The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Dutton saddles up for Aston race amid Victorian Liberal infighting

  • Written by Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
Dutton saddles up for Aston race amid Victorian Liberal infighting

Byelections for leaders are rather like steeplechases for horses: there is always the risk of serious injury.

Ahead of the 2018 super-Saturday contests, Bill Shorten had an impatient Anthony Albanese shaping up for a tilt in the event of a tumble. Shorten triumphed.

In 2020, Albanese’s position could have become shaky if he had lost the Eden-Monaro byelection. He retained the seat by a whisker, but that was enough.

Peter Dutton on Saturday faces his first real-time electoral test in the Victorian Liberal seat of Aston, with conditions on the track heavy going.

The byelection follows the resignation of former minister Alan Tudge, who, after a scandal over an affair with a staffer, turned an electorate that was safe in 2019 into a marginal one in 2022. It’s now on 2.8%.

Situated in Melbourne’s outer east, Aston should be an opportunity for the Liberals to exploit the mounting cost of living pressures that are weighing people down.

But so far, on the national evidence the Albanese government has been escaping serious blame, with people accepting most of the drivers of rising interest rates and prices are outside its control.

For Dutton, Victoria (like NSW) is difficult territory on which to have to campaign. It’s a progressive state and he is far from a progressive.

The crushing taken by the NSW Liberals on Saturday (who did form a progressive government) is indirectly relevant to Aston.

While the “it’s time” factor, a batch of resignations of well-known Liberals, various scandals and a credible fresh-looking Labor alternative with a pitch that resonated account specifically for the loss, it has reinforced the broader impressing that the tide is out for the Liberal party generally. The NSW defeat has left Tasmania with the only non-Labor government in the country.

Closer to Aston, Victorian Liberal brawling over the move by opposition leader John Pesutto to expel Moira Deeming from the parliamentary party – for her role in an anti-trans rally at which a group of people gave Nazi salutes – has brought a spate of bad publicity.

The argument about whether Pesutto’s reaction went too far raged all last week and will probably continue this week, even in the wake of his expected win in Monday’s vote.

For the electors of Aston, it’s another cameo in the long story of the Liberals in shambles, just as they were at last year’s state election.

While Dutton could keep away from Victoria in the state poll, that’s not an option with Aston. So far, he’s made four visits, the same number as the prime minister.

A top-down preselection by the party’s administrative committee installed a strong candidate, barrister Roshena Campbell. Of Indian heritage, she’s well-qualified and a good media performer, with her main disadvantage being that she’s from distant (in these parochial times) Brunswick. (She’s rented a place in Aston.)

Labor’s Mary Doyle, who works in the superannuation industry, and ran in 2022, lives just outside the electoral but can be promoted as a “real local” on the ground she’s resided in the general area for more than three decades.

The Liberal campaign is based around sending a message to the Albanese government on cost of living, and also focuses on the cuts for local roads projects in the first Chalmers budget.

Labor, playing on Dutton’s unpopularity, is portraying him as someone out of step with the people of Aston. Labor also says its imminent child changes are popular – 5,700 families in Aston will be better off from July.

Unsurprisingly, the Indigenous Voice to parliament, the question for which was announced last week, isn’t getting much attention.

Of particular interest will be the Chinese vote. Aston has, on the 2021 census, about 14% of people of Chinese heritage, Albanese received a very positive reception when he did a Chinese function, even though that was immediately after the AUKUS announcement which sparked a lot of talk about the threat potentially posed by China.

Once, Chinese-Australians looked benignly on the Liberals. Saturday’s NSW result reinforced the message of the federal election – that these voters are now alienated from the Liberals.

How Chinese voters will respond to a candidate of Indian origin is unclear.

Some voters are said to be grouchy at being sent to the polls three times in a year. Quite a few others have not even been aware of the byelection. But with the stakes high and the seat marginal, both sides are fully focused. Liberal federal director Andrew Hirst and Labor’s Josh Lloyd, on leave from Albanese’s staff, have been fixtures in the electorate.

It’s a five-candidate field, but the battle is not troubled by serious alternatives to the two main contenders. There’s no teal running.

The average swing against a government at a federal byelection is 3.7% (since 1949 and where both major parties contested).

Both sides say it’s the Liberals to lose and so does history. It’s more than a century since a government won a federal byelection from an opposition and that was in special circumstances. Nevertheless both are also claiming things are tight.

A Liberal loss would be extraordinary and the fallout unpredictable. Dutton’s leadership would be in tatters but any move against him would struggle to find a credible candidate.

Liberals rail if you say they need more than a knife-edge win. A win is a win is a win, they counter. But a narrow win would be a holding position for Dutton (just as his leadership has been first and foremost about holding the party together).

A solid swing (5% or above) would be a morale booster for the opposition leader. Given the nature and history of the seat, and of byelections, and the national polls, the government would shrug it off although some inside Labor would see it as a warning sign.

Read more https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-dutton-saddles-up-for-aston-race-amid-victorian-liberal-infighting-202600

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

Exploring the Curriculum at a Modern Junior School in Melbourne

Key Highlights The curriculum at junior schools emphasises whole-person development, catering to children’s physical, emotional, and intellectual needs. It ensures early year...

Distressed by all the bad news? Here’s how to stay informed but still look after yourself

If you’re feeling like the news is particularly bad at the moment, you’re not alone. But many of us can’t look away – and don’t want to. Engaging with news can help us make ...

The Role of Your GP in Creating a Chronic Disease Management Plan That Works

Living with a long-term condition, whether that is diabetes, asthma, arthritis or heart disease, means making hundreds of small decisions every day. You plan your diet against m...

Troubleshooting Flickering Lights: A Comprehensive Guide for Homeowners

Image by rawpixel.com on Freepik Effectively addressing flickering lights in your home is more than just a matter of convenience; it's a pivotal aspect of both home safety and en...

My shins hurt after running. Could it be shin splints?

If you’ve started running for the first time, started again after a break, or your workout is more intense, you might have felt it. A dull, nagging ache down your shins after...

Metal Roof Replacement Cost Per Square Metre in 2025: A Comprehensive Guide for Australian Homeowners

In recent years, the trend of installing metal roofs has surged across Australia. With their reputation for being both robust and visually appealing, it's easy to understand thei...