US midterm results: What Republican losses could mean for Donald Trump
- Written by: The Times
Democrats have picked up Senate seats in North Carolina and South Carolina. With control of Congress still undecided, the early results raise a question that will shape Trump’s final two years in office: how much of his agenda can he still get through Washington?
Donald Trump will spend the next two years in the White House. The US midterm elections will determine how often he has to bargain with Democrats to get things done.
The first signs of trouble for Republicans came from the South. The Associated Press called North Carolina for former Democratic governor Roy Cooper and South Carolina for Democrat Annie Andrews. Democrats also held Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff won re-election, and New Hampshire. The party made gains in competitive House races, but control of both chambers remained unresolved in the early count.
South Carolina was the standout. Trump carried the state by nearly 18 percentage points in 2024. Two years later, voters there elected a Democratic senator for the first time in 28 years. Democrats needed a net gain of four Senate seats for an outright majority and three to take the House. The two Carolina victories moved them closer, with several competitive races still counting.
Losing the House would change the way Trump governs
A Democratic majority in the House could decide which bills come up for a vote and which parts of the administration face scrutiny. Committee chairs could call hearings, seek documents and question officials about how federal money was spent or how policies were carried out. That alone could absorb a great deal of the White House’s time.
The more immediate pressure would come from spending. Federal funding bills have to pass both chambers. A Democratic House could refuse to pass the administration’s preferred bill and seek concessions in exchange for its votes. Republicans in the Senate and Trump in the White House would have leverage of their own. The practical consequence would be more negotiation over which programmes get funded, at what level and under what conditions.
Losing the Senate would put Trump’s appointments in play
The Senate has a power the House lacks. It decides whether to confirm the president’s nominees for federal courts, Cabinet posts and other senior positions that require Senate approval. A Democratic majority could slow hearings, withhold floor votes or reject nominees. If a Supreme Court vacancy arose, the balance of power in the Senate would become one of the most consequential results of the election.
A Republican Senate could keep confirming Trump’s nominees even if Democrats took the House. That is why the two results deserve separate headlines. One chamber can make it harder for a president to pass bills and secure funding. The other can shape who serves in his administration and who sits on federal courts long after he leaves office.
The political cost could arrive before January
Any new congressional majority would ordinarily take office on 3 January. Republican lawmakers, however, can start drawing their own conclusions from the results now. A senator looking at the South Carolina result may think differently about how closely to campaign alongside Trump or how readily to back a White House proposal. That matters even if Republicans retain a narrow majority, where a small number of defections can change the outcome of a vote.
The cost of living was prominent in the campaign. In North Carolina, Cooper campaigned on the price of food and energy. Local candidates and local issues shaped individual races, but Republicans will have to consider what it means when voters who backed Trump for president are willing to elect Democrats to Congress two years later.
What Australia should watch
For Australian exporters, the immediate question is whether Washington changes the rules that apply to the goods they sell. A change in congressional control does not itself alter a tariff. Trump can still act where existing laws give his administration authority, while a change that requires new legislation must go through both chambers. For an Australian business quoting a US customer, the duty that applies when the goods arrive matters more than the election-night seat tally.
The Times View
Watch the first federal funding fight after the new Congress takes office. If Democrats gain a chamber, the spending bill will show which of Trump’s priorities they are willing to fund and what they demand in return. If Republicans hold both, it will show whether their own members are still willing to give him the votes he needs. The roll call on that bill will tell us more about Trump’s ability to govern than anything he says about the election result.
