Few political parties in Australia have generated as much controversy, resilience, and longevity as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Emerging during a period of economic uncertainty and social change, the party has become one of the country’s most recognisable minor political forces — often underestimated, regularly written off, but persistently capable of shaping national conversations. As Australia approaches another federal election, One Nation is once again positioned to draw meaningful support, particularly from voters frustrated with the status quo.

This article traces the history of One Nation, its ideological evolution, and the factors driving its potential appeal in the next election.

Origins: A Rebellion Against the Political Establishment (1996–1998)

Pauline Hanson first came to prominence in 1996 when she was disendorsed by the Liberal Party over her outspoken comments on Indigenous welfare. Running as an independent for the federal seat of Oxley, she won decisively, claiming a safe Labor seat and giving voice to a largely unheard demographic: working-class Australians feeling ignored by major parties.

In 1997, Hanson, together with David Oldfield and David Ettridge, founded One Nation. The party’s early message centred heavily on:

• Opposition to multiculturalism as government policy

• Restriction of immigration

• Protectionist economic policies to help Australian workers

• Tougher stance on law and order

• Rejection of political correctness and elite decision-making

These views were divisive but resonated strongly in regional and outer-suburban communities experiencing economic transition, manufacturing decline, and demographic change.

In the 1998 Queensland state election, One Nation captured 22.7% of the vote — a stunning result for a new party — and won 11 seats, sending shockwaves through the political class. But internal disputes, legal battles and structural weaknesses soon destabilised the party.

Collapse and Rebirth (1999–2010)

By 1999, leadership struggles and branching splinter groups diluted One Nation’s influence. Hanson faced legal challenges, and the party suffered from poor organisational cohesion. Throughout the 2000s, One Nation largely faded from mainstream relevance, overshadowed by an ascendant Greens on the left and a more unified Coalition on the right.

But discontent in the electorate persisted. Issues such as:

• The perceived neglect of regional Australia

• Increasing cost-of-living pressures

• Growing cultural debates over immigration and national identity

• Rising scepticism toward globalisation and free-trade policies

left an opening for Hanson’s brand of populism to eventually resurface.

A Third Act: The Return of Pauline Hanson (2013–2016)

Pauline Hanson officially returned to lead One Nation ahead of the 2016 federal election, capitalising on political fatigue with both major parties and growing distrust of institutions. The party’s campaign focused on:

• Opposition to Muslim immigration

• Criticism of Australia’s energy policies

• Support for farmers and anti-bank sentiment

• Advocacy for lower power prices

• Strong stances on law, order, and border protection

The result was a resurgence: One Nation won four Senate seats, demonstrating that Hanson’s message still resonated deeply — particularly in Queensland.

Consolidation and Influence (2016–2022)

Between 2016 and 2022, One Nation became a semi-permanent presence in the Senate. Though often criticised, the party succeeded in influencing national debates on:

• Immigration levels

• Renewable energy policies

• Water rights and rural development

• Foreign influence, particularly regarding China

• COVID-19 restrictions and vaccine mandates

Despite occasional internal turmoil and fluctuating polling, Hanson’s personal brand remained strong. Many sympathisers viewed her as consistent, authentic, and unfiltered in a way they believed mainstream politicians were not.

The 2022 federal election again saw One Nation hold its Senate ground, particularly in Queensland, reaffirming its position as a key minor party.

Why One Nation Will Appeal at the Next Election

As Australia heads toward its next federal election, the political climate is lining up in ways that could boost One Nation’s vote. The following factors help explain why.

1. Dissatisfaction With the Major Parties

A substantial portion of the electorate perceives Labor and the Coalition as increasingly similar on issues such as:

• Net-zero climate policy

• Immigration levels

• Housing affordability

• Cost-of-living responses

One Nation, by contrast, offers clear — sometimes stark — alternatives. For voters who believe that mainstream parties have drifted away from everyday concerns, Hanson’s straightforward rhetoric offers the simplicity and certainty they crave.

2. Deepening Cost-of-Living Anxiety

While inflation and interest rates remain top-tier concerns, many voters feel neither major party has provided effective relief. Energy prices, grocery bills, fuel costs, and rental pressures disproportionately impact regional and outer-suburban voters — One Nation’s natural base.

The party’s message of prioritising Australians over global markets, reducing “bureaucratic waste,” and backing local industry has renewed relevance.

3. Immigration and Social Cohesion Debates

Immigration levels are rising again, and concerns about infrastructure pressure — housing, hospitals, and transit — have become mainstream. What once were fringe topics are now widely discussed across the political spectrum.

One Nation’s long-standing scepticism about high immigration gives the party a form of “I told you so” credibility among certain voters who feel their communities have changed too quickly.

4. Rural and Regional Discontent

The Nationals have struggled to maintain trust in some rural seats, partly due to:

• Water policy disputes

• Coal and energy transitions

• Farming sector uncertainty

• Perceived Canberra elitism

One Nation speaks directly to these frustrations with policies framed around sovereignty, self-sufficiency and defending rural lifestyle choices.

5. A Strong Personal Brand in Pauline Hanson

Love her or hate her, Pauline Hanson is one of Australia’s most recognisable political figures. For many, she represents:

• Authenticity

• Persistence

• “Ordinary Australian” values

Her longevity adds weight: voters feel she genuinely believes what she says, and has stuck to her core values for nearly 30 years.

In an era when many see politicians as scripted or insincere, Hanson’s blunt, unscripted style is refreshing to those who see political correctness as stifling.

6. Growing Distrust of Institutions

Public trust in media, government bureaucracy, universities, banks, and big corporations continues to decline. One Nation’s outsider positioning aligns perfectly with this sentiment.

The party’s anti-establishment narrative — once marginal — now sits squarely within a global trend that has lifted similar populist movements in Europe, Asia and the US.

7. Senate Voting Dynamics

Even if One Nation does not win lower-house seats, its Senate prospects remain strong. The party is likely to attract:

• Protest votes

• Anti-major-party sentiment

• Preferences from minor conservative parties

• Long-term supporters in Queensland and parts of NSW/WA

Given proportional voting, even a modest swing could secure additional Senate positions.

Challenges Ahead

Despite its strengths, One Nation faces obstacles:

• Internal party stability is always a concern

• The Coalition may sharpen its conservative messaging to reclaim lost votes

• Hanson’s polarising reputation limits appeal in major cities

• Younger voters tend to lean towards Greens or independents

The party’s ceiling may be higher than before, but it still faces a natural demographic limit.

Conclusion: A Persistent, Underestimated Political Force

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has survived legal challenges, internal splits, public criticism, and shifting social landscapes. Yet the party continues to reappear whenever Australians feel unheard or left behind.

Its combination of economic populism, cultural conservatism, and anti-establishment messaging places it in a strong position for the next federal election — especially as frustration with rising costs, immigration debates, and political sameness intensifies.

Whether One Nation expands its influence or simply reinforces its Senate foothold, its relevance in Australian politics is indisputable. As long as voters seek a voice that sharply contrasts with the major parties, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will remain an important — and potentially growing — part of the national conversation.