The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

After 12 years in opposition, grassroots politics restores Labor to power in New South Wales

  • Written by Andy Marks, Pro Vice-Chancellor, Strategy, Government and Alliances, Western Sydney University
After 12 years in opposition, grassroots politics restores Labor to power in New South Wales

Sometimes defeat can come with small victories. In his NSW election concession speech, defeated Liberal-National Coalition Premier Dominic Perrottet remarked the campaign had been a “race to the top[1]”. Voters seemed to agree. Perrottet’s opponent, Labor’s Chris Minns, brought the conciliatory tone he maintained as opposition leader into the campaign.

Combative politics, in NSW at least, might be a thing of the past. Minns went further, noting this campaign had set a standard against which Australian federal and state politics could be judged. That will largely depend on his ability to maintain a constructive tenor, as premier, in a parliamentary arena dubbed the “bear pit[2]”.

While calm prevailed between leaders, the flow of votes was volatile. As counting wound up on Saturday evening, Labor looked assured[3] of the 47 Legislative Assembly seats required to form a majority government. Attracting around a 7% statewide swing, Labor’s performance in western Sydney was particularly strong.

There was almost a sense of inevitability[4] about the loss of Parramatta when sitting Liberal Geoff Lee announced his retirement. A protracted preselection battle ensued, with Lee’s successor swept aside by a more than 20% swing to Labor’s well-known candidate, Parramatta Lord Mayor Donna Davis.

Donna Davis won the western Sydney seat of Parramatta with a swing of more than 20%. Dan Himbrechts/AAP

Further west, the seat of Riverstone, vacated by retiring Liberal Kevin Connolly, saw swings eclipsing those of the federal election, propelling Labor’s Warren Kirby into the lower house.

High profile retirements led to vulnerabilities for the Coalition in Sydney’s east as well. Wakehurst, which has been held by outgoing health Minister Brad Hazzard for over 30 years, fell to independent Michael Regan. It remains to be seen whether Ryde and Pittwater, the former stomping grounds of cabinet members Victor Dominello and Rob Stokes respectively, suffer the same fate.

One of the shocks of the night was the ousting[5] of former deputy Liberal leader, Stuart Ayres. Mentioned as a potential leadership candidate post-election, party insiders were confident of overcoming the challenge from local Labor councillor, Karen McKeown, whom Ayres defeated in 2019. Enlisting former Premier Gladys Berejiklian[6] on the campaign trail, Ayres was seeking to re-enter cabinet after his ousting in the fallout from the trade appointment[7] inquiry.

Read more: Australia is now almost entirely held by Labor - but that doesn't necessarily make life easier for leaders[8]

Ayres’ exit will complicate the party’s efforts to rebuild in western Sydney, given his standing in the region, and his industry and community networks. The retirement of his colleague, David Elliott, the former member for Baulkham Hills and Ayres’ successor as Minister for Western Sydney, further depletes the Liberals’ base in the electorally critical region.

Stuart Ayres lost the seat of Penrith to Labor’s Karen McKeown. Bianca de Marchi/AAP

While privatisation fuelled the delivery of a substantial transport infrastructure pipeline for the Coalition over the past two terms, it struggled to balance service provision with population growth.

Lags and gaps[9] in the construction of critical health, education and transport infrastructure proved a pivotal issue for voters in growth areas in Sydney’s outer south-west. Peter Sidgreaves gave up the one-time safe Liberal seat of Camden to Labor’s Sally Quinnell, while her colleague, Nathan Hagarty, secured the newly constituted seat of Leppington.

On the peri-urban edges of the city’s south west, Wollondilly[10] is shaping as a very tight contest between sitting Liberal Nathaniel Smith and former Liberal Party member now independent challenger, Judy Hannan.

Labor’s broadly strong performance in Sydney’s west did not come without some contrasts. Party strategists will be hoping that swings towards the Liberals in Liverpool and Cabramatta are down to the retirement of long serving Labor members, rather than the beginnings of a deeper trend.

In rural and regional parts of the state, voter sentiment was more stable. The Nationals retained the seat of Tweed, with Labor and the Greens failing to attract new support. Labor’s hopes of turning Upper Hunter look thwarted with the Nationals set to retain the seat. However, nearby Terrigal remains in play with Labor edging ahead[11] on the back of a more than 13% swing.

The nominally Shooters, Fishers and Farmers seats of Barwon and Murray now look firmly in the hands of former SFF members, now independents, Roy Butler and Helen Dalton.

Labor’s success overall speaks to the party’s ability to tap into voter concerns at the local level. This is unsurprising in areas like western Sydney, where pandemic lockdowns, followed by rising interest rates, housing unaffordability and wage stagnation focussed minds on “everyday” rather than “grand vision” politics.

To consolidate and build in its victory, Labor will need to translate its success at grassroots campaigning to the wider task of governing. Maintaining its commitment to a “dialogue[12]” on priorities such public sector wages, infrastructure funding and affordable housing will be important.

Read more: View from The Hill: Dutton saddles up for Aston race amid Victorian Liberal infighting[13]

Labor will be keen to point out that solutions to the challenges the state faces cannot come from government alone. Creating wider channels for community, industry and research-led policy development will mitigate Cabinet inexperience. This inclusive approach will also allow Labor to move on from the command-and-control tendencies the Coalition exhibited in the latter half of its incumbency, when it eschewed its traditional “small government” doctrine to create multiple agencies and statutory bodies to augment portfolio responsibilities.

For the NSW Coalition, the task of rebuilding will begin. With Perrottet relinquishing the leadership, and Liberal moderate, Matt Kean ruling himself out[14] as a contender, the party may revert to a candidate from the right. This would certainly mark a departure from the policy convergence with Labor that characterised the campaign.

It might work. It might also signal an end to peace within the bear pit, and a return to more traditional party politics.

References

  1. ^ race to the top (www.theguardian.com)
  2. ^ bear pit (www.smh.com.au)
  3. ^ looked assured (www.smh.com.au)
  4. ^ sense of inevitability (www.abc.net.au)
  5. ^ the ousting (www.abc.net.au)
  6. ^ Gladys Berejiklian (www.abc.net.au)
  7. ^ trade appointment (www.abc.net.au)
  8. ^ Australia is now almost entirely held by Labor - but that doesn't necessarily make life easier for leaders (theconversation.com)
  9. ^ Lags and gaps (www.smh.com.au)
  10. ^ Wollondilly (www.abc.net.au)
  11. ^ edging ahead (www.abc.net.au)
  12. ^ dialogue (theconversation.com)
  13. ^ View from The Hill: Dutton saddles up for Aston race amid Victorian Liberal infighting (theconversation.com)
  14. ^ ruling himself out (www.afr.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/after-12-years-in-opposition-grassroots-politics-restores-labor-to-power-in-new-south-wales-202144

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

Exploring the Curriculum at a Modern Junior School in Melbourne

Key Highlights The curriculum at junior schools emphasises whole-person development, catering to children’s physical, emotional, and intellectual needs. It ensures early year...

Distressed by all the bad news? Here’s how to stay informed but still look after yourself

If you’re feeling like the news is particularly bad at the moment, you’re not alone. But many of us can’t look away – and don’t want to. Engaging with news can help us make ...

The Role of Your GP in Creating a Chronic Disease Management Plan That Works

Living with a long-term condition, whether that is diabetes, asthma, arthritis or heart disease, means making hundreds of small decisions every day. You plan your diet against m...

Troubleshooting Flickering Lights: A Comprehensive Guide for Homeowners

Image by rawpixel.com on Freepik Effectively addressing flickering lights in your home is more than just a matter of convenience; it's a pivotal aspect of both home safety and en...

My shins hurt after running. Could it be shin splints?

If you’ve started running for the first time, started again after a break, or your workout is more intense, you might have felt it. A dull, nagging ache down your shins after...

Metal Roof Replacement Cost Per Square Metre in 2025: A Comprehensive Guide for Australian Homeowners

In recent years, the trend of installing metal roofs has surged across Australia. With their reputation for being both robust and visually appealing, it's easy to understand thei...