Labor retains clear Newspoll lead and large Ipsos lead as record number of candidates nominate

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 20-23 from a sample of 1,538, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged from last week. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (up one), 11% Greens (down one), 4% UAP (steady), 3% One Nation (down one) and 9% for all Others (steady).

54% were dissatisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance (up two), and 42% were satisfied (down one), for a net approval of -12, down three points. Anthony Albanese gained two points to be at -12 net approval. Morrison led as better PM by 46-37 (44-37 previously). Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger^[1].

After a rise to -9 net approval last week, Morrison fell back into negative net double digits. But Albanese only recovered two points of net approval after last week’s 11-point crash, which was the biggest poll to poll^[2] drop for an opposition leader since Bill Shorten lost 16 in February 2015.

Although last week’s Newspoll was stable at 53-47 to Labor, all other polls last week had a reduced Labor lead. This week’s Ipsos poll, which gave Labor a 55-45 lead, is easily Labor’s best of the campaign.

The Poll Bludger^[3] reported Monday that the Coalition hopes to win regional and outer suburban seats to make up for losses in the inner city by using controversial Warringah candidate Katherine Deves as a “foghorn”.

My view is that concerns over the economy, such as inflation, will be far more important to most voters than culture war issues. The ABS will release its March quarter inflation report Wednesday. Also, city whites without a university education have not moved to the right in the same way they have in the regions.

Read more: Will a continuing education divide eventually favour Labor electorally due to our big cities?^[4]

Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

An Ipsos poll^[5] for The Financial Review, conducted April 20-23 from a sample of 2,302, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged from early April. Primary votes were 34% Labor (down one), 32% Coalition (up one), 12% Greens (up two), 4% One Nation^[6] (steady), 3% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down one) and 8% undecided (up one).

By 2019 election preference flows, Labor led by 50-42 (51-42 previously) – the headline figure excludes undecided. By respondent allocated preferences, Labor led by 48-38 (48-37 previously).

48% disapproved of Morrison (steady) and 34% approved (up one), for a net approval of -14. Albanese’s net approval was down two points to -4. Albanese led as preferred PM by 40-38 (38-37 previously).

Record number of candidates for House

Candidate nominations for the election closed last Thursday, and were declared Friday. The Poll Bludger^[7] wrote there are a record 1,203 candidates for the House of Representatives, up from 1,056 in 2019 – an average of about eight candidates per seat.

Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and UAP will contest all 151 seats, One Nation will contest 149, the Liberal Democrats 100, the Federation Party 61 and Animal Justice 48. The large number of candidates is likely to increase the informal vote owing to numbering errors.

Newspoll and other polls have assumed One Nation would only contest the 59 seats it did in 2019. Their results for One Nation are thus far lower than they would be if they were asking for it nationally. One Nation’s support is likely to double in next week’s polls to about 6%.

While House candidates are at a record, the number of above the line boxes for the Senate is down from 2019 in most states. I will have more on the Senate in a future article.

Last week’s Essential poll: Labor’s “2PP+” lead at just 47-46

I covered last week’s Newspoll and Resolve polls here^[8]. There were two additional polls last week from the most Coaliton-friendly pollster (Essential) and the most Labor-friendly one (Morgan). Both had Labor’s lead falling.

In last week’s Essential^[9] poll, conducted^[10] April 14-17 from a sample of 1,020, Labor led by 47-46, down from 50-45 in early April, on Essentail’s “2PP+” that includes undecided.

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 35% Labor (down one), 9% Greens (down one), 4% UAP (up one), 3% One Nation (down one), 5% for all Others (steady) and 7% undecided (up two).

48% disapproved of Morrison^[11] (steady since March) and 44% approved (down one), for a net approval of -4. Albanese’s net approval was down seven to zero. Morrison led as better PM by 40-36 (39-36 in March).

Essential asked for ratings of Greens leader Adam Bandt and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce. Bandt had a 33-27 approval and Joyce a 45-33 disapproval. This is far better for Joyce than Resolve polls of him last year, with a July 2021 Resolve poll^[12] giving Joyce a 45-16 negative rating.

The federal government had a 40-35 good rating for its response to COVID (39-35 in March). State government ratings were relatively stable from March, with Victoria the lowest and WA the highest.

Labor was trusted more than the Coalition by at least 15 points to manage four aspects of the caring economy. 34% (up two since March) thought the Coalition deserved to be re-elected, while 48% (steady) thought it was time to give someone else a go.

Morgan poll: 55-45 to Labor

A Morgan poll^[13], conducted April 11-17 from a sample of 1,382, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (up three), 35% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 4.5% One Nation (down 0.5), 1.5% UAP (steady), 6.5% independents (down two) and 3% others (down one).

This is the first time since November that the Coalition has been ahead of Labor on primary votes, and the highest Greens support in Morgan since the previous election.

WA poll: Albanese leads Morrison on economic management

The Poll Bludger^[14] reported a Painted Dog poll conducted for The West Australian from a sample of 1,241 on April 20. The poll gave Albanese a 54-46 lead over Morrison on handling the economy, which is normally a Coalition strength. Morrison’s net approval was -29, while Albanese was at net zero.

The Poll Bludger notes that this poll has never provided voting intentions, and so has never been tested at an election. In the March quarter Newspoll aggregate, both Morrison and Albanese were at net -5 approval in WA.

Seat polls: Kooyong, North Sydney and Griffith

Seat polls are unreliable, and particularly those released for partisan campaigns.

The Poll Bludger^[15] reported that a uComms poll in the Melbourne seat of Kooyong for the campaign of independent Monique Ryan gave Ryan a 59-41 lead over Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, from primary votes of 35.5% Frydenberg, 31.8% Ryan, 12.8% Labor and 11.7% Greens. This poll was conducted April 12 from a sample of 847.

A Community Engagement poll in North Sydney, conducted April 11-12 from a sample of 1,114, gave the Liberals 37.1% of the primary vote, an independent 19.4%, Labor 17.3%, the Greens 8.7%, the UAP 5.6%, others 3.8% and undecided 8.2%. No two party vote was given.

The Poll Bludger^[16] reported that the Greens claim they will win the Brisbane seat of Griffith from Labor based on 25,000 responses to their door-knocking campaign. They claim this method was accurate in predicting Greens successes at past elections.

Macron easily wins French presidential election

In Sunday’s French presidential runoff election, incumbent Emmanuel Macron defeated the far-right Marine Le Pen by a 58.5-41.5 margin. My Poll Bludger^[17] article also included a preview of the May 5 UK local and Northern Ireland assembly elections.

A prior article^[18] covered Republican Florida governor Ron DeSantis’ Florida gerrymander, and an upcoming UK parliamentary byelection in Wakefield.

References

1. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
2. ^{^} biggest poll to poll (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
4. ^{^} Will a continuing education divide eventually favour Labor electorally due to our big cities? (theconversation.com)
5. ^{^} Ipsos poll (static.ffx.io)
6. ^{^} One Nation (twitter.com)
7. ^{^} Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
8. ^{^} here (theconversation.com)
9. ^{^} Essential (essentialreport.com.au)
10. ^{^} conducted (www.pollbludger.net)
11. ^{^} disapproved of Morrison (essentialreport.com.au)
12. ^{^} July 2021 Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
13. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
14. ^{^} Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
15. ^{^} Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
16. ^{^} Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
17. ^{^} Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
18. ^{^} prior article (www.pollbludger.net)