A week out from the resumption of parliament, the federal opposition is in a state of paralysis.

The Liberals have a full-blown leadership crisis. A majority of the party believe Sussan Ley can’t survive for long.

But leadership contenders Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie, both from the right of the party, don’t want to run against each other, dividing their factional support. They’re in a wrestle, each wanting the other to pull back.

Taylor trails his coat while keeping formally within the rules. He won’t confirm he is after Ley’s job, pleading shadow cabinet discipline when pressed. But he won’t rule anything out either.

The Hastie camp had a story in The Australian saying he had discussed with his wife the implications of becoming leader, and she was “fully supportive”. This was to clear away Hastie’s position of some time ago that he was not pitching for leadership for a while because of having a young family.

Hastie seems raring to go, Taylor is preferring to delay. Moderates argue the Nationals should not be rewarded for last week’s behaviour by the Liberals rushing into a change.

The stand-off lessens the chance of a vote next week, though the situation is febrile and so it is not impossible it comes to a head then. The Liberal Party will have its regular meeting on Tuesday morning.

Many in the Liberals and some in the Nationals think the most urgent issue is to have the split in the former Coalition repaired.

But Nationals leader David Littleproud says this won’t happen unless the three Nationals frontbenchers whom Ley forced to resign last week (after they broke shadow cabinet solidity over the government’s anti-hate legislation) are reinstated. Ley has refused to contemplate meeting that condition.

Liberals continue to lash out at Littleproud’s behaviour last week, leading to the fracture. Victorian Liberal Tim Wilson told Sky on Tuesday the Nationals leader “basically replicated the political consequences of Barnaby Joyce on a Braddon pavement [when an intoxicated Joyce was pictured lying flat out talking on the phone]. They’ve hit a flat. It hasn’t worked. What we need is leadership. We need responsible people standing up for the national interest and doing what’s right by Australia and Australians.”

Meanwhile Ley needs to reshuffle her frontbench by the time parliament resumes next week, to fill the positions vacated by the Nationals. She has stayed her hand to give some time for a possible rethink by the Nationals about re-forming the Coalition. But it would be odd to go into the sitting with multiple vacancies, and especially difficult when Senate estimates hearings loom the following week.

Littleproud has yet to nominate spokespeople for a “shadow” shadow ministry. Once he does that, it becomes harder to get the Coalition back together, even under a new Liberal leader.

On Thursday many Liberals will gather in Melbourne for a memorial service for Katie Allen, who was Liberal MP for Higgins in 2019–22. It’s a sad reality that during leadership crises, such gatherings can provide the opportunity for very political conversations. This occasion is likely to be no exception.