Poland’s presidential election runoff will be a bitter pill for pro-European Union democrats to swallow.

The nationalist, Trumpian, historian Karol Nawrocki has narrowly defeated^[1] the liberal, pro-EU mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, 50.89 to 49.11%^[2].

The Polish president has few executive powers, though the office holder is able to veto legislation. This means the consequences of a Nawrocki victory will be felt keenly, both in Poland and across Europe.

With this power, Nawrocki, backed by the conservative Law and Justice party, will no doubt stymie the ability of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform-led coalition to enact democratic political reforms.

This legislative gridlock could well see Law and Justice return to government in the 2027 general elections, which would lock in the anti-democratic changes^[3] the party made during their last term in office from 2015–2023. This included eroding Poland’s judicial independence^[4] by effectively taking control of judicial appointments and the supreme court.

Nawrocki’s win has given pro-Donald Trump, anti-liberal, anti-EU forces across the continent a shot in the arm. It’s bad news for the EU, Ukraine and women.

A rising Poland

For much of the post-second world war era, Poland has had limited European influence.

This is no longer the case. Poland’s economy has boomed since it joined the EU in 2004. It spends almost 5%^[5] of its gross domestic product on defence, almost double what it spent in 2022 at the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Poland now has a bigger army^[6] than the United Kingdom, France and Germany. And living standards, adjusted for purchasing power, are about to eclipse Japan’s.

Along with Brexit, these changes have resulted in the EU’s centre of gravity shifting eastwards towards Poland. As a rising military and economic power of 37 million people, what happens in Poland will help shape Europe’s future.

Impacts on Ukraine

Poland’s new position in Europe is most clearly demonstrated by its central role in the fight to defend Ukraine against Russia.

This centrality was clearly demonstrated during the recent “Coalition of the Willing” summit in Kyiv, where Tusk joined^[7] the leaders of Europe’s major powers – France, Germany and the UK – to bolster support for Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

However, Poland’s unqualified support for Ukraine will now be at risk because Nawrocki has demonised Ukrainian refugees^[8] in his country and opposed Ukrainian integration into European-oriented bodies, such as the EU and NATO^[9].

Nawrocki was also backed^[10] during his campaign by the Trump administration. Kristi Noem, the US secretary of homeland security, said^[11] at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference in Poland:

Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol if you make him the leader of this country.

Trump also hosted^[12] Nawrocki in the Oval Office when he was merely a candidate for office. This was a significant deviation from standard US diplomatic protocol to stay out of foreign elections.

Nawrocki has not been as pro-Russia as some other global, MAGA-style politicians, but this is largely due to Poland’s geography and its difficult history with Russia. It has been repeatedly invaded across its eastern plains by Russian or Soviet troops. And along with Ukraine, Poland shares borders with the Russian client state of Belarus and Russia itself in Kaliningrad, the heavily militarised enclave on the Baltic Sea.

I experienced the proximity of these borders during fieldwork in Poland in 2023 when I travelled by car from Warsaw to Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, via the Suwalki Gap^[13].

This is the strategically important, 100-kilometre-long border between Poland and Lithuania^[14], which connects the Baltic states to the rest of NATO and the EU to the south. It’s seen as a potential flashpoint if Russia were ever to close the gap and isolate the Baltic states.

Poland’s conservative nationalist politicians are therefore less Russia-friendly than those in Hungary or Slovakia. Nawrocki, for instance, does not support^[15] cutting off weapons to Ukraine.

However, a Nawrocki presidency will still be more hostile to Ukraine and its interests. During the campaign, Nawrocki said^[16] Zelensky “treats Poland badly”, echoing the type of language used by Trump himself.

Supporters of Karol Nawrocki hold a banner featuring a picture of the Oval Office meeting between US President Donald Trump and Nawrocki. Jarek Praszkiewicz/PAP/EPA

Poland divided

The high stakes in the election resulted in a record turnout^[17] of almost 73%.

There was a stark choice in the election between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski^[18].

Trzaskowski supported the liberalisation of Poland’s harsh abortion laws – abortion was effectively banned in Poland^[19] under the Law and Justice government – and the introduction of civil partnerships for LGBTQ+ couples.

Rafal Trzaskowski and his wife Malgorzata Trzaskowska meet with local residents in Gdansk, Poland, towards the end of the campaign. Andrzej Jackowski/PAP/EPA

Nawrocki opposed these changes and will likely veto any attempt to implement them.

While the polls for the presidential runoff election had consistently shown a tight race, an Ipsos exit poll^[20] published during the vote count demonstrated the social divisions now facing the country.

As in other recent global elections, women and those with higher formal education voted for the progressive candidate (Trzaskowski), while men and those with less formal education voted for the conservative (Nawrocki).

After the surprise success of the liberal, pro-EU presidential candidate^[21] in the Romanian elections a fortnight ago, pro-EU forces were hoping for a similar result in Poland, as well.

That, for now, is a pipe dream and liberals across the continent will now need to negotiate a difficult relationship with a right-wing, Trumpian leader in the new beating heart of Europe.

References

1. ^{^} defeated (www.theguardian.com)
2. ^{^} 50.89 to 49.11% (polandelects.com)
3. ^{^} anti-democratic changes (www.reuters.com)
4. ^{^} eroding Poland’s judicial independence (www.theguardian.com)
5. ^{^} almost 5% (www.nato.int)
6. ^{^} bigger army (www.economist.com)
7. ^{^} joined (www.lemonde.fr)
8. ^{^} Ukrainian refugees (notesfrompoland.com)
9. ^{^} NATO (notesfrompoland.com)
10. ^{^} backed (www.nytimes.com)
11. ^{^} said (abcnews.go.com)
12. ^{^} hosted (x.com)
13. ^{^} Suwalki Gap (www.aspistrategist.org.au)
14. ^{^} Lithuania (www.lowyinstitute.org)
15. ^{^} does not support (www.nytimes.com)
16. ^{^} said (kyivindependent.com)
17. ^{^} record turnout (www.theguardian.com)
18. ^{^} Trzaskowski (www.theguardian.com)
19. ^{^} banned in Poland (www.nytimes.com)
20. ^{^} Ipsos exit poll (www.theguardian.com)
21. ^{^} presidential candidate (www.france24.com)