Wed Nov 1

Labor recovers in Morgan after post-referendum slump; LNP leads in Queensland

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A federal Morgan poll ^[1], conducted October 22–29 from a sample ^[2] of 1,375, gave Labor a 53–47 lead, a 3.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. An earlier poll ^[3], taken in the week after the Voice referendum was heavily defeated, was the first by any pollster this term to give the Coalition a lead, by 50.5–49.5, a 4.5-point gain for the Coalition since the pre-referendum Morgan poll.

Primary votes in the earlier poll were 36% Coalition, 32% Labor, 14% Greens, 4.5% One Nation, 8.5% independents and 5% others. If preferences were distributed according to how they flowed at the 2022 federal election, Labor would have led by about 53–47. Respondent allocated preferences were very weak for Labor.

In the current poll, primary votes were 35% Coalition, 32.5% Labor, 15% Greens and 17.5% for all Others. Labor had a better flow of respondent preferences, explaining its rebound.

Greens slump in Essential poll owing to methods change

In a national Essential poll ^[4], conducted October 25–29 from a sample of 1,149, Labor led by 48–46 including undecided voters, down from a 50–45 lead in Essential’s pre-referendum poll in early October. This is Labor’s narrowest lead this term in this poll, beating the previous narrowest four-point lead in mid-September.

Primary votes were 34% Coalition (up two), 32% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (down four), 7% One Nation (up one), 3% UAP (up one), 9% for all Others (up two) and 6% undecided (up one).

Essential has been recording higher Greens votes than other pollsters, and the slump here likely reflects their adding of education level ^[5] to weighting factors. Essential greatly overstated ^[6] “yes” support at the Voice referendum.

In other questions ^[7], 38% said Australia was not doing enough to address climate change (down one since April), 36% said we were doing enough (up three) and 17% doing too much (up one). Since Labor’s election in May 2022, the “not doing enough” percentage has dropped from the low to mid 40s to the high 30s.

On several environmental issues, more people thought the government was not doing enough now than in June. On the most important drivers of energy price increases, 28% (up four since October 2022) blamed excessive profits by energy companies, while 19% (down one) blamed efforts to fight climate change.

By 50–33, voters supported Australia developing nuclear power plants for electricity generation (50–32 in September 2021). On the cost of energy sources, 38% thought renewable energy the most expensive, 34% that nuclear energy was most expensive and 28% fossil fuels.

By 50–43, voters did not trust the government to lead the renewable energy transition. By 57–31, they thought it unlikely Australia would reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Newspoll aggregate data from late August to mid-October

The Australian has released ^[8] the aggregate results of voting intentions and leaders’ ratings for the four Newspolls conducted in the lead-up to the October 14 Voice referendum. These polls were taken from August 28 to October 12 from an overall sample of 6,378.

Labor led nationally by 54–46, by 56–44 in New South Wales, 54–46 in Victoria, 57–43 in South Australia, 53–47 in Western Australia and 57–43 in Tasmania. Queensland was the one state with a Coalition lead, by 52–48.

The Poll Bludger ^[9] said the last time Newspoll released aggregate data was from February to early April, when Newspoll was conducted by YouGov not the current Pyxis. Since the last aggregate release, Labor is up one in NSW, down four in Victoria, down two in Queensland, down four in WA and up one in SA.

By educational attainment, Labor led by 55–45 among university educated people and 53–47 among those without tertiary education or with a TAFE/technical education. This flat pattern is very different to education breakdowns for the Voice referendum, where “no” was way ahead with the latter two categories, but “yes” led with the university educated.

Queensland YouGov poll: 52–48 to LNP

The Queensland election will be held in October 2024. A YouGov poll ^[11] for The Courier Mail, conducted October 4–10 from a sample of 1,013, gave the Liberal National Party a 52–48 lead, a one-point gain for the LNP since the previous YouGov Queensland poll in early April.

Primary votes were 41% LNP (up two), 33% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (down two) and 5% for all Others (steady).

Leaders’ approval ratings were not asked in April, so changes are compared with a YouGov poll in early December 2022. Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net approval dropped 19 points to -20, with 52% dissatisfied and 32% satisfied. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net approval improved seven points to +11.

Crisafulli led Palasczuk by 37–35 as better premier, a reversal of a 31–29 Palaszczuk lead in April.

Labor has been sliding in the Queensland polls this year, with a September Redbridge poll ^[12] giving the LNP a 55–45 lead.

Labor has governed in Queensland since early 2015 ^[13], but federally it is the most conservative state. It was the only state the Coalition won at the 2022 federal election ^[14], and is easily the worst state ^[15] for “yes” at the Voice referendum. It may be more difficult for Labor to win Queensland state elections in the future.

UK byelections and Argentine election

I covered the two October 19 UK byelections and the October 22 Argentine presidential election for The Poll Bludger ^[16]. UK Labour gained both seats that had byelections from the Conservatives on massive swings.

In Argentina, the centre-left Sergio Massa led the far-right Javier Milei by 36.7–30.0 with 23.8% for a conservative candidate. There will be a runoff between Massa and Milei on November 19.