Mon Mar 25

Labor drops to a 51–49 lead in Newspoll; Labor chooses to concede Tasmanian election

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll ^[1], conducted March 18–22 from a sample of 1,223, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, four weeks ago. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down two).

Labor’s worst Newspoll this term occurred in late November, when it was tied with the Coalition at 50–50. In the next three Newspolls, conducted from December to February, Labor led by 52–48, but it has now slid to its second worst Newspoll.

Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 51% dissatisfied (steady) and 44% satisfied (up one), for a net approval of -7, up one point. Peter Dutton’s net approval slid one point to -15. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 48–34 (47–35 four weeks ago).

This graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since the beginning of this term shows there hasn’t been a recovery since the October Voice referendum. Prior to this referendum, Albanese’s ratings were about net zero, but since then his ratings have been well below zero.

Albanese net approval in Newspoll.

I believe inflation and the cost of living are still negatives for Labor. Morgan’s weekly consumer confidence ^[2] measure has fallen back recently, and has spent a record 59 successive weeks below 85. In the March Freshwater poll ^[3], cost of living was rated important by 72%, up three since February.

Labor won’t contest federal Cook byelection

Nominations were declared last Friday for an April 13 federal byelection in former Liberal PM Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook ^[4]. Morrison won Cook by a 62.4–37.6 margin against Labor at the 2022 election. Labor won’t contest the byelection, with the Greens and an independent likely to be the Liberals’ only competition.

Tasmanian election: Labor unnecessarily concedes

The most likely outcome of Saturday’s Tasmanian state election is for the Liberals to win 15 of the 35 seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network three and independents two. The Liberals would be three short of the 18 needed for a majority. Analyst Kevin Bonham has more ^[5] on the count.

These results won’t be confirmed until the Hare-Clark preference distributions take place after the deadline for receipt of postals passes on April 2.

If the most likely outcome occurred, the JLN would have the balance of power between the Liberals and a Labor and Green bloc. If Labor or the Greens won one more seat, Labor, the Greens and the two independents could form a government without needing the JLN.

However, all this may be moot because Labor has conceded ^[7]. It appears Labor won’t form a government that includes the Greens. Labor has been out of power in Tasmania since the 2014 state election.

Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark system, not a single-member system where majorities for one party are much easier to obtain. If Labor won’t cooperate with the Greens to form government, the next Tasmanian Labor government is not likely to form anytime soon.

Redbridge Victorian poll: Labor down but still far ahead

The Herald Sun on Monday reported that a Victorian Redbridge poll ^[8], conducted March 14–20 from a sample of 1,559, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the last Victorian Redbridge poll in December ^[9]. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up two), 36% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (down three) and 16% for all Others (up two).

The Herald Sun’s report says this is the first time the Coalition has had a primary vote lead over Labor in Victoria since June 2021. This may apply to Redbridge, but a Victorian Morgan poll ^[10] that was conducted in July 2023 after the Commonwealth Games were axed had the Coalition ahead on primary votes, and Labor’s two party lead at 53–47.