World

Mon Nov 25

The Australia-Pacific bid to host UN climate talks in 2026 is in limbo. What now?

Written by: Wesley Morgan, Research Associate, Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney

Australia and Pacific island nations ^[1] had hoped ^[2] to leave this year’s global climate talks in Azerbaijan having won a bid to host the 2026 summit.

Instead, that decision on who will host the 31st “conference of the parties” (COP31) has been deferred until June next year – after Australia’s next federal election. Turkey, the only other country in the running to host COP31, has resisted lobbying efforts ^[3] to persuade them to drop out.

The seven-month delay risks a less ambitious summit in 2026, because it takes time to build consensus for global initiatives. A decent run-up is needed to develop an ambitious action agenda.

Tens of thousands of participants ^[4] could be expected for a fortnight of negotiations, with satellite events held across the nation and the Pacific.

The joint Australia–Pacific COP bid has had more support ^[5] than Turkey. So rather than wait another seven months, here’s why it’s in all our interests to push ahead with planning for 2026.

Auditioning for COP31 president

Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen played a crucial role at this year’s negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan. Dubbed the “Finance COP ^[6]”, the COP29 talks focused on providing much-needed funds ^[7] to help poorer nations address the climate crisis.

Bowen put his hand up to work with his Egyptian counterpart Yasmine Fouad to find a landing zone ^[8] for a new global consensus on climate finance.

This was difficult, important work. Climate finance is the grand bargain ^[9] at the heart of international climate cooperation, and is key to building trust. Reactions to the COP29 outcomes on finance suggest wealthy nations will need to commit more funds ^[10] to help vulnerable countries pay the steep bills arising from climate change.

By playing a central role in the discussions, Bowen was effectively auditioning for the part of president of the UN climate talks in 2026 (if he is still in government when Australia hosts COP31). But his efforts are yet to be rewarded.

How to host UN climate talks

Hosting rights are shared between five UN country groupings on a rotational basis. The final decision is made by consensus.

This year, a group of 29 largely western European countries is responsible for the COP31 decision.

Australia’s bid was supported by other nations in the group including the United States ^[11], United Kingdom ^[12], France ^[13], Germany ^[14], Canada ^[15] and New Zealand ^[16].

But Turkey also put in a serious bid. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attended COP29 to garner support ^[17] for Turkey to host the talks.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met with Erdoğan at last week’s G20 summit ^[18] in Rio De Janeiro, while Bowen made a last-minute dash to the Turkish capital Ankara ^[19] to encourage Turkey to withdraw, with no success.

The partnership with Pacific island countries may ultimately get Australia’s bid over the line. Pacific nations have been leaders in the fight to tackle the climate crisis ^[20] for decades and their moral authority is needed now more than ever.

A crucial opportunity

Far more than a two-week talkfest, the summit could help pave the way for Australia’s economic success ^[21] in a world rapidly shifting from fossil fuels to clean energy. It would also help secure our place in the Pacific during a time of growing strategic rivalry.

Hosting the UN climate talks is also a chance to bolster climate action at a time when global cooperation is under strain. US President-elect Donald Trump is likely to tear up US climate targets and withdraw from the Paris Agreement ^[22].

As a middle power, Australia will never be able to dominate the international scene, and has an overriding national interest in a rules-based global order ^[23]. This applies equally to rules and agreements on trade, security and climate. Hosting COP31 is a chance to pursue responsible middle-power diplomacy to shore up global commitment to climate action.

Several Australian cities have put up their hand to hold the COP31 summit, including Brisbane ^[24], Sydney ^[25] and Perth ^[26]. But Adelaide has a particularly strong case ^[27].

South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskus joined Bowen in Baku to spruik the state’s credentials ^[28], including its aim to be 100% powered by renewables by 2027 ^[29].

South Australia would use COP31 to try to attract investment and grow clean energy exports, with a focus on using wind and solar power to produce green hydrogen, green iron and green steel ^[30] at the Whyalla steelworks.

Traditional steelmaking is very polluting and responsible for roughly 10% of global carbon dioxide emissions ^[31].

Australia is the world’s largest exporter of raw iron ore, but is well positioned to export more-valuable, and lower-polluting, green iron to major economies in our region. The potential export value of green iron is estimated to be $295 billion per year ^[32], or three times the current value of iron ore exports.

South Australia has made a bold bid to host COP31 (SA Government)

Spotlighting hosts’ fossil fuel emissions

There have been growing concern the UN climate talks aren’t delivering ambitious action to shift away from fossil fuels. Climate activist Greta Thunberg describes the talks as “blah blah blah ^[33]” – fiddling while the world burns.

Further eroding confidence, the talks have been hosted by a succession of petro-states ^[34] that are major oil and gas exporters ^[35] (Egypt in 2022, United Arab Emirates in 2023 and Azerbaijan in 2024).

Leading climate experts – including former UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and UN climate chief Christiana Figueres – issued an open letter ^[36] at COP29 calling for urgent reform of the COP process. They suggest only nations committed to transitioning away from fossil energy ^[37] should be eligible to host the talks.

Today, Australia remains one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and gas ^[38]. Emissions from exported fossil fuels are more than double ^[39] those from Australia’s entire domestic economy. Before COP31, Australia would be expected to develop and share a plan to phase out fossil fuel production.

Those expectations would come from close to home. Vanuatu’s climate envoy Ralph Regenvanu last week said Australia was “not acting in good faith ^[40]” by promoting climate credentials while continuing to approve new coal and gas projects.

Vanuatu and nine other Pacific countries are among a group of nations calling for a global treaty ^[41] to manage the phase out of fossil fuel production.

Australia will be expected to set an ambitious target to cut emissions in the next decade. All countries are due to set 2035 emissions targets next year. The UK has already set a target to cut emissions by 81% by 2035.

However, both Albanese and opposition leader Peter Dutton have suggested they won’t announce new climate targets before the next federal election ^[42], due by May 2025.

Two years from now, there’s every chance Australia and the Pacific will be hosting the world. This could be a golden opportunity to work together to address a shared threat. Whether or not we end up hosting, we need to get cracking now.