Mon Sep 4

Albanese records first net negative Newspoll approval as Voice support slumps further

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The first federal Newspoll since mid-July ^[1], conducted August 28 to September 1 from a sample of 1,200, gave Labor a 53–47 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up three), 35% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (steady) and 8% for all Others (down three).

On Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 46% (up six) were dissatisfied and 45% (down six) were satisfied, for a net approval of -1, down 12 points. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval improved two points to -11. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 50–31, down from a 54–29 lead in mid-July.

In a particularly bleak result for the “yes” case in the October 14 referendum on an Indigenous Voice to parliament, “no” led by 53–38, out from a 48–41 “no” lead in mid-July. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger ^[2].

Here is the chart of all 2023 Voice polls by Newspoll, Resolve, Essential and Morgan that I first published ^[3] in July. As we approach the referendum, it continues to worsen for “yes”.

2023 Voice polls.

Just one of 25 Labor-initiated referendums have succeeded in winning the required four of the six states as well as a national majority. While not succeeding, referendums held at general elections have performed far better than those held midterm.

The Voice would have had a far better chance at a general election. Choosing to hold it midterm was a blunder.

Albanese’s Newspoll net approval of -1 is easily his worst this term. His previous worst net approval was -10 in late June. The graph below is an update of the graph I published with the mid-July Newspoll article.

Albanese net approval in Newspoll.

Labor’s 53% two party vote in this Newspoll is its lowest for this term, a drop from 54% in March and late June. I believe both the Voice and the cost of living are affecting Albanese and Labor’s ratings.

YouGov used to administer Newspoll, but Pyxis Polling has now taken over. Pyxis was formed when two senior staff quit Newspoll. While YouGov’s Newspolls used fieldwork periods from Wednesday to Saturday, this Newspoll used a Monday to Friday fieldwork.

The sample size of 1,200 for this Newspoll is lower than the 1,500–1,600 used for most Newspolls conducted by YouGov. However, The Poll Bludger’s report said that the “effective” sample size (sample after weighting adjustments) for this Newspoll was near the actual sample size, while for the YouGov polls it was well under the actual sample.

A Tasmanian EMRS poll ^[5], conducted August 15–21 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 38% of the primary vote (up two since May), Labor 32% (up one), the Greens 14% (down one) and all Others 16% (down two). In May, the Liberals were down six points.

Incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Rebecca White by 42–39 as preferred premier, reversing a White lead of 40–38 in May. Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two party estimate is not applicable.