor a 59–41 lead, 28% wanted to keep the current 43% emissions reduction target ^[8] by 2030, 17% wanted a more ambitious target, 12% wanted the 2030 target rejected or reduced and to just concentrate on net zero by 2050, and 17% wanted to reject all current emissions targets.

In a national DemosAU poll ^[9], conducted July 31 from a sample of 1,079, 56% supported the ban on YouTube for children under 16 while 29% were opposed. Among parents of children under 16, support was 59–34. By 55–32, parents said they wouldn’t help their children circumvent the ban.

By 45–33, respondents supported the government’s proposal ^[10] to increase the tax rate on superannuation earnings for balances over $3 million. By 57–22, they did not believe the changes would lead to them personally paying more tax.

Essential poll

In a national Essential poll ^[11], conducted August 20–24 from a sample of 1,034, Anthony Albanese’s net approval was down three points since July to +6, with 49% approving and 43% disapproving. Sussan Ley’s net approval was unchanged at -2.

On the economy, 43% (down nine since January) thought it would stay the same in the next six months, 35% (up six) get worse and 22% (up three) improve. Labor was trusted to manage the economy overall by 41–28 over the Coalition. Economic management is normally a strength for the Coalition.

On regulation, 29% thought there was too much, 21% not enough and 49% about the right amount. But 54% said there was not enough regulation of AI and 44–48% said the same of social media, big businesses and childcare.

By 34–30, respondents supported Australia recognising Palestine. By 50–24, they supported the introduction of a four-day working week.

In questions asked only of the Victorian sample of 518, Labor Premier Jacinta Allan had a net approval of -15, with 51% disapproving and 36% approving. Liberal leader Brad Battin had a net approval of +5.

Bradfield court challenge update

In July the Liberals challenged their 26-vote loss to Teal Nicolette Boele in Bradfield at the federal election ^[12] to the High Court, acting as the Court of Disputed Returns. The High Court referred this case to the federal court.

The Guardian said that ^[13] on August 22 the court had given lawyers for the Liberals and Boele three days each to examine 792 disputed ballot papers. A final list of ballot papers that are disputed by the Liberals and Boele will need to be submitted by September 25. There will be a one-day hearing on October 2.

Tasmanian EMRS poll gives Liberals big lead

A Tasmanian EMRS poll ^[14], conducted August 25–28 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 38% of the vote (down two from the July 19 election), Labor 24% (down two), the Greens 13% (down one), independents 19% (up four) and others 6% (up one). Tasmania uses a proportional system, so a two-party estimate is not applicable.

Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff’s net favourable surged 12 points since May to +18, while new Labor leader Josh Willie recorded an initial net +4 favourable. Rockliff led Willie by 50–24 as preferred premier.

NSW Kiama byelection

A byelection for the New South Wales state seat of Kiama will occur on Saturday after the resignation of independent MP Gareth Ward, a convicted felon ^[15]. ABC election analyst Antony Green said there are 13 candidates for the byelection ^[16], including Labor and Liberal candidates. Labor is the favourite to win.