From power prices to chocolate fountains, the Tasmanian election campaign has been a promise avalanche

Tasmanian Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff is something of an unknown entity. Ethan James/AAP

Here’s where things get interesting. This election will see the highest number of independents (29) contesting a Tasmanian election for decades.

While there are too many to list them all, ones to keep an eye on include:

• John Tucker and Lara Alexander (the Liberal MPs who quit in 2023)

• David O’Byrne (former Labor leader)

• Kristie Johnson (a sitting independent MP)

• Sue Hickey (former Hobart Lord Mayor, former Liberal then independent MP).

Finally, there’s the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN), which is running candidates in all seats except Clark. The JLN made the controversial decision not to release any policies, instead pitching themselves as a group of down-to-earth people that wants to “keep the bastards honest”.

Read more: Tasmania is going to an early election. Will the country's last Liberal state be no more?^[5]

Which issues have dominated the campaign?

Polling during the campaign showed the top concerns^[6] for most Tasmanian voters were health care and cost of living. Labor and Liberal both put forward several measures aimed at these areas, among others.

Millions of dollars have been promised with the enthusiasm of a discount carpet warehouse closing-down sale – but this hasn’t necessarily^[7] helped win votes. In fact, this sort of policy bonanza can confuse and overwhelm voters.

Tasmanian Labor has spruiked their power prices policy, but remains behind the Liberals in the polls. Rob Blackers/AAP

In an ideal world, we would each decide our vote by comparing each candidate or party’s full set of policies, and figuring out which one best matches our own values. But who has time for that?

In reality, people typically vote based on a combination of other things^[8], including specific, controversial issues, eye-catching headlines, and candidates’ personalities. This is how democracies tend to work all over the world.

So what were the things that might have shifted votes during this campaign?

The long-running divide in Tasmanian society between environmental conservation and economic development remains, meaning voters may decide whom to side with depending on each party’s stance on salmon farming or the proposed new AFL stadium, for example.

Some influential issues are hyper-local, such as a long-closed community pool^[9].

There have been a few “headline grabbers” during the campaign, designed to stick in the minds of undecided voters. The best example of this is the Liberals’ promise to build the world’s largest chocolate fountain^[10] if elected. Labor’s refrain^[11] “Tasmanian prices for Tasmanian power” is also in the mix.

The final thing that may sway voters is what Dennis Denuto^[12] would call “the vibe” around candidates.

Rockliff has benefited from the perception that he’s a “nice guy^[13]” in tough circumstances, while White has struggled to separate her brand from the O’Byrne controversy and earlier Labor factional fighting^[14].

The Greens have been doorknocking hard, particularly in the state’s northwest^[15]. That personal contact may help them get a new candidate across the line.

The JLN has leaned heavily on their namesake’s forceful “battler” personality. Each independent has tried to build their own brand, typically by focusing on a specific issue or spruiking their ability to stand up to the major parties. It’s tricky to tell how successful these efforts have been – the proof will be in the votes.

The lowlights

There have been a few lowlights during the campaign. First prize goes to the fake JLN site set up^[16] by the Liberal Party. This particular piece of skulduggery is not against electoral law, but it’s certainly against the spirit of democracy. It might not have the desired effect: this type of negative campaigning can turn voters away^[17] from the offending party.

Another disappointing aspect of the campaign was Rockliff and White repeatedly ruling out offering ministries or policy concessions to independents, the JLN, or the Greens in exchange for their support. This is due to the perceived failure of previous power-sharing^[18] deals in Tasmania.

Read more: The Jacqui Lambie Network is the latest victim of 'cybersquatting'. It's the tip of the iceberg of negative political ads online^[19]

Rockliff even proposed that MPs who quit their party should be booted out^[20] of parliament and replaced with a candidate from the same party – a stunt that ignores that our political system is based on candidates being elected to represent a constituency, not a party.

Rockliff and White may come to regret their strident rhetoric when the votes are counted. It looks very unlikely^[21] either party will win the 16 seats needed to form a majority government.

Read more https://theconversation.com/from-power-prices-to-chocolate-fountains-the-tasmanian-election-campaign-has-been-a-promise-avalanche-225783

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