Australia

Mon Mar 3

Labor gains in Redbridge poll of marginal seats and seizes lead in a Morgan poll

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A poll of 20 marginal seats ^[1] by Redbridge and Accent Research was conducted for the News Ltd tabloids on February 20–25, from a sample presumably over 1,000. The Coalition led by 50.5–49.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the February 4–11 marginals poll.

Labor won the 2022 election by 52–48 and won the marginal seats polled by 51–49, implying a 1.5-point swing to the Coalition across these seats since the last election. If this poll were applied nationally, it suggests a Labor lead of 50.5–49.5.

Primary votes were 41% Coalition (down two), 34% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady) and 13% for all Others (up one). Anthony Albanese’s net favourability was up five points to -11 while Peter Dutton’s was down two to -13. By 50–33, voters thought things were headed in the wrong direction (55–27 previously).

While Labor improved overall in this poll, their position in the Victorian seats polled was dire, with an 8.4% two-party swing to the Coalition across the first two waves of this poll. State Labor is dragging down federal Labor.

Labor gains lead in Morgan poll

A national Morgan poll ^[2], conducted February 17–23 from a sample of 1,666, gave Labor a 51–49 lead by headline respondent preferences, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since the February 10–16 poll. This poll contrasted with the Resolve poll ^[3] taken February 18–23 that gave the Coalition a 55–45 lead.

Primary votes were 36.5% Coalition (down three), 31.5% Labor (up 3.5), 13.5% Greens (up one), 5% One Nation (down 0.5), 10% independents (steady) and 3.5% others (down one). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor led by 53–47, a four-point gain for Labor.

By 49.5–34.5, voters said the country was going in the wrong direction (52.5–32.5 previously). The 15-point lead for wrong was the lowest since January 2024. Morgan’s consumer confidence measure jumped ^[4] 4.7 points to 89.8.

The Morgan poll and the Redbridge marginal seats poll both suggest movement to Labor since the Reserve Bank reduced interest rates on February 18. While the Coalition retained a narrow lead in YouGov, the primary votes implied a little movement to Labor.

The graph below shows Labor’s two-party estimated vote in national polls, so the Redbridge marginals poll is excluded.

Labor Two Party Preferred Vote in national polls.

Labor has not recovered the lead in a polling average, but the latest polls are far better for them than the Resolve poll last week.

Coalition narrowly ahead in YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll ^[5], conducted February 21–27 from a sample of 1,501, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead by preference flows from YouGov’s MRP polls ^[6], in which Greens and One Nation preferences are both weaker for Labor than at the 2022 election. There was no change from YouGov’s last MRP poll ^[7], conducted from late January to mid-February.

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady since the MRP poll), 28% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (up one), 8% One Nation (down one), 1% for Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots, 10% independents (up one) and 2% others (down one). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about 50.5–49.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.

Albanese’s net approval was up three points since YouGov’s last non-MRP poll ^[8] in January to -12, with 52% dissatisfied and 40% satisfied. Dutton’s net approval was up four points to -2. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 42–40 (44–40 previously).

By 60–8, voters supported the government operating the Whyalla steelworks ^[9] through a publicly owned company if no suitable private investor was found.

Additional Resolve questions and seat polls

The Resolve poll for Nine newspapers asked whether Donald Trump’s policies should be applied to Australia ^[10]. Question wording has an impact: for example, “cutting waste from the public service” is a pro-Trump framing. A question that asked whether Australians approved or disapproved of Trump’s performance as US president would be preferable.

In past elections, seat polls have been unreliable. The Poll Bludger reported ^[11] last Wednesday that three polls of Western Australian federal seats had been conducted by JWS Research for Australian Energy Producers from a combined sample of 2,529.

In Curtin, held by teal independent Kate Chaney, the Liberals held a huge primary vote lead of 56–28 over Chaney. In Bullwinkel, a new federal WA seat that is notionally Labor, Labnr’s primary vote had slumped 21 points to 15%, putting them in third place behind the Nationals and Liberals. However, there were only modest primary vote swings in Tangney, with Labor looking competitive to hold.

There were also two uComms NSW federal seat polls. In Wentworth, held by teal independent Allegra Spender, Spender held a 57.2–42.8 lead over the Liberals. This poll was taken for Climate 200 on February 12 from a sample of 1,068. In Labor-held Gilmore, the Liberals led by 52.8–47.2. This poll was taken for the Australian Forest Products Association February 17–20 from a sample of 684.

NSW Resolve poll: Labor’s primary vote slumps

A New South Wales state Resolve poll ^[12] for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal January and February Resolve polls from a sample of over 1,000, gave the Coalition 38% of the primary vote (up one since December), Labor 29% (down four), the Greens 14% (up three), independents 11% (down two) and others 8% (up one).

No two-party estimate was reported, but The Poll Bludger estimated ^[13] a Coalition lead of about 51–49 from these primary votes. Labor incumbent Chris Minns led Liberal Mark Speakman by 35–14 as preferred premier (35–17 in December).

On the rail dispute between the NSW government and the train union, 43% wanted the government to negotiate a better deal with the union, 26% wanted the government to refuse the union’s demands and 16% thought they should agree to the union’s demands in full.

EMRS Tasmanian poll has little change

An EMRS Tasmanian state poll ^[14], conducted February 11–18 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 34% of the vote (down one since November), Labor 30% (down one), the Greens 13% (down one), the Jacqui Lambie Network 8% (up two), independents 12% (up one) and others 3% (steady). Tasmania uses a proportional system, so a two-party estimate is inapplicable.

Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s net favourability dropped five points to +10, while Labor leader Dean Winter was down eight to +6. Rockliff led Winter by 44–34 as preferred premier (43–37 in November).