Australia

Sun Feb 9

Liberals gain Prahran from Greens and Labor ahead in Werribee

Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Byelections occurred on Saturday in the Victorian state seats of Prahran and Werribee. The Liberals gained Prahran from the Greens ^[1] by a 51.6–48.4 margin, a 13.6% swing to the Liberals since the 2022 state election.

Primary votes were 36.2% Liberals (up 4.8%), 36.2% Greens (down 0.6%), 12.8% for independent Tony Lupton, the Labor member for Prahran from 2002 to 2010, and 5.3% for another independent. Labor did not contest after winning 26.8% in 2022.

The primary vote swings between the Greens and Liberals only explain 2.7% of the 13.6% two-candidate swing. In 2022, Labor preferences would have flowed strongly to the Greens, but at the byelection Lupton recommended preferences ^[2] to the Liberals on his how-to-vote material. The Greens’ share of overall preferences ^[3] plunged from nearly 80% in 2022 to 44%.

In Werribee ^[4], Labor leads the Liberals by 50.6–49.4, a 10.4% swing to the Liberals since 2022. Primary votes are 29.0% Liberals (up 3.7%), 28.7% Labor (down 16.7%), 14.7% for independent Paul Hopper (up 8.8%), 7.5% Greens (up 0.7%), 7.3% Victorian Socialists (up 3.7%), 5.5% Legalise Cannabis (new) and 4.4% Family First (up 1.9%).

Labor’s primary vote slumped in Werribee, but the Liberals were not the main beneficiary. There were just enough preferences from left-wing sources (Greens, Socialists and Legalise Cannabis) to put Labor over the line.

The large majority of outstanding votes at these byelections will be postals. In postals counted so far in Werribee ^[5], the Liberals lead by 53–47, and they will need to increase that margin on remaining postals to erase Labor’s current lead. But later postals are usually better for left-wing parties than earlier ones.

In Prahran, the Liberals lead the Greens on postals counted so far by 65–35. Later postals will probably be better for the Greens, but the Liberals will still win this byelection.

In Prahran, the Greens should have been able to overcome a shift against them on preferences with an improved primary vote. Losing this seat, which they have held since the 2014 state election, is a dismal result for the Greens.

Labor is likely to retain Werribee, but the slump in the Labor primary vote validates the recent Victorian Resolve poll ^[6] that had Labor’s statewide primary vote at just 22% and the Liberals in a clear election-winning position.

Since winning government at the November 2014 election, Labor has done nothing to reform the upper house electoral system. The upper house still uses group ticket voting (GTV), which is no longer used in any other Australian jurisdiction.

GTV was scrapped in New South Wales before the 2003 election, federally before 2016, in South Australia before 2018 and in Western Australia before this year’s March election. Other jurisdictions have never used GTV.

The artificially strong preference flows produced by GTV can allow parties with very low vote share to win seats through preference deals by overtaking parties with a much higher vote. In a system where voters direct their own preferences, this does not occur.

Analyst Kevin Bonham wrote on Friday ^[7] that the parliamentary Victorian Electoral Matters Committee had recommended scrapping GTV, but the government has delayed any response until after the Committee publishes its final report in December. By this time, it will be difficult to make changes so that they can be implemented for the November 2026 election.