Labor maintains clear lead in all polls and is likely to win election
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Labor leads by between 52–48 and 53–47 in four new national polls from Resolve, Essential, Morgan and DemosAU. While Labor’s vote slumped from a high 55.5–44.5 in Morgan to 53–47, such a slide hasn’t been seen in any other poll. Labor remains the likely winner of the election this Saturday.
A national Resolve poll[1] for Nine newspapers, conducted April 23–28 from a sample of 2,010 by online and telephone polling, gave Labor a 53–47 lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the mid-April Resolve poll[2]. Telephone polling by Resolve appears to only be used for their final polls before a federal election.
Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one), 8% independents (down four) and 5% others (steady). The 53–47 two-party result was achieved whether preferences were allocated as at the 2022 election or by respondents.
In this poll, Resolve is using seat-specific candidate lists, which Morgan and YouGov are now also doing. This resulted in a drop in the independent vote, as not all seats have viable independents.
Here is the graph of Labor’s two-party share in national polls. There was a 2.5-point drop for Labor in Morgan, but no other poll this week has had such a large change. Although Labor is slightly down, they are likely to win Saturday’s election. This graph does not include the DemosAU poll.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval in Resolve was steady at +1, with 45% saying he was doing a good job and 44% a poor job. Peter Dutton’s net approval slumped six points to -24. Albanese maintained a 47–31 lead over Dutton as preferred PM (46–30 previously).
The change in voting intentions and leaders’ ratings since the late February Resolve poll[3] is dramatic. The February poll had given the Coalition a 55–45 lead by respondent preferences. Albanese’s net approval was -22, Dutton’s was +5 and Dutton led Albanese as preferred PM by 39–35.
The Liberals led Labor on economic management[4] by 37–29 (36–31 previously). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 31–28 (tied at 30–30 previously).
Final Essential poll: Labor leads by 52.1–47.9
The Guardian reported Tuesday[5] that the final Essential poll, conducted April 23–27 from a sample of 2,241 gave Labor a 52.1–47.9 lead by respondent preferences with undecided removed, from primary votes of 34% Coalition, 32% Labor, 13% Greens, 10% One Nation, 2% Trumpet of Patriots and 9% for all Others,
In Essential’s usual methods[6] that include undecided, Labor led by 49.6–45.6 (50–45 in mid-April). Primary votes were 32% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (down one), 9% One Nation (steady), 2% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 9% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (up one). By 2022 election flows, Labor would lead by about 52.5–47.5.
Albanese’s net approval was steady at -3, with 47% disapproving and 44% approving. Dutton’s net approval dropped three points to -12, a record low for him in this poll. By 52–31, voters thought Australia was on the wrong track (50–33 previously).
A total of 81% rated cost of living[7] one of the top three most important issues, including 49% who rated it the top issue. By 68–32, voters did not think the elected government would make a meaningful difference on cost of living.
Morgan poll: Labor drops to a 53–47 lead
A national Morgan poll[8], conducted April 21–27 from a sample of 1,524, gave Labor a 53–47 lead by headline respondent preferences, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since the April 14–20 Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 34.5% Coalition (up 0.5), 34% Labor (down 0.5), 13% Greens (down 1.5), 7.5% One Nation (up 1.5), 1.5% Trumpet of Patriots (up one), 2% teal independents and 7.5% for all Others. By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 54–46, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition.
By 52.5–34, voters thought the country was going in the wrong direction (48–34 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index[9] was down 2.1 points to 83.4, its lowest for more than six months.
DemosAU poll 52–48 to Labor with low major party primary votes
A national DemosAU poll[10], conducted April 22–23 from a sample of 1,073, gave Labor a 52–48 lead after a forced choice question for the 14% who were initially undecided.
Primary votes after forcing were 31% Coalition, 29% Labor, 14% Greens, 9% One Nation, 7% independents and 10% others. DemosAU used seat-specific polls, reading the candidate list as it appears on the ballot paper. Other pollsters get higher primary votes for the major parties as those parties are listed first on seat-specific polls.
Albanese led Dutton by 43–34 as preferred PM.
DemosAU poll of outer metro Brisbane seats
DemosAU collectively polled[11] the five seats of Longman, Dickson, Petrie, Bonner and Forde on April 18–23 from a sample of 1,053 for The Financial Review. The Liberal National Party led Labor by 53–47 (53.4–46.6 to the LNP across these five seats at the 2022 election).
Primary votes were 40% LNP, 27% Labor, 13% Greens, 7% One Nation, 2% Trumpet of Patriots and 11% for all Others.
References
- ^ Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ late February Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ economic management (www.smh.com.au)
- ^ Guardian reported Tuesday (www.theguardian.com)
- ^ Essential’s usual methods (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ rated cost of living (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ consumer confidence index (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ DemosAU poll (demosau.com)
- ^ collectively polled (www.afr.com)
