Labor takes a hit in Resolve polls in Queensland and Victoria
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The Queensland state election will be held in October. A Resolve poll[1] for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from February to May from a sample of 947, gave the Liberal National Party 43% of the primary vote (up six since September to December), Labor 26% (down seven), the Greens 13% (up one), One Nation 8% (up one), independents 8% (up one) and others 2% (steady).
Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party figure, but The Poll Bludger estimated[2] the LNP would lead in this poll by 56–44.
A Queensland YouGov poll[3] in April gave the LNP a 56–44 lead and a March Newspoll gave them a 54–46 lead. So this poll is another indicating Labor is headed for a heavy defeat in October.
Labor Premier Steven Miles had a net likeability of -15, compared with former premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s -17 in December. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability improved five points to +14. Crisafulli led Miles by 39–28 as preferred premier (39–34 against Palaszczuk in December).
Victorian Labor also slumps
A Victorian state Resolve poll[4] for The Age, conducted with the federal Resolve polls in mid-April and mid-May from a sample of 1,104, gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote (up two since March), Labor 28% (down five), the Greens 13% (steady), independents 16% (up four) and others 6% (down one).
Analyst Kevin Bonham estimated[5] this poll would be a 50–50 tie after preferences, a three-point gain for the Coalition since March.
The 16% “independent” vote is very likely exaggerated, as a suitable independent won’t stand in all seats at a general election. The surge for independents likely reflects disgruntled former Labor voters who currently say they will vote independent but may change their minds by the next election, which isn’t due until 2026.
Labor Premier Jacinta Allan led the Liberals’ John Pesutto as preferred premier by 31–26 (34–25 in March). Treasurer Tim Pallas had a 38–26 poor over good rating. By 52–32, voters thought taking away funding from major infrastructure projects promised at the last election was a broken promise over a practical change.
Federal Freshwater poll remains tied
A national Freshwater poll[6], conducted May 17–19 from a sample of 1,000, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged from April. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up one), 14% Greens (up one) and 14% for all Others (down two[7]).
These primary votes suggest an increased two party vote for Labor that was presumably lost in rounding. Freshwater has been leaning to the Coalition this term relative to other pollsters.
Albanese’s net approval was down two to -9, with 45% unfavourable and 37% favourable. Dutton’s net approval was steady at -9. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 46–37 (45–39 in April).
The Coalition had a three-point lead over Labor on cost of living and a ten-point lead on economic management, but Labor improved on both since April by three to four points.
On the effect of the May 14 budget on household finances, 24% thought they would be better off, 46% no different and 23% worse off. On the budget’s effect on interest rates, 39% thought they would increase, 28% have no effect and 11% decrease.
Essential poll: Coalition retains narrow lead
A national Essential poll[9], conducted May 15–19 from a sample of 1,149, gave the Coalition a 47–46 lead including undecided, unchanged from early May. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 10% Greens (down three), 8% One Nation (up one), 1% UAP (steady), 8% for all Others (up one) and 6% undecided (down one).
By 64–27, voters did not think the budget[10] would make a meaningful difference on cost of living. On the A$300 electricity bill rebate, 60% thought only those on low and middle incomes should receive it, 35% all households and 5% nobody.
On government intervention in the economy, 48% said the government should intervene more, 16% less and 36% thought the current level of intervention about right.
By 44–17, voters supported the government’s plan for the approval of new gas projects to 2050 and beyond. On renewables vs gas, 74% thought we need a long-term gas supply for times when renewables are unable to meet demand, while 26% thought allowing the gas industry to continue only delays the transition to renewables.
Morgan poll: Labor down but just ahead
A national Morgan poll[11], conducted May 13–19 from a sample of 1,674, gave Labor a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the May 6–12 Morgan poll. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 30.5% Labor (down 1.5), 14.5% Greens (up one), 5.5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (up one) and 4% others (down 0.5).
More voters rate Jim Chalmers’ performance as ‘good’ rather than ‘poor’ in a new poll.
Dean Lewins/AAP[12]
Additional Resolve questions
I previously covered[13] the weak post-budget Resolve poll for Labor, which was conducted for Nine newspapers. On the immigration level[14] of 528,000 people last year, 66% thought it too high, 23% about right and 2% too low.
On the forecast immigration of 260,000 per year, 50% thought it too high, 35% about right and 4% too low. The too high number on the forecast dropped five points since December.
By 41–29, voters rated Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ performance[15] good over poor, down from a 47–20 good rating after the May 2023 budget. Former Liberal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg had a 53–28 good rating after the March 2022 budget, but the Coalition still lost the May 2022 election.
By 57–31, voters agreed that if they had a major expense of a few thousand dollars, they would struggle to afford it (55–34 in April). This is the highest level of agreement in Resolve’s polls on this question. By 52–24, voters thought interest rate rises more about domestic factors in Australia than international factors beyond the government’s control (48–26 in April[16]).
References
- ^ Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Poll Bludger estimated (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ Queensland YouGov poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ Victorian state Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Analyst Kevin Bonham estimated (twitter.com)
- ^ Freshwater poll (www.afr.com)
- ^ down two (theconversation.com)
- ^ Con Chronis/AAP (www.photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ did not think the budget (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ Dean Lewins/AAP (www.photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ previously covered (theconversation.com)
- ^ immigration level (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ voters rated Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ performance (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ April (theconversation.com)
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