Tue Sep 6

Labor extends big lead in Newspoll, but Morgan is much better for Coalition

Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The Conversation

This week’s Newspoll is the second since the May federal election, after the first appeared five weeks ago ^[1]. Labor led by 57-43, a one point gain for Labor. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady), 31% Coalition (down two), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady) and 10% for all Others (steady).

61% were satisfied with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s performance (steady) while 29% were dissatisfied (up three), for a net approval of +32, down three points. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval dropped four points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 61-22 (59-25 five weeks ago).

This poll was conducted August 31 to September 3 from a sample of 1,505. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger ^[2].

The drop in Dutton’s ratings and the increase in Labor’s lead may be due to the revelations of former Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s secret ministries.

Analyst Kevin Bonham ^[3] said this Newspoll was the biggest lead for either side since February 2015 after Tony Abbott’s Prince Philip knighthood. But honeymoon polling is not predictive of the next election.

However, Bonham said Victorian Labor will want federal Labor’s honeymoon to continue until the Victorian state election on November 26. A popular federal government will reduce the federal drag on the same state political parties.

Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan continues to show the Coalition doing much better than other polls. Their weekly update video ^[4], for polling conducted August 22-28, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 39.5% Coalition (up one), 36% Labor (down 1.5), 10.5% Greens (down one) and 4% One Nation (up 1.5).

Morgan has usually been the best poll for Labor, but now it is easily the Coalition’s best poll. Will this skew to the Coalition in Morgan relative to other polls continue?

A Morgan poll ^[5] taken in late August from a sample of 1,240, had 61% preferring to partner with the US for security issues, with the European Union on 22% and the UK on 14%. On preferred economic partner, 43% selected the EU, 25% the US and 22% the UK.

Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings rebound

In an Essential poll ^[6], conducted in the days before September 6 from a sample of 1,070, 59% approved of Albanese’s performance (up four since August), and 25% disapproved (down three), for a net approval of +34, up seven points. Albanese’s ratings had fallen from a high June peak in July and August.

Regarding Morrison’s secret ministries, by 51-25 respondents thought he should resign from federal parliament, and by 59-18 they thought he should appear at an inquiry into the issue. A federal ICAC was supported by 76-15 (78-11 in October 2021).

Respondents were asked whether they trusted various institutions. The most trusted was scientific bodies like CSIRO (71% at least some trust, 23% little or no trust). State health authorities were trusted by 62-33. Politicians were the least trusted, with state parliaments at 48-47 trust and the federal parliament at 48-46 not trusted.

Trust in health authorities peaked at 70% in May 2021, but declined to 59% by June this year. It has now rebounded a little to 62%. Federal parliament’s trust has continued to decline from 55% in August 2020. The beginning of the COVID pandemic explains the high trust ratings in 2020.

Additional Resolve federal and NSW questions

The Poll Bludger ^[7] reported August 31 that additional questions from the federal Resolve poll I reported August 23 ^[8] had 62% supporting the 43% cut to carbon emissions, including 27% strongly supporting. Opposition was at 19%, including 10% strongly opposed.

In a New South Wales Resolve poll, conducted with the federal survey from a sample of about 500, 56% thought former NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro’s trade commissioner appointment a case of “jobs for the boys”, with only 14% selecting the alternative that Barilaro was a worthy candidate in a fair process.

By 45-27, respondents thought Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet had handled the Barilaro affair badly.

Liz Truss will be Britain’s next PM

The result of the UK Conservative postal membership vote was announced Monday, with Liz Truss defeating Rishi Sunak by a 57.4-42.6 margin. Truss will now replace Boris Johnson as UK prime minister after Johnson was forced to resign as Conservative leader in early July, though he remained caretaker PM.

I covered this and some upcoming international elections for The Poll Bludger ^[9] on Monday. Far-right Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is likely to be ousted in October by a former left-wing president.