Barnaby Joyce is doing again what he does best – disrupting

As Nationals MP Michael McCormack puts it, “he likes to be in charge, leading, in control”.

Taking into account his character, temperament and circumstances, it is unsurprising Joyce is kicking the Nationals in the shins, stepping out of their party room, and keeping people guessing whether his flirtation with One Nation will turn into a marriage.

Joyce has had two turns at being Nationals leader. Now he is on the backbench, after being confined at the last election to campaigning only in his electorate. He’s angry and upset; he is an open enemy of current leader David Littleproud but hasn’t the clout to replace him.

Joyce invariably lets his emotions hang out, and so it was in his weekend statement to party members, which came after a leak that he was in “advanced talks” to defect to One Nation. The leak caught him on the hop (despite earlier rumours), and the Nationals as well.

“My relationship with the leadership of the Nationals in Canberra has unfortunately, like a sadness in some marriages, irretrievably broken down,” he wrote.

He complained of being off the frontbench, “moved on for ‘generational change’” and “seated in the far corner of the [House of Representatives] chamber”.

“I am seen and now turning into a discordant note. This is not who I want to be”, he said. This overlooks the fact his circumstances in part reflect his own behaviour – he has indeed been a discordant note.

Joyce also pointed to “our position in continuing to support net zero”, with the damage he alleges that causes, “which makes continuing in the Nationals Party Room under this policy untenable”.

That sounds somewhat disingenuous, given the Nationals are reviewing the net zero policy and the signs are they are expected to drop it.

Joyce announced he will not recontest his New England seat but will stay in it until the election. He won’t sit in the Nationals party room, nor, it seems, attend Nationals events – he has pulled out of one he was scheduled for this week.

And then the tease. “I am free now to consider all options as to what I do next.”

Joyce is known to have been having talks with Pauline Hanson for some time, but hasn’t confirmed he will join her.

Hanson has said he’d be welcome and that “he’s more aligned with One Nation than what he is with the National Party”.

Nationals leader David Littleproud has appealed, no doubt through gritted teeth, for Joyce to stay. The departure of Joyce would be the second defection since the election – Jacinta Nampijinpa Price went off to the Liberals. Littleproud can’t be confident of his position and internal disruptions weaken it further. He needs to settle the net zero issue pronto.

Nationals senator Matt Canavan, a close ally of Joyce over the years, said on Sunday he did not want to see him go from the party. “We should do everything we can to keep him as part of our team.”

Canavan said he was “disappointed our former leaders’ skills and experience haven’t been used in a frontbench role or by other means”, and “I’d encourage the leadership to do that”.

In Joyce’s electorate about a dozen Nationals branch members have jumped to One Nation.

More generally, some Nationals sources say there is much discontent in their base, with criticism of Opposition Leader Sussan Ley and people feeling the Coalition is too focused on the cities and trying to win back Teal areas. The frustration was easier to keep in check when Peter Dutton was leader but has broken out under Ley, who has less authority, and with the current soul-searching within the Liberals.

One scenario that’s being canvassed is that if Joyce, 58, joins One Nation, he could succeed the 71-year-old Hanson as leader at some point. (Hanson’s current Senate term expires in 2028.) If he took this course, he could sit as a One Nation lower house member for the rest of this term and then run for the Senate.

There’d be no guarantee such a transition wouldn’t end in tears. Joyce has a strong reputation as a retail politician, but that has been somewhat tarnished in recent years. One Nation is full of many difficult people and is very much tied to Hanson personally. Joyce might not find himself such a good fit.

One Nation’s vote has surged post election, but will it soon peak? While there is support for it on the right and in the regions (and it doubled its Senate representation in May), remember that the Nationals held their own at the election. Many of their voters see their representatives as effective local members.

And then there is the question of how Hanson and Joyce would get on while he was serving his apprenticeship. McCormack (who’s had an up-and-down relationship with Joyce) wonders if it could be like Trump and Musk 2.0. With their volatile personalities, “who’d know whether that would work?”