Sun Apr 6

Labor gains 52–48 lead in Newspoll and Redbridge as poll trend to Labor continues

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll ^[1], conducted March 31 to April 4 from a sample of 1,250, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the March 27–29 post-budget Newspoll ^[2]. This is Labor’s biggest lead in Newspoll since May 2024. This poll was mostly taken before Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 3 AEST.

Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one) and 12% for all Others (steady). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about 52–48. As One Nation flows have been adjusted towards the Coalition, Labor was probably lucky in the rounding to get to 52–48.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped two points to -11, with 53% dissatisfied and 42% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval was up one point to -17. Albanese led as better PM by 48–40 (49–38 previously).

Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term, in which the plus signs are Newspoll data points and a trend line has been fitted.

Albanese Newspoll ratings.

The 52–48 Labor leads in Newspoll and Redbridge are the best for Labor during the election period from anyone except Morgan, which has had three polls in a row with Labor ahead by at least 53–47. The polls are trending in Labor’s favour, with Labor ahead in the five polls released since March 30.

Labor Two Party Preferred Vote in national polls.

In the two trading days after Trump’s tariff announcement, US stock markets suffered brutal falls, and the Australian market is expected to slump on Monday ^[3]. I believe these falls will undermine Trump’s economic credibility and make it more difficult for the more pro-Trump major party (the Coalition).

There are three electoral events ^[4] next week as we approach the May 3 election. On Monday at 8pm, the electoral roll closes. People need to register or update their details by then to be able to vote.

On Thursday, candidate nominations close, and on Friday they are declared. It will benefit pollsters to know exactly which candidates are running in particular seats.

Redbridge poll: Labor gains for a 52–48 lead

A national poll by Redbridge and Accent Research ^[5] for the News Corp tabloids, conducted March 28 to April 1 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Redbridge poll ^[6] that was conducted March 13–24. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (up one) and 19% for all Others (up two).

By 43–40, voters did not think the Labor government was focused on the right priorities, but this was a big improvement from 52–30 in November 2024. By 43–38, voters did not think the Coalition led by Dutton is ready for government (a reversal from 40–39 agreement last November).

By 40–39, voters preferred the Coalition’s fuel excise cut over Labor’s income tax cut. By 33–28, voters thought Albanese and Labor’s economic vision was better for them than Dutton and the Coalition’s. By 31–29, they thought Labor’s economic vision better for Australia than the Coalition’s.

On type of government ^[7], 31% wanted a majority Coalition government and 25% a majority Labor government. The tabloids didn’t provide enough detail on overall figures for minority governments.

Resolve breakdowns and duelling Goldstein seat polls

The post-budget national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers had a 50–50 tie by respondent preferences, representing a 2.1% swing to the Coalition since the 2022 election.

State breakdowns from this poll ^[8], which had a large sample of 3,083, had a 50–50 tie in New South Wales (51.4–48.6 to Labor in 2022), a 52–48 Labor lead in Victoria (54.8–45.2 to Labor in 2022) and a 58–42 Coalition lead in Queensland (54.0–46.0 to the Coalition in 2022). In marginal seats, the Coalition led by 51–49 (50.8–49.2 to Labor in 2022).

The February Resolve poll had given the Coalition a 55–45 lead, and is a clear outlier on the poll graph. We should be wary of analysis that measures results in the March poll against the January and February polls.

Labor had two big improvements by demographics ^[9] between January/February and March, going from 58–42 behind to a 50–50 tie with men, and from 55–45 behind to a 52–48 lead with those aged 35 to 54.

I previously reported ^[10] that a JWS poll in teal-held Goldstein had the Liberals leading teal Zoe Daniel by 54–46. The Poll Bludger reported ^[11] last Thursday that a uComms poll for Climate 200, conducted March 18–25, gave Daniel a 54–46 lead. This was a two-point gain for Daniel since late February. Seat polls are unreliable.

NSW, Victorian and Queensland state polls

I covered the federal NSW DemosAU poll on Friday ^[12]. The state poll ^[13], conducted March 24–26 from a sample of 1,013, gave Labor a 54–46 lead (54.3–45.7 to Labor at the March 2023 state election). Primary votes were 34% Coalition, 33% Labor, 14% Greens and 19% for all Others.

Labor incumbent Chris Minns led the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier by 42–24. By 43–38, respondents did not think NSW was headed in the right direction.

A Victorian state Resolve poll ^[14] for The Age, conducted with the February and March federal Resolve polls from a sample of over 1,000, gave the Coalition 41% of the primary vote (down one since January), Labor 24% (up two), the Greens 14% (up one), independents 14% (down three) and others 7% (up one).

This was a small improvement for Labor from the dire January result, but The Poll Bludger gave ^[15] the Coalition about a 54–46 two-party estimated lead. Liberal Brad Battin led Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan by 36–23 as preferred premier (36–27 in January).

Battin’s net likeability improved five points to +9, while Allan’s net likeability has been dropping since her first poll as premier in December 2023. She’s now at -32 net likeability, down eight points since January.

A Redbridge Queensland state poll ^[16], conducted March 17–25 from a sample of 1,507, was provided to The Courier Mail. It gave the Liberal National Party a 56.5–43.5 lead (53.8–46.2 to the LNP at the October 2024 state election). Primary votes were 44% LNP, 27% Labor, 12% Greens, 10% One Nation and 7% for all Others.

LNP Premier David Crisafulli was at net +29 favourable (46% favourable, 17% unfavourable, 25% neutral). Labor leader and former premier Steven Miles was at net -13 favourable (39% unfavourable, 26% favourable, 22% neutral).