Wed Feb 11

Liberals facing wipe-out in South Australian lower house: new poll

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A South Australian Fox & Hedgehog state poll has the Liberals facing a possible wipe-out in the lower house, losing seats to Labor and One Nation. One Nation continues to surge in a federal YouGov poll, and Newspoll has respondent preferences for a Labor vs One Nation contest.

The South Australian state election will be held on March 21. A Fox & Hedgehog poll ^[1] for The Advertiser, conducted January 31 to February 8 from a sample of 904, gave Labor a 61–39 lead over the Liberals by respondent preferences, unchanged from the December Fox & Hedgehog SA poll ^[2].

Primary votes were 40% Labor (down one), 20% One Nation (up seven), 19% Liberals (down two), 12% Greens (steady) and 9% for all Others (down four). A “three-party preferred” gave Labor 54%, One Nation 25% and the Liberals 21%, with Labor crushing One Nation by 63–37, two points higher than the Labor vs Liberal two-party estimate.

If this poll is accurate, there is some chance the Liberals will win zero of the 47 lower house seats. Labor would win a big majority, with the few conservative seats more likely to go to One Nation than the Liberals. At the previous SA election in 2022 ^[3], the Liberals won 16 seats, with Labor winning the two-party vote by 54.6–45.4.

Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas was at 52–21 approve (51–19 in December) and new Liberal leader Ashton Hurn was at 20–13 approve (former leader Vincent Tarzia was at 25–17 disapprove). Malinauskas led Hurn as preferred premier by 54–22 (54–18 vs Tarzia).

One Nation recruited former right-wing federal Liberal SA senator Cory Bernardi as its lead candidate for the upper house. Half of the 22 upper house seats are up at this election by statewide proportional representation with preferences. With a quota of one-twelfth or 8.3%, Bernardi is certain of election on One Nation’s current polls. His ratings in this poll were 19–15 disapprove.

SA Labor was at 45–28 approve, the SA Liberals at 37–25 disapprove and One Nation at 36–30 approve. Federal politicians listed in this SA poll were Anthony Albanese (44–35 disapprove), Sussan Ley (32–17 disapprove), Pauline Hanson (44–34 approve), Angus Taylor (20–13 disapprove) and Andrew Hastie (17–15 disapprove).

Newspoll respondent preferences for Labor vs One Nation contest

Monday’s federal Newspoll ^[4] gave Labor 33% of the primary vote, One Nation 27%, the Coalition 18%, the Greens 12% and all Others 10%. When voters from parties other than Labor and One Nation were asked to assign preferences between these parties ^[5], Labor had 50% of all preferences, One Nation 29% and 21% said they would follow how to vote card recommendations or didn’t know.

If we exclude these 21%, the overall Labor share of preferences is 63%, and Labor wins the two-party vote against One Nation by more than 58–42. This would be reduced somewhat if Coalition how to vote cards recommend preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor.

By party, Greens preferences favoured Labor over One Nation by an overwhelming 91–1, while Liberal preferences favoured One Nation at a far weaker rate (43–33). All Other preferences favoured Labor by 53–32.

YouGov poll: One Nation’s surge continues

A national YouGov poll ^[6] for Sky News, conducted February 3–10 from a sample of 1,561, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (down one since the January 20–27 YouGov poll ^[7]), One Nation 28% (up three), the Coalition 19% (down one), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 5% (down one) and others 6% (steady).

Labor led One Nation by 55–45 using respondent preferences, a two-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

Albanese’s net approval was down two points to -18, with 56% dissatisfied and 38% satisfied. Ley’s net approval was down nine points to -40. Albanese led Ley as better PM by 47–25 (47–29 previously).

On best to lead the Liberals, Hastie had 15%, Ley 10% and Taylor 8% with 60% undecided. Among 2025 election Coalition voters, Hastie had 25%, Ley 12% and Taylor 11%.

Morgan poll: Labor down after interest rate hike

A national Morgan poll ^[8], conducted February 2–8 from a sample of 1,584, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5 lead over the Coalition by respondent preferences, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since the January 26 to February 1 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 28.5% Labor (down two), 24.5% One Nation (down 0.5), 22.5% Coalition (up two), 13.5% Greens (up one) and 11% for all Others (down 0.5). By 2025 election flows, Labor led by 53–47, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition. No Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate was reported.

Newspoll didn’t suggest Labor had been damaged by the February 3 interest rate hike, but both Morgan and YouGov suggest some damage.