The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

  • Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll[1], conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice referendum. This is Labor’s narrowest lead in Newspoll since the 2022 federal election.

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up two percentage points), 35% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all others (down one).

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 52% dissatisfied (up six points) and 42% satisfied (down four), for a net approval of -10, down ten points. This is easily his lowest net approval in Newspoll since becoming PM. This graph shows the continued decline in Albanese’s Newspoll ratings since late 2022.

Albanese net approval in Newspoll from July 2022 to October 2023.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval improved five points to -13. Albanese’s lead over Dutton for preferred prime minister narrowed to 46–36%, from 51–31% previously. This is also Albanese’s smallest lead since the election. Newspoll and Redbridge figures are from The Poll Bludger[2].

The slumping polls show how damaging the heavy defeat of the Voice referendum and continuing cost of living pressures have been to Albanese and Labor.

Redbridge national poll: Labor’s lead holds steady

The Herald Sun[3] reported Sunday that a Redbridge national poll, conducted October 25 to November 2 from a sample of 1,205 people, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5% lead over the Coalition, a 0.6-point gain for the Coalition since early September[4].

Primary votes were 35% Coalition (down one point), 34% Labor (down three), 14% Greens (up one) and 17% for all others (up three).

The Herald Sun emphasised large primary vote swings against Labor among those with lower educational attainment, but these would be based on small subsamples of the overall sample, and are thus not reliable.

Voice referendum final results

All of the votes in the October 14 referendum on an Indigenous Voice to Parliament have now been counted and the final results are in.

Nationally, “no” won the referendum[5] by a 60.06–39.94% margin, or 20.1 points. “No” also won every state, by 8.3 percentage points in Victoria, 17.9 points in New South Wales and Tasmania, 26.5 points in Western Australia, 28.3 points in South Australia and 36.4 points in Queensland.

For the referendum to be successful, it needed a majority in at least four of the six states, as well as a national majority. The territories are counted towards the national total, but not the majority of states. The “no” vote won in the Northern Territory by 20.6 percentage points, while “yes” came out ahead in the ACT by 22.6 points.

Nationally, 34 of the 151 House of Representatives electorates[6] voted “yes” while 117 voted “no”. In NSW, 11 of 47 seats voted “yes”, in Victoria 13 of 39, in Queensland three of 30, in WA two of 15, in SA none of ten, in Tasmania two of five, in the ACT all three seats and in the NT none of two.

All seven seats won by “teal” independents and all four won by Greens at the 2022 election voted “yes”, as did 21 of the 78 Labor-held seats. Bradfield in NSW was the only one of 57 Coalition-held seats to vote “yes”.

Read more: Indigenous Australians supported Voice referendum by large margins; Labor retains large Newspoll lead[7]

ABC election analyst Antony Green has a chart showing[8] the “yes” and “no” split by vote type. Pre-poll ordinary votes were far worse for “yes” than polling day ordinary votes, and postals were even worse. But both polling day absent votes and declaration pre-poll votes were better for the “yes” side than polling day ordinary votes.

Turnout for the referendum was 89.9%, higher than the 89.8% turnout recorded for the House at the last federal election.

How did the polls do?

The graph below shows the “yes” lead or deficit in all polls conducted this year, culminating with the final result (“no” by 20.1 points). Newspoll’s final poll was the most accurate, showing a 20-point “no” lead. YouGov’s final poll had an 18-point “no” lead, while Focaldata’s poll suggested a 22-point defeat.

2023 Voice polls and referendum result.

Other pollsters did not perform as well, such as Morgan, whose final poll showed “no” with just a seven-point lead, and Essential, which had given “no” a six-point lead. Essential has altered its methodology[9] since the referendum to weight results by education level.

Newspoll’s state breakdowns[10] were also good at the state level, with the exception of WA. “No” led in the final Newspoll by 13 points in NSW, eight points in Victoria, 35 points in Queensland, 27 points in SA, 37 points in WA and 17 points in Tasmania.

The Resolve poll[11] had “yes” ahead in Tasmania by 56–44% in its final poll, which was a large error given “no” won in the state by almost 18 points.

Newspoll was administered by YouGov until mid-July, but is now managed by Pyxis. Both the new Newspoll and YouGov performed well.

Victorian Mulgrave byelection

A byelection will occur on November 18 in the Victorian state seat of Mulgrave[12], previously held by former Labor Premier Daniel Andrews. At the 2022 state election, Andrews defeated independent Ian Cook after preferences by 60.8–39.2%, and the Liberals by 60.2–39.8%.

Cook is running for the seat again. He will face nine other candidates, including Labor’s Eden Foster and the Liberals’ Courtney Mann.

Argentine legislative results

I covered the Argentine legislative results from the October 22 election in my article for The Poll Bludger[13]. The combined right-wing parties won control of the lower house in Argentina, but failed in the Senate owing to a system similar to first-past-the-post.

References

  1. ^ Newspoll (www.theaustralian.com.au)
  2. ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
  3. ^ Herald Sun (www.heraldsun.com.au)
  4. ^ early September (redbridgegroup.com.au)
  5. ^ referendum (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)
  6. ^ House of Representatives electorates (www.abc.net.au)
  7. ^ Indigenous Australians supported Voice referendum by large margins; Labor retains large Newspoll lead (theconversation.com)
  8. ^ has a chart showing (antonygreen.com.au)
  9. ^ altered its methodology (essentialreport.com.au)
  10. ^ Newspoll’s state breakdowns (www.theaustralian.com.au)
  11. ^ Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
  12. ^ Mulgrave (www.abc.net.au)
  13. ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)

Read more https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-labor-slump-to-worst-position-in-newspoll-since-2022-election-216819

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

Tricia Paoluccio designer to the stars

The Case for Nuturing Creativity in the Classroom, and in our Lives I am an actress and an artist who has had the privilege of sharing my work across many countries, touring my ...

Duke of Dural to Get Rooftop Bar as New Owners Invest in Venue Upgrade

The Duke of Dural, in Sydney’s north-west, is set for a major uplift under new ownership, following its acquisition by hospitality group Good Beer Company this week. Led by resp...

Prefab’s Second Life: Why Australia’s Backyard Boom Needs a Circular Makeover

The humble granny flat is being reimagined not just as a fix for housing shortages, but as a cornerstone of circular, factory-built architecture. But are our systems ready to s...

Melbourne’s Burglary Boom: Break-Ins Surge Nearly 25%

Victorian homeowners are being warned to act now, as rising break-ins and falling arrest rates paint a worrying picture for suburban safety. Melbourne residents are facing an ...

Exploring the Curriculum at a Modern Junior School in Melbourne

Key Highlights The curriculum at junior schools emphasises whole-person development, catering to children’s physical, emotional, and intellectual needs. It ensures early year...

Distressed by all the bad news? Here’s how to stay informed but still look after yourself

If you’re feeling like the news is particularly bad at the moment, you’re not alone. But many of us can’t look away – and don’t want to. Engaging with news can help us make ...