Labor likely to gain 5 senators, cementing the left’s Senate dominance

I previously wrote about the Senate^[1] the morning after the election. About half the Senate is elected at each House of Representatives election. Those up for election include six senators out of 12 for every state and all four territory senators. So 40 of the 76 senators^[2] were up for election.

State senators elected at this election will start their six-year terms on July 1, while territory senators are tied to the term of the lower house.

At a double dissolution election, all senators are up for election, and this truncates the terms of senators. With Labor and the Greens so dominant at this election, the Coalition may try a double dissolution if they win the next election.

Senators are elected by proportional representation in their jurisdictions with preferences. At a half-Senate election, with six senators in each state up for election, a quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. For the territories, a quota is one-third or 33.3%. Half a quota on primary votes (7.1% in a state) is usually enough to give a party a reasonable chance of election.

It’s likely to take at least another three weeks to get final Senate results. All votes need to be data entered into a computer system, then a button is pressed to electronically distribute preferences. It’s only after this button press that we know final outcomes and margins.

At the 2019 election (the last time these state senators were up for election), the Coaliition won 17 of the 36 state senators, Labor 11, the Greens six, One Nation one and Jacqui Lambie one. The right won by 18–17, with one for Lambie.

Queensland’s senators split 4–2 to the right, Tasmania 3–2 to the left with one for Lambie and the other states were tied at 3–3.

The four senators from the ACT and Northern Territory were last up for election in 2022. At that election, left-wing independent David Pocock and Labor won both ACT seats, while the NT went one Labor, one Country Liberal Party (CLP).

At this election, it’s likely Labor will gain a senator in every mainland state at the expense of the Coalition, while the Greens, One Nation, Lambie and Pocock will hold their existing seats.

The most likely outcome of this half-Senate election is 18 Labor out of 40 (up five), 13 Coalition (down five), six Greens (steady), and one each for One Nation, Lambie and Pocock (all steady). This would give the left a 25–14 win with one for Lambie.

In 2022, the 36 state senators^[3] (not up for election in 2025) were 14 Coalition, 13 Labor, six Greens and one each for One Nation, the United Australia Party (UAP) and Tammy Tyrrell. During the last term Lidia Thorpe defected from the Greens, Fatima Payman from Labor and Tyrrell from the Jacqui Lambie Network.

If Labor wins 18 seats at this half-Senate election, they will have 30 total senators out of 76, the Coalition 27, the Greens 11, One Nation two, and one each for Pocock, Lambie, the UAP, Thorpe, Payman and Tyrrell. Labor and the Greens alone would have 41 of the 76 senators, above the 39 needed for a majority.

Counting Thorpe and Payman with the left, and the UAP with the right, the left would have an overall 44–30 majority with two others (Lambie and Tyrrell).

National Senate votes and a state by state breakdown

With 74% of enrolled voters counted nationally for the Senate^[5], Labor has 35.5% of Senate votes (up 5.4% since 2022), the Coalition 29.9% (down 4.4%), the Greens 11.7% (down 0.9%), One Nation 5.6% (up 1.3%), Legalise Cannabis 3.4% and Trumpet of Patriots (ToP) 2.6%.

The national House primary votes^[6] are currently 34.7% Labor, 32.2% Coalition, 11.8% Greens, 6.3% One Nation and 1.9% ToP. Usually major parties get a lower Senate vote than a House vote owing to more parties who run in the Senate. I believe Labor is benefiting in the Senate from the lack of a viable Teal option.

In very late counting for both the House and Senate, the Greens usually gain at the Coalition’s expense as absent votes that are counted late are poor for the Coalition and good for the Greens. This would provide a further boost to Labor’s chances of gaining five senators.

In New South Wales, with 79% of enrolled counted, Labor has 2.65 quotas, the Coalition 2.08, the Greens 0.78, One Nation 0.42, Legalise Cannabis 0.23 and ToP 0.16. Labor’s third candidate is 0.23 quotas ahead of One Nation and should win.

In Victoria, with 71% of enrolled counted, Labor has 2.44 quotas, the Coalition 2.20, the Greens 0.88, One Nation 0.31, Legalise Cannabis 0.25, ToP 0.17, Family First 0.13 and Victorian Socialists 0.11. One Nation has the best chance to win outside Queensland, but Socialists’ preferences will flow strongly to Labor.

In Queensland, with 71% of enrolled counted, Labor has 2.16 quotas, the Liberal National Party 2.15, the Greens 0.74, One Nation 0.49, Gerard Rennick 0.34, ToP 0.25 and Legalise Cannabis 0.24. Labor will win two, the LNP two, the Greens one and One Nation will probably win the final seat.

In Western Australia, with 68% of enrolled counted, Labor has 2.57 quotas, the Liberals 1.83, the Greens 0.92, One Nation 0.40, Legalise Cannabis 0.28 and the Nationals 0.24. The Liberals will soak up right-wing preferences that would otherwise go to One Nation, so Labor should win the last seat.

In South Australia, with 78% of enrolled counted, Labor has 2.70 quotas, the Liberals 1.94, the Greens 0.89, One Nation 0.37, ToP 0.20 and Legalise Cannabis 0.19. Labor’s third candidate has a 0.33 quota lead over One Nation.

In Tasmania, with 84% of enrolled counted, Labor has 2.49 quotas, the Liberals 1.66, the Greens 1.14, Lambie 0.51, One Nation 0.36 and Legalise Cannabis 0.23. It’s likely Tasmania will be a status quo result: two Labor, two Liberals, one Green and one Lambie. If this occurs, Tasmania would be the only state without a loss for the Coalition.

In the ACT, with 79% of enrolled counted, Pocock has easily retained with 1.19 quotas and Labor is certain to win the second seat with 0.95 quotas. The Liberals won just 17.2% or 0.52 quotas and the Greens 0.23 quotas.

Turnout is relatively low in the NT. With 57% of enrolled counted, Labor has 1.03 quotas, the CLP 1.02, the Greens 0.33 and One Nation 0.24. Labor and the CLP will hold their two seats.

Close seats in the House

Since my last update^[7] on Wednesday, the ABC has called^[8] Melbourne, Menzies, Fremantle and Bendigo for Labor, taking Labor’s seat total to 91 of 150. The Coalition has won 40 seats, the Greens zero and all Others ten, with nine seats remaining undecided.

In the undecided seats, Labor is the clear favourite in Bullwinkel and Calwell, and currently just behind in Bean and Longman but with a good chance of overturning those deficits. The Liberals are the favourites in Flinders, Monash and Bradfield, the Greens are favourites to hold one seat (Ryan) and Teal Monique Ryan should hold Kooyong.

Read more: Explore the new House of Representatives^[9]

References

1. ^{^} previously wrote about the Senate (theconversation.com)
2. ^{^} 40 of the 76 senators (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} 36 state senators (www.abc.net.au)
4. ^{^} Mick Tsikas/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
5. ^{^} counted nationally for the Senate (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)
6. ^{^} national House primary votes (www.abc.net.au)
7. ^{^} last update (theconversation.com)
8. ^{^} ABC has called (www.abc.net.au)
9. ^{^} Explore the new House of Representatives (theconversation.com)