One Nation surges to new high as Coalition slumps to record low in latest Newspoll

Newspoll, Redbridge and Morgan polls all have One Nation second behind Labor, with the Coalition third. However, there are no Labor vs One Nation two-party estimates.

A national Newspoll^[1], conducted February 5–8 from a sample of 1,234, gave Labor 33% of the primary vote (up one since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago^[2]), One Nation 27% (up five), the Coalition 18% (down three), the Greens 12% (steady) and all Others 10% (down three).

This is a record high for One Nation in any poll and a record low for the Coalition. But last week’s Redbridge and Morgan polls had One Nation leading the Coalition by seven and 4.5 points respectively. On current polls, One Nation is beating the Coalition into second place.

In a single-member electoral system like the House of Representatives, the consequences for a major party that falls to third would be brutal. On current polling, the Coalition would struggle to win ten of the 150 House seats.

As the Coalition is no longer second, no Labor vs Coalition two-party estimate was released by Newspoll. None of the three polls in this article have released a Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate. A late January YouGov poll^[3] gave Labor a 57–43 respondent-allocated preference lead over One Nation.

Analyst Kevin Bonham^[4] has Labor vs Coalition and Labor vs One Nation two-party aggregates using 2025 Senate preference flow data. He has Labor leading One Nation by 54.1–45.9 and the Coalition by 54.3–45.7. With the massive drop in the Coalition vote since the last election^[5], this method may not be reliable.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved one point to -10, while Sussan Ley’s net approval slumped 11 points to a new low of -39, the worst for a major party leader in Newspoll since Labor’s Simon Crean in 2003. Albanese led Ley as better PM by 49–30 (51–31 previously).

This graph shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since he became PM in 2022, with a smoothed line fitted.

Amid the Coalition’s turmoil, Labor will be relieved this poll was not worse for them after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates^[6] last Tuesday.

One Nation’s poll surge and a potential Labor vs One Nation contest

Before the December 14 Bondi terrorist attacks, One Nation had already surged from 6.4% at the last election to the high teens in polls^[7]. I believe this reflected frustration from right-wing voters with Labor’s landslide at the election and the perceived weakness of Ley’s leadership.

The Bondi attacks played into One Nation’s anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim themes, sending it into the 20s^[8], just behind the Coalition. The Coalition split on January 22^[9] has resulted in One Nation overtaking the Coalition on primary votes. The Coalition reformed yesterday^[10], but the damage may already be done.

If One Nation replaces the Coalition as the main right-wing party at the next election, I believe Labor has advantages. While One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s net favourability surged 16 points to -3 in the Redbridge poll below, she hasn’t yet come under media and Labor scrutiny for her policies. If One Nation is seen as a potential government by the next election, they will receive far more scrutiny.

One Nation is further to the right than the Coalition. An important reason for Labor’s landslide was that the Coalition was perceived as too close to US President Donald Trump. With Trump at -51 net favourable with Australians in the Redbridge poll, it will be difficult for a pro-Trump party to win.

The next Australian federal election is due by May 2028, before the next US presidential election in November 2028.

Redbridge poll has One Nation seven points ahead of Coalition

A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll^[11] for The Financial Review, conducted January 22–29 from a sample of 1,003, gave Labor 34% of the primary vote (down one since the last Redbridge poll in December), One Nation 26% (up nine), the former Coalition parties 19% (down seven), the Greens 11% (down two) and all Others 10% (up one).

No Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate was provided, with Labor leading the Coalition by an unchanged 56–44 using 2025 election preference flows.

Albanese’s net favourability was down 11 points to -10, while Ley was down 12 to -32. Albanese led Ley as preferred PM by 37–9 with 34% for neither (41–12 previously^[12]).

While both Albanese and Ley slumped, Hanson’s net favourability surged 16 points to -3 and Barnaby Joyce’s net favourability was up eight points to -19.

Liberal leadership aspirants Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor were respectively at an even 16–16 and 17–13 unfavourable, while Nationals leader David Littleproud was at 27–13 unfavourable. Donald Trump was at 67–16 unfavourable.

Morgan poll: One Nation now leading Coalition

A national Morgan poll^[13], conducted January 26 to February 1 from a sample of 1,401, gave Labor 30.5% of the primary vote (steady since the January 19–25 Morgan poll), One Nation 25% (up 2,5), the Coalition 20.5% (down two), the Greens 12.5% (down 0.5) and all Others 11.5% (steady).

There was no Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate. Labor led the Coalition by 56–44 using respondent preferences, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election flows, Labor led by an unchanged 54.5–45.5.

The four January Morgan polls^[14] have had One Nation and the Coalition going in opposite directions. One Nation was at 15% in the first poll, then 21%, 22.5% and 25%, while the Coalition began at 30.5%, then 24%, 22.5% and 20.5%.

Morgan also released demographic breakdowns from its four January polls. Compared with November to December, Labor led the Coalition in all states, regaining a 51–49 lead in Queensland. Labor’s biggest lead was in South Australia (61–39), which holds a state election on March 21.

Labor led by 56–44 with women and 52.5–47.5 with men. They led by 65.5–34.5 with those aged 18–34, 58–42 with those aged 35–49 and 51.5–48.5 with those aged 50–64. The Coalition led by 58–42 with those aged 65 and older.

One Nation’s support was highest in New South Wales at 25.5%, beating its traditional strongest state of Queensland (24%). Their support by age peaked with those aged 50–64 at 27%.

References

1. ^{^} Newspoll (www.theaustralian.com.au)
2. ^{^} Newspoll three weeks ago (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} YouGov poll (theconversation.com)
4. ^{^} Kevin Bonham (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
5. ^{^} since the last election (www.abc.net.au)
6. ^{^} Reserve Bank raised interest rates (www.rba.gov.au)
7. ^{^} high teens in polls (theconversation.com)
8. ^{^} sending it into the 20s (theconversation.com)
9. ^{^} Coalition split on January 22 (www.abc.net.au)
10. ^{^} reformed yesterday (www.abc.net.au)
11. ^{^} Redbridge and Accent Research poll (www.afr.com)
12. ^{^} previously (theconversation.com)
13. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
14. ^{^} January Morgan polls (www.roymorgan.com)