Mon Jun 17

Dutton snatches preferred PM lead in Resolve poll as draft redistributions finished

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Resolve poll ^[1] for Nine newspapers, conducted June 11–15 from a sample of 1,607, gave the Coalition 36% of the primary vote (steady since the May post-budget Resolve poll), Labor 28% (down one), the Greens 14% (up two), One Nation 6% (down one), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 11% (down one) and others 4% (up two).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two party estimate, but applying 2022 preference flows to this poll would give Labor about a 51–49 lead, unchanged since May. This is where the good news from this poll ends for Labor.

Peter Dutton has taken a 36–35 lead as preferred PM over Anthony Albanese, a reversal of a 40–32 lead for Albanese in May. The preferred PM measure usually skews to incumbents relative to voting intentions. This is the first time any national poll has given Dutton a preferred PM lead.

Albanese’s ratings were 50% poor and 36% good, for a net approval of -14, down three points since May. Dutton’s net approval surged seven points to +2. This is Dutton’s second positive net approval from any national poll, after an April Essential poll ^[2] gave him a +3 net approval.

On economic management, the Liberals extended their lead over Labor to 40–24 from 38–29 in May. The Liberal lead on keeping the cost of living low increased slightly to 32–25 from 32–26.

When asked to rank the most important issue, 54% selected keeping the cost of living low, while just 7% selected the environment and climate change. I believe this explains why Dutton isn’t suffering a backlash from his climate stance ^[3].

Last week’s Newspoll ^[4] had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, so this Resolve poll is more evidence that Dutton is advancing. The Morgan poll below differs, but it is a volatile poll.

Freshwater poll steady at a 50–50 tie

A national Freshwater poll ^[5] for The Australian Financial Review, conducted June 14–16 from a sample of 1,060, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged from the May post-budget Freshwater poll. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down one) and 15% for all Others (up one). Freshwater is usually better for the Coalition than other polls.

Albanese’s lead as preferred PM over Dutton was reduced to 43–41 from 46–37 in May. Albanese’s net approval fell four points to -12, with 46% disapproving and 34% approving. Dutton’s net approval was up four points to -5.

Labor’s position against the Coalition on a range of issues was reduced by one to eight points since May, including a six-point widening in the Coalition’s lead on the crucial issue of cost of living to 36–27.

Morgan poll Labor’s best for three months

In the national Morgan poll ^[6] that was conducted June 3–9 from a sample of 1,687, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the May 27 to June 2 poll. This was Labor’s best position in this series for three months. However, the Coalition had its best result this term in the May 20–26 Morgan poll ^[7], when they led by 51.5–48.5. This pollster is volatile.

Primary votes in the latest poll were 35% Coalition (down one), 30.5% Labor (down 0.5), 15.5% Greens (up 1.5), 5.5% One Nation (up one), 9.5% independents (up 0.5) and 4% others (down 1.5).

North Sydney abolished in NSW federal draft redistribution

The New South Wales federal draft redistribution was released last Friday. North Sydney, currently held by teal independent Kylea Tink, was abolished. The Poll Bludger ^[8] has calculated the new margins for all NSW seats.

Bennelong is the only change in notional party alignment, with a 1.1% swing to the Liberals barely putting them ahead of Labor. In Bradfield, the Liberal margin over a teal independent was reduced to 52.5–47.5, a 1.8% swing to a teal. The Liberal-held Hughes swung 3.7% to Labor, with the Liberals still ahead by 53.3–46.7.

I covered the Victorian and Western Australian draft federal redistributions ^[9] on May 31. It’s expected to be a few months ^[10] before the redistributions are finalised. Until finalisation, the new boundaries can’t be used at an election.

Analyst Kevin Bonham, using the draft redistributions, said his seat model ^[11] would give Labor 79 of the now 150 House of Representatives seats if there was no two-party swing from the 2022 election, which Labor won ^[12] by 52.1–47.9. This would be a one-seat gain for Labor from the current House.

Assuming no changes to the crossbench, Labor would have an even chance of retaining their majority with a 51.1–48.9 national two-party win, about where polls are now. The Coalition would need a 51.3–48.7 two-party split in its favour to win more seats than Labor, and a 53.4–46.6 split to win a majority.

NSW Redbridge poll: Labor barely ahead

A New South Wales state Redbridge poll, conducted in two waves in February and May from a sample of 1,376, gave Labor just a 50.5–49.5 lead, a four-point gain for the Coalition since the March 2023 election ^[13]. Primary votes were 40% Coalition, 35% Labor, 11% Greens and 14% for all Others. This poll was reported in The Daily Telegraph ^[14] on June 10.

Despite the poor voting intentions result for Labor, the “Labor government led by Chris Minns” had a +20 net approval, with 40% rating it good and 20% poor. The Coalition opposition led by Mark Speakman had a -2 net approval (21% poor, 19% good).

In other NSW news, there will be a byelection this Saturday in Northern Tablelands ^[15], which the Nationals won by 83.8–16.2 over Labor at the 2023 election. The Poll Bludger ^[16] reported last Thursday that Labor is not contesting the byelection.

Right advances in Europe as early French election called

I covered the June 6–9 European parliament election for The Poll Bludger ^[17]. Right-wing parties made gains mainly at the expense of the Greens and the liberals.

After dismal European election results for his party, French President Emmanuel Macron called new parliamentary elections, two years into a five-year term. The first round of these elections will be held on June 30, with the runoffs on July 7.