The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
The Times Real Estate

.

Australia may be facing another La Niña summer. We’ve found a way to predict them earlier, to help us prepare

  • Written by Mandy Freund, Lecturer, Climate Science Geography, The University of Melbourne

Meteorologists are again predicting a possible La Niña this summer, which means Australia may face wetter and cooler conditions than normal.

It would be the fourth La Niña in Australia in five years, and highlights the need for Australians to prepare for what may be an extreme weather season.

Typically, a La Niña or its counterpart, El Niño, signals its arrival earlier in the year. Signs of this potential La Niña are emerging fairly late. That’s where new research[1] by my colleagues and I may help in future.

two men look at flooded area
A possible La Niña this summer means Australia may face wetter conditions than normal. Darren England/AAP

La Niña and El Niño explained

La Niña and its opposite phase, El Niño, are created by changes in ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean’s equatorial region. Together, the two phenomena are known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

The oscillation is said to be in the positive phase during an El Niño and the negative phase during a La Niña. When sitting between the two, the cycle is in neutral phase.

Earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organization said[2] there was a 60% chance of La Niña conditions emerging by year’s end.

In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put the likelihood at 71%[3]. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is in “watch” mode[4], predicting a 50% chance of a La Niña weather pattern forming later this year.

La Niña occurs when[5] strengthening winds change currents on the ocean surface, pulling cool water up from the deep.

The winds also cause warm surface waters in the western Pacific and north of Australia, bringing increased rainfall and clouds. This usually means above-average rainfall and cooler temperatures for Australia, particularly in the east and north.

Conversely, an El Niño weather pattern generally brings hotter temperatures across Australia, and less rainfall in the east and north.

a graphic showing gradients from blue to red
The Bureau of Meteorology is in La Niña ‘watch mode’. Bureau of Meteorology

Paths of destruction

La Niña or El Niño events can cause devastation around the world.

The El Niño in 2015–16, for example, caused crops to fail and affected the food security[6] and nutrition of almost 60 million people globally.

In Australia, El Niño events can bring increased risk of drought, bushfires and heatwaves, and water shortages.

Meanwhile, rainfall associated with La Niña conditions can lead to greater crop yield[7]. But particularly heavy rainfall can wash crops away. It also heightens flood risks for some communities.

These far-reaching impacts mean it’s essential to plan ahead when a La Niña or El Niño is on the cards. But predicting these events has always been tricky.

Both types of events usually develop in the Southern Hemisphere autumn, peak in late spring or summer, and weaken by the next autumn. But it’s now late spring without a clear La Niña declaration. Why the delay?

Climate change is one factor. The Bureau of Meteorology says[8] as oceans absorb heat from global warming, it’s harder to spot the specific warming patterns linked to La Niña.

The sheer complexity of the ocean-atmosphere system adds to the difficulty. The computer models used to predict El Niño and La Niña are improving all the time. But scientists still need more information on deep ocean processes, and how winds affect the oscillation.

Predictions are hardest during the Southern Hemisphere’s autumn. That’s because the cycle then is very susceptible to change – teetering at a point[9] where either a La Niña or El Niño could develop.

That’s why the earliest an El Niño or La Niña can be predicted is usually around May or June.

But new research offers a way to predict the events much earlier – and start preparing if necessary.

man walks through dry fields
The El Niño in 2015–16 caused crops to fail. Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi/AP

Better, earlier forecasts

The study[10], which I led, assessed the likelihood of La Niña or El Niño events occurring in succession – either in the eastern or central region of the Pacific Ocean.

This distinction is important. For Australia, El Niño and La Niña events peaking in the Central Pacific[11], close to our continent, have greater impacts here compared to those peaking in the east, closer to South America.

We analysed weather observations, and the sequence of past El Niño and La Niña events, over the past 150 years. We also examined climate models for future changes in transitions between El Niño and La Niña events.

From this, we determined the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña occurring in two consecutive years.

We found most El Niño events are followed by neutral conditions the next year (with a likelihood of 37–56%).

But La Niña behaves differently. In 40% of cases, a Central Pacific El Niño could follow an Eastern Pacific La Niña. And there is a 28% chance of two consecutive La Niña events in the Central Pacific.

These results allow for more advanced predictions. By identifying patterns in this way, the odds of an El Niño or La Niña can be predicted up to a year in advance.

ocean with mountains and clouds in background
El Niño or La Niña are the result of complex interactions between winds and sea in the Pacific Ocean. Shutterstock[12]

Looking ahead

So, what does our research suggest for Australia? Will a La Niña develop here this year?

From September last year, Australia experienced a strong Eastern Pacific El Niño. So our findings suggest there is only a 17% chance of La Niña this year.

If the La Niña arrives, it will likely peak in the Central Pacific, potentially affecting Australia rainfall. But overall, any La Niña that develops this late is likely to be weak and relatively short-lived.

Our research also found that as climate change accelerates, the El Niño Southern Oscillation is likely to shift. For example, the odds of two consecutive El Niños peaking in the central Pacific region will likely increase. And we can expect fewer calm, neutral years between events[13].

We hope our research enables more accurate, long-range forecasts, giving communities additional time to plan and prepare.

References

  1. ^ new research (doi.org)
  2. ^ the World Meteorological Organization said (wmo.int)
  3. ^ put the likelihood at 71% (www.abc.net.au)
  4. ^ is in “watch” mode (www.bom.gov.au)
  5. ^ La Niña occurs when (www.bom.gov.au)
  6. ^ affected the food security (openknowledge.fao.org)
  7. ^ greater crop yield (www.exportfinance.gov.au)
  8. ^ Bureau of Meteorology says (www.theguardian.com)
  9. ^ teetering at a point (www.sydney.edu.au)
  10. ^ The study (doi.org)
  11. ^ Central Pacific (theconversation.com)
  12. ^ Shutterstock (www.shutterstock.com)
  13. ^ neutral years between events (doi.org)

Read more https://theconversation.com/australia-may-be-facing-another-la-nina-summer-weve-found-a-way-to-predict-them-earlier-to-help-us-prepare-239826

The Times Features

Itinerary to Maximize Your Two-Week Adventure in Vietnam and Cambodia

Two weeks may not seem like much, but it’s just the right time for travelers to explore the best of Vietnam and Cambodia. From the bustling streets of Hanoi to the magnificent te...

How to Protect Your Garden Trees from Wind Damage in Australia

In Australia's expansive landscape, garden trees hold noteworthy significance. They not only enhance the aesthetic appeal of our homes but also play an integral role in the local...

Brisbane Homeowners Warned: Non-Compliant Flexible Hoses Pose High Flood Risk

As a homeowner in Brisbane, when you think of the potential for flood damage to your home, you probably think of weather events. But you should know that there may be a tickin...

Argan Oil-Infused Moroccanoil Shampoo: Nourish and Revitalize Your Hair

Are you ready to transform your hair from dull and lifeless to vibrant and full of life? Look no further than the luxurious embrace of Argan Oil-Infused Moroccanoil Shampoo! In a...

Building A Strong Foundation For Any Structure

Building a home or commercial building can be very exciting. The possibilities are endless and the future is interesting. You can always change aspects of the building to meet the ...

The Role of a Family Dentist: Why Every Household Needs One

source A family dentist isn’t like your regular dentist who may specialise in a particular age group and whom you visit only when something goes wrong. A family dentist takes proa...

Times Magazine

"Eternal Nurture" by Cara Barilla: A Timeless Collection of Wisdom and Healing

Renowned Sydney-born author and educator Cara Barilla has released her latest book, Eternal Nurture, a profound collection of inspirational quotes designed to support mindfulness, emotional healing, and personal growth. With a deep commitment to ...

How AI-Driven SEO Enhancements Can Improve Headless CMS Content Visibility

Whereas SEO (search engine optimization) is critical in the digital landscape for making connections to content, much of it is still done manually keyword research, metatags, final tweaks at publication requiring a human element that takes extensiv...

Crypto Expert John Fenga Reveals How Blockchain is Revolutionising Charity

One of the most persistent challenges in the charity sector is trust. Donors often wonder whether their contributions are being used effectively or if overhead costs consume a significant portion. Traditional fundraising methods can be opaque, with...

Navigating Parenting Arrangements in Australia: A Legal Guide for Parents

Understanding Parenting Arrangements in Australia. Child custody disputes are often one of the most emotionally charged aspects of separation or divorce. Parents naturally want what is best for their children, but the legal process of determining ...

Blocky Adventures: A Minecraft Movie Celebration for Your Wrist

The Minecraft movie is almost here—and it’s time to get excited! With the film set to hit theaters on April 4, 2025, fans have a brand-new reason to celebrate. To honor the upcoming blockbuster, watchfaces.co has released a special Minecraft-inspir...

The Ultimate Guide to Apple Watch Faces & Trending Wallpapers

In today’s digital world, personalization is everything. Your smartwatch isn’t just a timepiece—it’s an extension of your style. Thanks to innovative third-party developers, customizing your Apple Watch has reached new heights with stunning designs...

LayBy Shopping