Mon Aug 19

Kamala Harris’ polls surge stalls ahead of Democratic National Convention

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate ^[1] of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 47.1–44.6% with 4.2% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In my previous US politics article ^[2] last Wednesday, Harris led Trump by 46.8–43.7%.

Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2%. By the election, Biden will be almost 82, Trump will be 78 and Harris will be 60.

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner takes all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

In the states narrowly won by Biden in 2020, Harris leads Trump by three points in Michigan, 3.4 points in Wisconsin, 1.5 points in Pennsylvania and 2.1 points in Arizona. Georgia and Nevada are the only Biden-won state that have Trump ahead, by 1.4 points in Georgia and 0.2 in Nevada. Harris is barely ahead by 0.1 points in North Carolina, a state Trump won in 2020.

Since last Wednesday, most movement in state polls has been slightly favourable to Trump, but not in North Carolina. If Nevada and North Carolina are undecided because of the near-ties in polls, Harris currently wins the Electoral College ^[3] by 281–235 with 22 electoral votes undecided (Harris led by 287–251 last Wednesday).

Silver’s model gives Harris a 53.5% chance to win the Electoral College, a drop from 56% last Wednesday. It gives Harris a 65% chance to win the national popular vote. Harris needs about a two-point win in the popular vote to be the Electoral College favourite. It’s near a 50–50 chance for either Harris or Trump, but Harris is the slight favourite.

The Democratic National Convention will be held from Monday to Thursday this week. Normally major party presidential candidates are very well known to voters by the convention as they need to win primaries that are held early in an election year. Harris has only been the Democratic candidate since Biden’s withdrawal, so the convention is an opportunity for her to personally appeal to voters.

Conventions usually give a temporary bounce to their party’s candidate, which fades in the weeks following a convention. Silver said on Friday ^[5] that his model will expect Harris to be leading by four to five points nationally after the convention.

If this occurs, Harris’ win probability will not change much. If Harris only leads by two points after the convention, it would be an underperformance and her win probability would decrease. If she leads by six, she would be overperforming and her win probability would increase.

In economic data, US headline inflation ^[6] rose 0.2% in July after dropping 0.1% in June, for a 12-month rate of 2.9%, the lowest since March 2021. Core inflation rose 0.2% in July for a 12-month rate of 3.2%, the lowest since April 2021. The lower inflation is likely to encourage the US Federal Reserve Board ^[7] to cut interest rates.

Real (inflation-adjusted) hourly earnings ^[8] were up 0.1% in July, but real weekly earnings were down 0.2% owing to a drop in hours worked. In May and June, real earnings were up 0.8–0.9%.

Coalition gains large primary vote lead in NSW

A New South Wales state Resolve poll ^[9] for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal Resolve polls in July and August from a sample of more than 1,000, gave the Coalition 38% of the primary vote (up three since June), Labor 30% (down two), the Greens 12% (up one), independents 14% (down one) and others 6% (down one).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate, but Kevin Bonham estimated ^[10] a Coalition lead by 51–49%, a three-point gain for the Coalition since June. Despite the poor voting intentions, Labor incumbent Chris Minns maintained an unchanged 38–13% lead over the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier.

There has been much media attention on the NSW Liberals’ bungled council nominations ^[11]. This poll was taken before the nominations fiasco, but in any case voters are unlikely to care much about local councils.

By 56–23%, voters in this poll supported ^[12] the state government’s plans to introduce laws to prevent “no grounds evictions”, so that landlords need a “commonsense and reasonable cause” to evict a tenant.

Federal polls: Labor and Coalition tied

A national Essential poll ^[13], conducted August 7–11 from a sample of 1,132, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 47% each including undecided (47–46% to Labor in late July). Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 28% Labor (down four), 14% Greens (up three), 7% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (steady) and 6% undecided (steady).

Voters were pessimistic when asked whether economic indicators ^[14] would get better, get worse or stay about the same in the next 12 months. By 67–11%, they thought the cost of living would get worse. Global economic conditions were expected to get worse by 56–11%, employment by 39–13% and wages by 28–16%.

When asked why Indigenous Australians experience disadvantage, 58% said it was the result of personal decisions they make, while 42% said it was systemic: a product of colonial history and ongoing discrimination.

Big business was far ahead when respondents were asked whether government listens to groups when making decisions, with 60% saying government listens to big business well. Indigenous Australians were the next highest at 34% listens to well.

A national Morgan poll ^[15], conducted August 5–11 from a sample of 1,671, also had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50%, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the July 29 to August 4 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 29.5% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (up two), 5% One Nation (down 0.5), 9.5% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (down one).

The headline figure uses respondent allocated preferences. If preferences are allocated by 2022 election flows, Labor led by 51–49%, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.

Changes in South Australia

Since Labor won the March 2022 South Australian state election, there hasn’t been a SA state poll released. The Poll Bludger reported ^[16] last Thursday that Vincent Tarzia had become the new Liberal leader on August 12, replacing David Speirs who resigned on August 8.

The Poll Bludger also reported on a SA state draft redistribution. Independent-held Frome switches from being nationally Labor to Liberal on a two-party basis. Two seats in Adelaide will be more favourable to Labor at the next election.