The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
Men's Weekly

.

Treasury modelling says indirect impact of Trump’s tariffs likely to be worse than immediate impact for Australia

  • Written by Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra



Donald Trump’s trade and tariff policy would bring a small reduction in Australia’s output and extra price pressures, especially in the short term, according to Treasury modelling.

But our flexible exchange rate and the independence of the Reserve Bank would help mitigate some of the effects.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who commissioned the modelling ahead of the US election, will outline the analysis in a Monday speech to the Australian Institute of International Affairs. Extracts were released ahead of delivery.

Chalmers warns the analysis found that globally the potential impact of Trump’s policies – which include a general 10% tariff and a huge 60% hit on Chinese goods – was much more substantial than the immediate effect on Australia.

“The timing of this, and the responses and ramifications that might follow – what economists call second-round effects – are difficult to predict.

"But we wouldn’t be immune from escalating trade tensions that might ensue.

"This is consistent with the views expressed by the Prime Minister, Treasury Secretary, Reserve Bank Governor, and CEO of the National Australia Bank.”

Chalmers says the government is confident of being able to navigate, “as partners”, the changes a Trump administration would bring.

“Nobody should underestimate our ability to make it work.”

In his speech, the Treasurer also talks up the role of Australia’s Ambassador to Washington, Kevin Rudd, in preparing for the new administration. Rudd’s future has been questioned by some, given his past strong language about Trump. Last week he deleted his old social media posts.

Chalmers says: “Prior to the US election, Ambassador Rudd helped many of us build and deepen our connections across the political aisle. He introduced me to Lael Brainard, the Director of President Biden’s National Economic Council and a key figure in Vice President Harris’ orbit.

"And he introduced me to Scott Bessent [a candidate for treasury secretary].

"We had a long discussion after dinner, at the Ambassador’s residence, two Thursdays ago.

"Getting more than a hour with a key member of President Trump’s economic team 12 days before the election was a very valuable opportunity.

"We spoke about monetary policy, inflation, and tariffs and trade.”

Read more https://theconversation.com/treasury-modelling-says-indirect-impact-of-trumps-tariffs-likely-to-be-worse-than-immediate-impact-for-australia-243150

Times Magazine

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Science Behind Reverse Osmosis and Why It Matters

What is reverse osmosis? Reverse osmosis (RO) is a water purification process that removes contaminants by forcing water through a semi-permeable membrane. This membrane allows only water molecules to pass through while blocking impurities such as...

Foodbank Queensland celebrates local hero for National Volunteer Week

Stephen Carey is a bit bananas.   He splits his time between his insurance broker business, caring for his young family, and volunteering for Foodbank Queensland one day a week. He’s even run the Bridge to Brisbane in a banana suit to raise mon...

Senior of the Year Nominations Open

The Allan Labor Government is encouraging all Victorians to recognise the valuable contributions of older members of our community by nominating them for the 2025 Victorian Senior of the Year Awards.  Minister for Ageing Ingrid Stitt today annou...

CNC Machining Meets Stage Design - Black Swan State Theatre Company & Tommotek

When artistry meets precision engineering, incredible things happen. That’s exactly what unfolded when Tommotek worked alongside the Black Swan State Theatre Company on several of their innovative stage productions. With tight deadlines and intrica...

The Times Features

Running Across Australia: What Really Holds the Body Together?

How William Goodge’s 3,800km run reveals the connection between movement, mindset, and mental resilience As a business owner, I’ve come to realise that the biggest wins rarely com...

Telehealth is Transforming Healthcare Services in Australia

It has traditionally not been easy to access timely healthcare in Australia, particularly for people who live in remote areas. Many of them spend hours on the road just to see a...

Launchd Acquires Huume, Strengthening Creative Firepower Across Talent-Led Marketing

Launchd, a leader in talent, technology and brand partnerships, has announced its acquisition of influencer talent management agency Huume from IZEA. The move comes as the medi...

Vietnam's "Gold Coast" Emerges as Extraordinary Investment Frontier and Australian Inspired Way of Life

$2 Billion super-city in Vung Tau set to replicate Australia's Gold Coast success story A culturally metamorphic development aptly named "Gold Coast" is set to reshape Vietna...

Choosing the Wrong Agent Is the #1 Regret Among Aussie Property Sellers

Selling your home is often one of the largest financial transactions you’ll make, and for many Australians, it’s also one of the most emotional. A new survey of Australian home se...

Travel Insurance for Families: What Does it Cover and Why it’s Essential

Planning a family trip is exciting, but unexpected mishaps can turn your dream vacation into a stressful ordeal. That’s where travel insurance comes in—it’s your safety net when ...