The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

why we must vaccinate children aged 12 and over now

  • Written by Emma McBryde, Professor of Infectious Disease and Epidemiology, James Cook University

People aged 16 and above[1] will soon be able to get a COVID vaccine in Australia, but this begs the question: what about children in younger age groups?

Currently, only 12-15 year olds with underlying medical conditions, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children, and those living in remote communities are eligible[2].

Modelling[3] by the Doherty Institute has suggested vaccinating 12-15 year olds would not make a material difference to the COVID epidemic.

However, as a researcher with expertise on modelling infectious diseases, it’s my view children aged 12 and over must be vaccinated with high priority.

Read more: We may need to vaccinate children as young as 5 to reach herd immunity with Delta, our modelling shows[4]

Children and transmission

A key concept you might have heard about is the reproduction number — the number of new cases per infectious case. For the Delta strain, this number could be as high as nine[5]. In other words, if there were no lockdowns or other controls in place, each Delta infection could theoretically lead to as many as nine new infections.

The “effective reproduction number” is how many new cases you get per infectious case after public health measures such as lockdowns have been applied.

The Doherty modelling used a baseline effective reproduction number of 3.6 but acknowledges the effective reproduction number will be different from state to state. It can also change over time.

The effective reproduction numbers in NSW and Victoria are currently under two — but this figure could rise when lockdowns lift.

Modelling[6] by colleagues and I shows that once the value of the effective reproduction number creeps up above four, all else being equal, children including those younger than 16 start to feature highly in transmission.

In other words, we need to vaccinate children aged 12 and above now, in preparation for a scenario when the effective reproduction number is much higher than it has been under lockdowns.

A reality check

In a scenario where children aged 12 and above are returning to school and moving around the community unvaccinated, could masks and social distancing be enough?

Well, perhaps in an ideal world. But many simply assume children will be able to socially distance and wear masks just like adults do. Parents may wish to reflect on that.

We also need to compare old assumptions about COVID and children with what we are now seeing in reality.

The original strain of COVID-19 appeared to spare children; they were less likely than older people to be infected in the first place. The Delta strain seems to have changed[7] all that.

According to NSW Health[8]’s factsheet on coronavirus disease in NSW, only one person under 20 has died due to COVID. However, people in this age group are showing up significantly in overall case numbers.

Since NSW began its current lockdown, about one third of new COVID[9] cases in NSW (around 3,000) have been in under 20 year olds.

why we must vaccinate children aged 12 and over now According to NSW Health, only one person under 20 has died due to COVID but people in this age group are showing up significantly in overall case numbers. NSW Health[10]

Victoria’s chief health officer has also noted childcare centres and schools feature heavily among the hotspots in that state[11].

If Delta does end up infecting children more than the original strain did, children may become the super-spreaders of the Delta variant — just as they are key transmitters of influenza, pertussis, measles, chicken pox and just about every respiratory virus.

Now, some expert groups — including modellers[12] — are starting to call for younger children to be vaccinated with high priority.

Read more: Should we vaccinate children against COVID-19? We asked 5 experts[13]

Which vaccine? While Pfizer is scarce, we should direct it to younger people

While Pfizer is scarce, we should be providing Pfizer to the younger population (who are more likely[14] to transmit COVID-19[15]), while giving AstraZeneca to older people.

While both vaccines are over 90% effective at reducing death and severe outcomes from COVID (including Delta), Pfizer is better than AstraZeneca at reducing transmission[16] of the virus.

In Australia, children 12-17 are approved to receive Pfizer but not AstraZeneca.

What are the consequences of not vaccinating younger children?

The risks of not vaccinating children in the 12+ age group include:

  • more children becoming sick with COVID

  • denying children potential freedoms that may come with vaccination, such as returning to school, travel or avoiding strict lockdowns

  • not vaccinating children means living with the knowledge we haven’t done everything possible to ensure they don’t transmit COVID to more vulnerable people.

It’s unlikely Australia will achieve herd immunity to COVID this year.

But even without herd immunity, every little bit helps — and the growing number of cases in younger children suggests we need to vaccinate this group sooner, rather than later.

References

  1. ^ aged 16 and above (www.health.gov.au)
  2. ^ eligible (www.health.gov.au)
  3. ^ Modelling (www.doherty.edu.au)
  4. ^ We may need to vaccinate children as young as 5 to reach herd immunity with Delta, our modelling shows (theconversation.com)
  5. ^ as high as nine (www.theguardian.com)
  6. ^ Modelling (theconversation.com)
  7. ^ changed (theconversation.com)
  8. ^ NSW Health (www.nsw.gov.au)
  9. ^ about one third of new COVID (data.nsw.gov.au)
  10. ^ NSW Health (www.nsw.gov.au)
  11. ^ among the hotspots in that state (www.dhhs.vic.gov.au)
  12. ^ including modellers (www.theaustralian.com.au)
  13. ^ Should we vaccinate children against COVID-19? We asked 5 experts (theconversation.com)
  14. ^ more likely (www.doherty.edu.au)
  15. ^ transmit COVID-19 (theconversation.com)
  16. ^ Pfizer is better than AstraZeneca at reducing transmission (www.nejm.org)

Read more https://theconversation.com/high-priority-why-we-must-vaccinate-children-aged-12-and-over-now-166425

Times Magazine

Building a Strong Online Presence with Katoomba Web Design

Katoomba web design is more than just creating a website that looks good—it’s about building an online presence that reflects your brand, engages your audience, and drives results. For local businesses in the Blue Mountains, a well-designed website a...

September Sunset Polo

International Polo Tour To Bridge Historic Sport, Life-Changing Philanthropy, and Breath-Taking Beauty On Saturday, September 6th, history will be made as the International Polo Tour (IPT), a sports leader headquartered here in South Florida...

5 Ways Microsoft Fabric Simplifies Your Data Analytics Workflow

In today's data-driven world, businesses are constantly seeking ways to streamline their data analytics processes. The sheer volume and complexity of data can be overwhelming, often leading to bottlenecks and inefficiencies. Enter the innovative da...

7 Questions to Ask Before You Sign IT Support Companies in Sydney

Choosing an IT partner can feel like buying an insurance policy you hope you never need. The right choice keeps your team productive, your data safe, and your budget predictable. The wrong choice shows up as slow tickets, surprise bills, and risky sh...

Choosing the Right Legal Aid Lawyer in Sutherland Shire: Key Considerations

Legal aid services play an essential role in ensuring access to justice for all. For people in the Sutherland Shire who may not have the financial means to pay for private legal assistance, legal aid ensures that everyone has access to representa...

Watercolor vs. Oil vs. Digital: Which Medium Fits Your Pet's Personality?

When it comes to immortalizing your pet’s unique personality in art, choosing the right medium is essential. Each artistic medium, whether watercolor, oil, or digital, has distinct qualities that can bring out the spirit of your furry friend in dif...

The Times Features

NSW has a new fashion sector strategy – but a sustainable industry needs a federally legislated response

The New South Wales government recently announced the launch of the NSW Fashion Sector Strategy, 2025–28[1]. The strategy, developed in partnership with the Australian Fashion ...

From Garden to Gift: Why Roses Make the Perfect Present

Think back to the last time you gave or received flowers. Chances are, roses were part of the bunch, or maybe they were the whole bunch.   Roses tend to leave an impression. Even ...

Do I have insomnia? 5 reasons why you might not

Even a single night of sleep trouble can feel distressing and lonely. You toss and turn, stare at the ceiling, and wonder how you’ll cope tomorrow. No wonder many people star...

Wedding Photography Trends You Need to Know (Before You Regret Your Album)

Your wedding album should be a timeless keepsake, not something you cringe at years later. Trends may come and go, but choosing the right wedding photography approach ensures your ...

Can you say no to your doctor using an AI scribe?

Doctors’ offices were once private. But increasingly, artificial intelligence (AI) scribes (also known as digital scribes) are listening in. These tools can record and trans...

There’s a new vaccine for pneumococcal disease in Australia. Here’s what to know

The Australian government announced last week there’s a new vaccine[1] for pneumococcal disease on the National Immunisation Program for all children. This vaccine replaces pr...