As federal parliament began its last sitting week for 2025, those around Sussan Ley were confident her fragile leadership would survive into next year. There was no sign there’d be a challenge on Tuesday morning, when the last Liberal Party meeting for the year was scheduled (although the cautious always hedge their bets).

This was despite Sunday’s Newspoll, showing Labor with a two party lead of 58-42, and the Coalition on 24%.

The poll holds clues about why Ley is likely to survive the year, as well as to just how difficult the road ahead is for her.

When people were asked who they preferred as opposition leader, Ley was on 21%, Andrew Hastie 15%, Angus Taylor 9%, Tim Wilson 6%, and Ted O'Brien (who is deputy) on 3%, A massive 46% were in the “don’t know”) category.

The poll suggests that noise matters. One of Ley’s key tactics has been to fill as much of the media space as she can. Last week, after the Coalition’s controversial decision to dump net zero, Ley had more than 40 media appearances. She has extraordinary stamina.

All this activity hasn’t yet got her widely known, but it has kept her name in the news to an extent (although on a couple of occasions to her detriment, when she has made mistakes).

Hastie has also had a noisy presence, with his actions (quitting the frontbench), statements and social media posts (about immigration, manufacturing), attracting plenty of attention to his leadership ambitions.

By contrast, Taylor, the other leadership aspirant – and until recently seen as the main alternative – has been relatively quiet. Taylor calculated his best strategy was to be seen as not undermining Ley. He may be starting to wonder about this in light of the Newspoll.

The big 46% slice of voters without a view about a preferred opposition leader carries a message for Ley and the aspirants.

Overwhelmingly, those in the Canberra bubble don’t believe Ley will last in the medium term. But she lives from week to week, and to extend her leadership as long as possible she has to eat into that 46%, in a positive way, and to keep as wide a gap as possible between herself and her nearest contender.

Hastie is the show pony candidate who, as outlined by journalist Niki Savva, in her book Earthquake, released on Monday, has a plan. Of sorts.

Savva writes: “Hastie told me he wants to restore the Menzian big tent in a way that energises people under the age of 40. ‘We are very old as a party,’ he said, referring to the Liberals’ present membership and constituency, then warned that, without change, ‘we should expect to become extinct at some point’.

"In a world where every word and image matters, he is aware that he needs to use the higher profile won from his social media posts not just to consolidate the base, but to reclaim as much as possible of that which has been lost.

"Hastie’s first mission was to stop the drift of Liberals to One Nation and to arrest the fracturing of the right in Australia as it threatens to mimic events in the rest of the world, springing from Trumpism. His second is to mould a philosophy and an agenda that resonates with the culturally, socially, and politically diverse constituency that makes up mainstream Australia.

"Avoiding culture wars, concentrating on restoring the Liberals’ reputation on tax and economic management, and forging a credible plan to reduce emissions would help with that,” Savva writes.

“Again, Hastie has the potential to be a serious contender in a campaign contest, but only if he moves closer to the centre. He doesn’t have to be Labor lite, and he should certainly not be One Nation lite. He needs to remember that he is running to be prime minister of Australia, not to succeed Trump,” she says.

Bringing back a Menzian “big tent”, and attracting younger people to vote for the Liberals, let alone to join the party – all that is enormously ambitious. As is his plan to first win voters on the right, and then construct an agenda for the “mainstream” (wherever exactly that is, in political terms).

Hastie, who had shoulder surgery last week, was not in parliament on Monday. He was flying to Canberra and will be at Tuesday’s party meeting. He may not be challenging, but his colleagues’ eyes will be trained on him – this former SAS commander whom some are talking up as the Liberals’ next big thing.