Labor retains large lead in Victorian Resolve poll four weeks from election; also leads in NSW

The Victorian state election will be held in four weeks, on November 26. A Resolve poll^[1] for The Age, conducted October 20-24 from a sample of “more than 800”, gave Labor a 59-41 lead over the Coalition.

Resolve does not give a two-party estimate until close to elections, so this is the first Victorian Resolve poll with a two-party estimate. Analyst Kevin Bonham^[2] estimated Labor would lead by 58-42 from the primary votes, a three-point gain for the Coalition since September.

Primary votes were 38% Labor (down four since September), 31% Coalition (up three), 12% Greens (steady), 12% independents (steady) and 6% others (steady). Labor Premier Daniel Andrews led Liberal leader Matthew Guy by 49-29 as preferred premier (46-28 in September).

With just four weeks until the election, the Victorian polls continue to indicate a landslide victory for Labor. But at the last election in 2018^[3], Labor won 42.9% in the lower house, so this poll shows a five-point primary vote swing against Labor.

A five-point primary vote swing against Labor in the upper house would be likely to cost them some of the 18 upper house seats they won at the last election, out of 40 total seats, particularly as the upper house still uses the group voting ticket system which Labor has done nothing to reform in the eight years it has held government in Victoria.

Read more: How Victorian Labor's failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy^[4]

Victorian Morgan poll: 60-40 to Labor

A Victorian Morgan state poll^[5], conducted during September from a sample of 1,379, gave Labor a 60-40 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since August. Primary votes were 42% Labor (up 5.5), 28% Coalition (down one), 14.5% Greens (up 0.5) and 15.5% for all Others (down five).

Voters were asked to specify minor parties from a long list, but only non-teal independents (7%) had more than 2% support. This poll was conducted during September and released October 18, so it is not a recent poll.

NSW Freshwater poll: 54-46 to Labor

The New South Wales state election is in March 2023. A Freshwater poll for The Australian Financial Review, conducted October 13-16 from a sample of 1,042, gave Labor a 54-46 lead (52.0-48.0 to the Coalition at the 2019 election). Primary votes were 37% Labor, 36% Coalition, 11% Greens, 1% Shooters, 5% independents and 11% others.

NSW uses optional preferential voting. For the two party estimate, 47% said they would vote for or preference Labor, 40% the Coalition, 8% would not preference either (exhaust) and 6% were undecided. The headline estimate excluded exhaust and undecided.

Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet had a 37% favourable, 35% unfavourable rating, while Labor leader Chris Minns was at 26% favourable, 15% unfavourable. Minns led Perrottet by 41-38 as preferred premier. Poll figures are from The Poll Bludger^[6].

I have not seen any previous Australian polls by Freshwater, but Newspoll and Resolve both gave NSW Labor large leads in late September, so these results are credible.

Read more: Labor seizes big lead in two New South Wales polls six months before election^[7]

Federal Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings remain strong

In last week’s federal Essential poll^[8], conducted in the days before October 18 from a sample of 1,122, 58% approved of Anthony Albanese’s performance (down one since September) and 26% disapproved (up one), for a net approval of +32.

By 52-48, respondents thought it was never acceptable to break an election promise, over it being acceptable if circumstances change. Asked about Labor’s promise to stick with the Coalition’s changes to the tax system, 53% thought Labor should stick to its promise while 47% thought as the current economic situation is very different to 2019, Labor breaking this promise was understandable.

Some 11% thought they would benefit a great deal from the tax changes, 22% a fair bit, 23% not that much, 10% hardly any and 24% none at all. Voters supported the changes by 29-27.

Federal Resolve poll on Optus and corruption commission

I previously covered the federal Resolve poll^[9] for Nine newspapers that gave Labor an estimated 59-41 two party lead. Additional questions on the Optus hack and the proposed corruption commission are covered here.

By 68-11, voters blamed Optus^[10] over the federal government for the hack. By 59-12, they thought Optus should be fined many millions of dollars for allowing the hack to occur. By 83-3, they thought Optus should pay for new identity documents to be reissued.

By 70-6, voters agreed a federal integrity commission^[11] was needed after being told that all states currently have such bodies. Asked whether more commission hearings should be public, or only public in exceptional circumstances, 51% wanted more public hearings and 27% only in exceptional circumstances.

Morgan poll: 54.5-45.5 to Labor, and YouGov Taiwan poll

In this week’s federal Morgan poll^[12], Labor led by 54.5-45.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Polling was conducted October 17-23.

A YouGov poll for the US Studies Centre at The University of Sydney, conducted in early September from a sample of 1,068, had 46% agreeing that Australia should send military forces to help the United States defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack, while 25% disagreed.

Similar polls were taken in Japan and the US. In Japan, it was 35-29 in favour of helping the US defend Taiwan. In the US, 33% agreed with sending American troops to defend Taiwan, while 31% disagreed. Poll results were reported in The Guardian^[13] on October 25.

Rishi Sunak is Britain’s new PM, Brazilian election and US nidterms update

Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak was the only candidate in the Conservative leadership contest to replace Liz Truss as PM to secure the 100 nominations required from Conservative MPs, and was thus elected Britain’s next PM this week; I covered this for The Poll Bludger^[14].

After no candidate won a majority in the October 2 first round, the Brazilian presidential election will go to a runoff this Sunday. Polls indicate^[15] that the leftist challenger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (called “Lula”) is narrowly ahead of the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

Republicans have continued to improve in the FiveThirtyEight forecasts^[16] with 12 days until the November 8 US midterm elections. Democrats are now just a 52% chance to hold the Senate, down from 61% in my October 20 article. Republicans are an 82% favourite to gain the House of Representatives, up from 75%.

Read more: Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election^[17]

References

1. ^{^} Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
2. ^{^} Analyst Kevin Bonham (twitter.com)
3. ^{^} election in 2018 (en.wikipedia.org)
4. ^{^} How Victorian Labor's failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy (theconversation.com)
5. ^{^} Morgan state poll (www.roymorgan.com)
6. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
7. ^{^} Labor seizes big lead in two New South Wales polls six months before election (theconversation.com)
8. ^{^} Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
9. ^{^} federal Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
10. ^{^} voters blamed Optus (www.theage.com.au)
11. ^{^} federal integrity commission (www.theage.com.au)
12. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
13. ^{^} The Guardian (www.theguardian.com)
14. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
15. ^{^} Polls indicate (en.wikipedia.org)
16. ^{^} FiveThirtyEight forecasts (projects.fivethirtyeight.com)
17. ^{^} Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election (theconversation.com)