The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

People could've prepared for the floods better if the impacts of weather forecasts were clearly communicated

  • Written by Kate R Saunders, Lecturer, Queensland University of Technology

The extreme rain and flooding bombarding Australia’s east coast has inflicted a heavy toll on lives and livelihoods. This, however, could’ve been minimised if weather warning systems had been clearly translated into on-the-ground, local impacts for communities.

Early and detailed impact warnings can give people sufficient time to act. This should include continually updated predictions showing the spatial extent of flooding, timing, and the levels of uncertainty. All this should be easily accessible via a central hub of information.

Access to this sort of information depends on the council. Residents in Brisbane, where half a year’s worth of rain fell in three days[1], had only a PDF of a map showing the flood extent. It didn’t show the water’s depth, just whether there was predicted water – and a house submerged from floor to ceiling is very different from having some water on your front lawn.

Improved warnings are unlikely to protect houses, as there’s an inevitable loss of infrastructure that goes along with large catastrophic floods. However, it means people can prepare for floods. Possessions can be moved, vulnerable loved ones can be reached, and people can be evacuated in a timely manner - not in the middle of the night[2].

The huge clean up after the floods is underway in many towns across the east coast. AAP Image/Jason O'Brien

Weather warning vs impact warning

The Bureau of Meteorology issues warnings about extreme rainfall, river heights and possible floods. These are usually communicated on social media and in the news.

Individual councils translate these weather warnings into possible impacts for their communities, such as how high the floodwaters may rise and what infrastructure may be damaged.

Early weather warnings are often broad in location and time due to large uncertainties in the predictions, even with the best weather models and mathematical and statistical methods behind them. As the event draws nearer, forecasters can make better predictions with more certainty, with greater detail about the location and timing of the event.

Read more: 'One of the most extreme disasters in colonial Australian history': climate scientists on the floods and our future risk[3]

Impact warnings must evolve in the same way: broad at first, and becoming more targeted and specific with time. But the available warnings didn’t make the best use of information about the probability of flood water at different locations and times.

The map provided by the Brisbane City Council, for example, showed only one possible predicted scenario[4] for the flood extent at the maximum river height. This doesn’t show people when their place will go under, and many homes were inundated before maximum river height was reached.

The map also didn’t show the predicted water depth at given locations, and didn’t show any uncertainties in its predicted extent. This makes it harder for people to make decisions about how and when to act.

While there are many ways this map could be improved upon, many other councils in flood-affected areas didn’t even have this.

Making good decisions

Broad flood estimates for catchments aren’t always useful for individual action. To make effective decisions for your family and home:

  • Location matters: to act, it’s important to know if you’ll be cut off by flood waters

  • time matters: knowing your property is at risk of flooding in three days time offers different mitigation options than “likely to flood” in seven hours

  • uncertainty matters: people will act differently based on a one in 100 risk than a one in ten risk, and interpret descriptions[5] (such as “likely”) in different ways.

Indeed, research shows communicating forecast uncertainties and probabilities helps people make better decisions, increases trust in the forecast[6], and even improves compliance with warnings[7].

There’s also a much lower cost in taking action early. Of course, early warnings need to be balanced with false-alarms. Acting early is often done in the face of uncertainty, but waiting until the event is about to occur doesn’t give people enough time to act.

When events are low probability and high impact, it’s often better to err on the side of caution.

Read more: Why water inundates a home during one flood but spares it the next[8]

What needs to improve?

In Australia, different councils have different resources and funding for translating complex weather data into usable flood impact information. For most councils, this isn’t part of their day-to-day business, and they likely don’t have necessary expertise on-staff given how infrequent flood events of this magnitude are.

As climate change brings more frequent and intense natural disasters, improving weather impact warnings and the resources of councils is more urgent than ever.

As climate change brings more frequent and intense natural disasters, improving weather impact warnings and the resources of councils is more urgent than ever. AAP Image/Jono Searle

Drawing from the warning systems in place for bushfires is a good place to start. Australia has a highly localised warning system for bushfires[9], which includes: Monitor Conditions, Evacuate Now and Shelter in Place. Information about which roads are cut off are also widely communicated.

A similar tiered warning system linking weather and actions would have greatly helped residents make decisions. Low-lying areas with a moderate to high risk of flooding could then better understand how their flood or isolation risks were growing over time.

What’s more, information about where a flood can occur, its depth, when it will happen, and how likely at a given point in time and space needs to be visualised in an accessible way. This could include interactive, local maps showing the predictions and uncertainty in how the event will evolve.

Read more: Like many disasters in Australia, Aboriginal people are over-represented and under-resourced in the NSW floods[10]

Australia can also look to the United Kingdom Met Office, which focuses on impacts in their weather warnings[11]. It issues colour code warnings based on the impact and the likelihood of the event – for example, a code orange can be issued when an event either has a very high likelihood and a moderate impact, or a very high impact and a moderate likelihood.

Issuing timely, actionable warnings based on impacts isn’t easy. Spatial estimates of floods require advanced modelling techniques, especially when predicting in real time. Uncertainty is also a difficult concept to visualise and communicate, but there is ongoing research[12] to address this problem.

These challenges can’t be tackled in an ad hoc manner in the midst of a natural disaster. Data science, better data, and technology all offer solutions for this challenge, and must be an ongoing focus in the lead-up to future, inevitable floods.

References

  1. ^ fell in three days (www.abc.net.au)
  2. ^ the middle of the night (www.smh.com.au)
  3. ^ 'One of the most extreme disasters in colonial Australian history': climate scientists on the floods and our future risk (theconversation.com)
  4. ^ showed only one possible predicted scenario (www.brisbane.qld.gov.au)
  5. ^ interpret descriptions (link.springer.com)
  6. ^ make better decisions, increases trust in the forecast (psycnet.apa.org)
  7. ^ improves compliance with warnings (onlinelibrary.wiley.com)
  8. ^ Why water inundates a home during one flood but spares it the next (theconversation.com)
  9. ^ warning system for bushfires (www.bnhcrc.com.au)
  10. ^ Like many disasters in Australia, Aboriginal people are over-represented and under-resourced in the NSW floods (theconversation.com)
  11. ^ weather warnings (www.metoffice.gov.uk)
  12. ^ ongoing research (wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/people-couldve-prepared-for-the-floods-better-if-the-impacts-of-weather-forecasts-were-clearly-communicated-178309

Times Magazine

Building a Strong Online Presence with Katoomba Web Design

Katoomba web design is more than just creating a website that looks good—it’s about building an online presence that reflects your brand, engages your audience, and drives results. For local businesses in the Blue Mountains, a well-designed website a...

September Sunset Polo

International Polo Tour To Bridge Historic Sport, Life-Changing Philanthropy, and Breath-Taking Beauty On Saturday, September 6th, history will be made as the International Polo Tour (IPT), a sports leader headquartered here in South Florida...

5 Ways Microsoft Fabric Simplifies Your Data Analytics Workflow

In today's data-driven world, businesses are constantly seeking ways to streamline their data analytics processes. The sheer volume and complexity of data can be overwhelming, often leading to bottlenecks and inefficiencies. Enter the innovative da...

7 Questions to Ask Before You Sign IT Support Companies in Sydney

Choosing an IT partner can feel like buying an insurance policy you hope you never need. The right choice keeps your team productive, your data safe, and your budget predictable. The wrong choice shows up as slow tickets, surprise bills, and risky sh...

Choosing the Right Legal Aid Lawyer in Sutherland Shire: Key Considerations

Legal aid services play an essential role in ensuring access to justice for all. For people in the Sutherland Shire who may not have the financial means to pay for private legal assistance, legal aid ensures that everyone has access to representa...

Watercolor vs. Oil vs. Digital: Which Medium Fits Your Pet's Personality?

When it comes to immortalizing your pet’s unique personality in art, choosing the right medium is essential. Each artistic medium, whether watercolor, oil, or digital, has distinct qualities that can bring out the spirit of your furry friend in dif...

The Times Features

NSW has a new fashion sector strategy – but a sustainable industry needs a federally legislated response

The New South Wales government recently announced the launch of the NSW Fashion Sector Strategy, 2025–28[1]. The strategy, developed in partnership with the Australian Fashion ...

From Garden to Gift: Why Roses Make the Perfect Present

Think back to the last time you gave or received flowers. Chances are, roses were part of the bunch, or maybe they were the whole bunch.   Roses tend to leave an impression. Even ...

Do I have insomnia? 5 reasons why you might not

Even a single night of sleep trouble can feel distressing and lonely. You toss and turn, stare at the ceiling, and wonder how you’ll cope tomorrow. No wonder many people star...

Wedding Photography Trends You Need to Know (Before You Regret Your Album)

Your wedding album should be a timeless keepsake, not something you cringe at years later. Trends may come and go, but choosing the right wedding photography approach ensures your ...

Can you say no to your doctor using an AI scribe?

Doctors’ offices were once private. But increasingly, artificial intelligence (AI) scribes (also known as digital scribes) are listening in. These tools can record and trans...

There’s a new vaccine for pneumococcal disease in Australia. Here’s what to know

The Australian government announced last week there’s a new vaccine[1] for pneumococcal disease on the National Immunisation Program for all children. This vaccine replaces pr...