World

Mon Nov 11

Coalition retains narrow Newspoll lead as Dutton gains; where Democrats may have erred in US election

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll ^[1], conducted November 4–8 from a sample of 1,261, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in early October. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (up two), 33% Labor (up two), 11% Greens (down one), 5% One Nation (down two) and 11% for all Others (down one).

Anthony Albanese’s net approval slid one point to -15, with 55% dissatisfied and 40% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval rose three points to -11. Albanese’s better PM lead dropped to 45–41 (45–37 previously).

It’s the first time this term that Dutton has had a better net approval than Albanese and Albanese’s smallest better PM lead.

Here is the graph showing Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll. The plus signs are data points and a smoothed line has been fitted.

Albanese Newspoll ratings.

While economic data has been better for Labor recently, with Morgan’s consumer confidence rising above 85 in mid-October for the first time since January 2023, this is not yet flowing through to improved ratings for Labor and Albanese. The Qantas upgrades scandal could be a factor.

For the first time this term, the Coalition has taken the lead in analyst Kevin Bonham’s two-party aggregate ^[2], and now leads by 50.1–49.9. If One Nation preference flows are assigned using their flows at the Queensland election, the Coalition leads by 50.6–49.4.

Resolve poll: Dutton’s ratings surge

A national Resolve poll ^[3] for Nine newspapers, conducted November 6–10 from a sample of 1,621, gave the Coalition 39% of the primary vote (up one since early October), Labor 30% (steady), the Greens 11% (down one), One Nation 5% (steady), independents 11% (down one) and others 4% (up one).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate, but this poll would be a 50–50 tie by 2022 election preference flows, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

Albanese’s net approval improved three points to -14, with 51% giving him a poor rating and 38% a good rating. Dutton’s net approval surged six points to +5. There was a 37–37 tie on preferred PM (37–35 to Albanese previously).

By 40–29, voters thought Donald Trump’s election as US president would be bad for Australia. Trump’s net likeability was -29, with 55% having a negative opinion and 26% a positive one.

The Liberals had a 41–27 lead over Labor on economic management ^[4] (38–26 previously). The Liberals led by 35–28 on keeping the cost of living low (31–24 previously).

Australian economic data

In the September quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said headline inflation ^[5] fell to just 0.2% from 1.0% in the June quarter. In the 12 months to September, headline inflation increased 2.8%, down from 3.8% in June.

However, core inflation increased 0.8% in the September quarter for a 3.5% 12-month rate. The Reserve Bank’s interest rate decisions will be based on core inflation.

In September the ABS said the unemployment rate ^[6] dropped 0.1% to 4.1%, with 64,100 jobs created. The employment population ratio (the percentage of eligible Australians that are employed) rose 0.1% to 64.4%, an equal record high, tied with May and November 2023.

Morgan’s consumer confidence ^[7] in mid-October surged 4.1 points to 87.5 since the previous week, its first reading above 85 since January 2023. In early November ^[8], consumer confidence was down one point to 86.5. Higher consumer confidence should help Labor.

Morgan poll: respondent preferences give Coalition lead

A national Morgan poll ^[9], conducted October 28 to November 3 from a sample of 1,651, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the October 21–27 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up 0.5), 30.5% Labor (up 0.5), 14% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (up 0.5), 7.5% independents (down 1.5) and 4% others (steady).

The headline figure is based on respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, Labor led by 51–49, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.

In a separate Morgan poll ^[10] that was conducted by SMS from October 22–23 with a sample of 1,312, 57% (down three since September 2022) thought Australia should remain a monarchy while 43% (up three) thought we should become a republic with an elected president.

US election: Harris erred in not emphasising health care

After Kamala Harris’ loss, there’s been much commentary on what her campaign did wrong. I think she erred in not emphasising Trump’s record on health care, in which he attempted and nearly succeeded in repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) during his first term.

Analyst Nate Silver said on October 26 that health care had very low issue salience ^[11]. The Harris campaign should have reminded voters of Trump’s nearly successful attempt to repeal Obamacare.

I’ve been following late counting in the United States congressional elections for The Poll Bludger ^[12]. Democrats still have a slight chance to win control of the House of Representatives. I also covered the upcoming Irish and German elections.

Queensland election final results

At the October 26 Queensland state election ^[13], the Liberal National Party (LNP) won 52 of the 93 seats (up 18 since the 2020 election), Labor 36 (down 16), Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) three (steady), the Greens one (down one), independents one (steady) and One Nation zero (down one).

Queensland won’t give us an official two-party statewide count, but the ABC estimated the two-party vote was 53.8–46.2 to the LNP, a 7.0% swing to the LNP. Primary votes were 41.5% LNP (up 5.6%), 32.6% Labor (down 7.0%), 9.9% Greens (up 0.4%), 8.0% One Nation (up 0.9%), 2.4% KAP (down 0.1%) and 5.6% for all Others (up 0.2%).

YouGov and Resolve polls were closest to the two-party estimated result, with YouGov giving the LNP a 54.5–45.5 lead and Resolve giving them a 53–47 lead. Newspoll gave the LNP a 52.5–47.5 lead and uComms was poor, giving the LNP just a 51–49 lead.

KAP contested only 11 seats ^[14], while One Nation and the Greens contested all 93. Concentration of KAP’s vote explains why it won three seats on 2.4% of statewide votes.

The Poll Bludger ^[15] said Labor won the closest seat of Aspley by 31 votes (under 0.1%). In South Brisbane, if the LNP had been ahead of Labor after One Nation preferences, the Greens would have won on Labor preferences instead of Labor beating the Greens on LNP preferences. Labor was ahead at this point by 105 votes or 0.3%.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said the two-party swing ^[16] against Labor was 4.9% with election day votes but 8.6% with pre-poll votes. The large numbers of pre-poll votes now are making it impossible to call elections until pre-poll booths report late on election night.

Green also said One Nation preference flows shifted to the LNP since the 2020 state election. This has implications for the next federal election if One Nation preferences go to the Coalition more than at the 2022 federal election.

SA Black byelection next Saturday

A byelection will occur in the Liberal-held South Australian state seat of Black ^[17] on Saturday, following the resignation of former Liberal leader David Speirs. Speirs won Black by a 52.7–47.3 margin over Labor at the 2022 state election, which Labor won easily. Labor and the Liberals will contest the byelection.