Australia

Sat May 3

Labor wins surprise landslide, returned with a thumping majority

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

With 52% of enrolled voters counted, The Poll Bludger ^[1] has Labor ahead in 92 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, the Coalition in 43, the Greens in two, independents in 11 and others in two. In called seats, Labor is on 76 (already a majority), the Coalition 32, independents six and others two.

Labor has gained ten seats and the Coalition has lost ten, including Peter Dutton’s Dickson ^[2] to Labor. It’s amazing that Labor has held the Victorian seat of Aston ^[3], which they had gained from the Coalition during Labor’s honeymoon period.

The Poll Bludger gives Labor a projected national two-party preferred vote of 54.5–45.5, a 2.4% swing to Labor since the 2022 election. Current primary votes are 34.7% Labor (up 2.3%), 30.5% Coalition (down 3.9%), 12.8% Greens (up 0.3%), 6.2% One Nation (up 1.3%), 2.0% Trumpet of Patriots (new), 8.1% independents (up 4.5%) and 5.8% others (up 0.6%).

I believe this election result was mostly because Dutton became too close to One Nation and Donald Trump for the Australian people to tolerate. Dutton would have done better to have stuck to the cost-of-living issue and avoided culture wars.

With the addition of the YouGov poll below, Albanese finished the campaign at a net -4.2 using an average of five polls in the final week that asked for leaders’ ratings. Dutton finished at -20.8.

The Canadian election on Monday ^[4] and now Australia’s election demonstrate the left’s ability to win elections. Many thought Trump’s election would herald an era of right-wing dominance, but both Canada’s Conservatives and Australia’s Coalition lost what had looked like wins two months ago. Both leaders also lost their seats.

Before the 2022 Australian election, I wrote that Australia and Canada ^[5] could be strong for the left owing to big cities that make up a large share of the population in both countries. The right’s gains in the last decade have been biggest in regional areas.

The polls understated Labor at this election, with none of the ten polls by different pollsters conducted in the final week putting Labor’s two party share above 53%. The Morgan poll that was conducted April 14–20 gave Labor a 55.5–44.5 lead, but Morgan’s final two polls retreated back to a 53–47 Labor lead.

The Ipsos poll below that gave Labor just a 51–49 lead and the Freshwater poll ^[6] that gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead were particularly poor. I will give a full assessment of the polling when the results are nearly complete.

This is the poll graph I’ve been publishing with the provisional Labor two-party win by 54.5–45.5 marked.

Labor Two Party Preferred Vote in national polls.

The polls below were not released in time for Friday night’s final poll wrap ^[7].

The final national YouGov non-MRP poll,^[8] conducted April 24 to May 1 from a sample of 3,000, gave Labor a 52.2–47.8 lead, a 1.3-point gain for the Coalition since the April 17–22 YouGov poll ^[9].

Primary votes were 31.4% Coalition (up 0.4), 31.1% Labor (down 2.4), 14.6% Greens (up 0.6), 8.5% One Nation (down two), 2.5% Trumpet of Patriots (up 0.5), 6.7% independents (up 1.7) and 5.2% others (up 1.2). By 2022 election flows, Labor would lead by 54.2–45.8.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -6, with 49% dissatisfied and 43% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval slumped six points to a record low in YouGov of -24. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 51–34 (50–35 previously).

A national Ipsos poll ^[10] for The Daily Mail was released Friday without fieldwork dates provided, but the sample was 2,574. Labor led by 51–49 from primary votes of 33% Coalition, 28% Labor, 12% Greens, 8% One Nation, 2% Trumpet of Patriots, 12% for all Others and 5% undecided.

Ipsos has conducted Australian polling before, but this was its only voting intentions poll this term. Its previous two polls for The Daily Mail had only asked about the leaders’ ratings.

The final wave of the tracking poll of 20 marginal seats ^[11] by Redbridge and Accent Research for the News Corp tabloids gave Labor a 53–47 lead across these seats, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week.

Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down two), 12% Greens (down two), 6% One Nation (down one) and 15% for all Others (up five). These seats voted for Labor by 51–49 at the 2022 election, so this poll has a 2% swing to Labor across these seats.

Labor won nationally in 2022 by 52.1–47.9, so this poll implies about a 54–46 Labor national margin.